Keeneland is back in action on Friday with a 10-race card headlined by the Doubledogdare (G3) for fillies and mares at 1 1/16-miles. The sequence kicks off with a MSW for 3YO fillies and closes with a full field two-turn turf race for first-level allowance foes. Let’s dive in.
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
Race 7:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 7 Order Restored; 13 Lovely Words; 11 True Passion
Backups: None
Forecast: I am going to lean on a trio of lightly raced fillies in this auction restricted MSW at 6-furlongs, including top choice #7 Order Restored. The daughter of Tom’s d’Etat raced twice in Arkansas this winter for trainer John Ortiz with the debut being the far better of the two runs. It also was the race over a fast main track. The Keeneland September 2023 purchase has strong speed from the gate, attracts Jose Ortiz, and returns to the races for a barn that is 3 for 9 at the meet thus far.
Order Restored’s stablemate #13 Lovely Words is a must use as well if she draws in off the AE list. The Thousand Words filly has not raced since last fall when she finished a solid fourth over this surface on debut. She attracts Luis Saez and should be involved early from her outside draw. I will also use second-time starter #11 True Passion. The Lonnie Briley trainee chased a fast pace on debut at Oaklawn on March 30. She comes in off a bullet 5-furlong drill in 58.1 at Churchill Downs last week and should move forward off that first try.
Race 8:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 6 That’s Right; 12 Santorini; 11 Doncho
Backups: 4 Big Invasion
Forecast: The field in this $140k allowance event going 5.5-furlongs over the sod is led by class dropper #4 Big Invasion. The Christophe Clement trainee rolls in to his 6YO debut having earned over $1.1M already and having faced tougher competition throughout most of his career. However, he has not raced since the Breeders’ Cup and has not quite been the same horse he was at the peak of his career. He will have to work out a trip to win, so I will use him only as a backup.
There does not appear to be a ton of speed signed on so I am definitely interested in a pair of runners that will certainly get the jump on the morning line favorite. One of those is #6 That’s Right. The 6YO gelding has been freshened by Brad Cox after being beaten to the punch in back-to-back stake races in Florida by Coppola. Without the Dale Romans runner entered in this spot, the son of Goldencents has a shot to find a much more comfortable forward position instead of being caught in chase mode throughout. #11 Doncho also should benefit from the likely race shape. The Michelle Lovell trainee tries the lawn for the first time in his first start since last June. He has ability, but the surface switch and time off are the obvious questions. I will still include though given his obvious upside. #12 Santorini is the long shot I like most. The Twirling Candy gelding has not raced since a trio of runs over the Turfway Park all-weather this winter. The outside draw, cutback to one-turn, and presence of Flavien Prat make this 15-1-ML shot worth including.
Race 9:
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 1 Just F Y I
Backups: 6 Candied
Forecast: There is not much speed signed on in this year’s Doubledogdare (G3), which certainly should benefit #1 Just F Y I. The George Krikorian homebred failed as the 4-5-favorite last out, but she struggled to relax in her first start since the Acorn (G1) last June. She finds a field that lacks other early speed and gets back to what should be a more preferred two-turn event. If the Bill Mott runner relaxes better on the backside, she should be tough to catch late.
#6 Candied is the morning line choice. She should get a perfect stalking trip in her first start since a third-place finish to Thorpedo Anna in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1). I was a bit underwhelmed with this filly’s last few efforts as a 3YO, but if Just FYI fails to finish again, this race is likely to fall right into her lap.
Race 10:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 7 Aspen Dawn; 6 Expensive Queen; 10 Alimara; 11 Unreasonable
Backups: 2 Mystifying
Forecast: #2 Mystifying ran very well in her turf debut at Saratoga last September finishing second to a Chad Brown filly from well off the pace, but has not raced since. Plus, her trainer Shug McGaughey is winless at the meet thus far and just 1 for 18 over the last 30 days. This makes her 9-5-morning line price tough to swallow despite the obvious move up on the surface switch. Like Big Invasion, I will include only as a backup with my strongest value opinions.
#7 Aspen Dawn makes her first start since February in Florida. She should appreciate the cutback in distance. Trainer Brendan Walsh is having another strong spring meet. His European import #6 Expensive Queen is a must use if you are taking on the morning line choice. #10 Alimara did not have things ideally last out at Tampa Bay. Perhaps the presence of blinkers for the initial time and Flavien Prat will move her forward. #11 Unreasonable is a wild-card like Expensive Queen. The Christophe Clement trainee kept solid company in the United Kingdom last year and gets Lasix for the first time.
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