After a week off on the Road to the Kentucky Derby for a Pegasus World Cup (G1) detour, the newly turned 3YOs are back on center stage. The Southwest at Oaklawn Park was postponed until next Friday and the Withers at Aqueduct is up in the air due to frigid temperatures in the Northeast, so once again Hallandale Beach will be the focus. The $275,000 Holy Bull (G3) picks things up on Gulfstream Park’s Road to the Florida Derby after the Macho Macho Man kicked things off on January 3. Here are my horse-by-horse thoughts on the Derby prep that awards 20 points to the winner on Saturday afternoon.
1-Incredibolt (pictured): Trainer Riley Mott sends out this son of Bolt d’Oro for his first start as a 3YO after a pair of impressive wins to end his 2YO season. The Pin Oak Stud colt raced against the flow in a sprint at Ellis to kick off his career and since then has done nothing wrong rattling off two straight strong finishes to win races over the Churchill Downs main track. There is no doubt Incredibolt can finish with energy, but the question is whether he is fully cranked and if he gets the setup he needs to be at his best. I will not be surprised if he takes another step forward in the Holy Bull and presents himself as a top contender for the Run for the Roses, but he may have too much to do work late in the Saturday finale. Therefore, I will pass on wagering on him this weekend with an eye towards even bigger races down the line.
2-Roger That Dana: The Florida-bred is tough to endorse on the Win end in the Holy Bull, but he could play a major factor in the outcome nonetheless. The Awesome Slew ridgling dominated a field of fellow Florida-breds on debut this fall, but has been unable to go with the winner in a pair of spots since. From a class perspective, the Luis Ramirez trainee is up against it, but he has early speed and an inside draw, which could make things more difficult for those in with a bigger chance to get to the wire first.
3-Project Ace: Trainer Dale Romans cross-listed this son of War of Will in the Withers at Aqueduct, but the Albaugh Family Stable colt has certainly showed the ability finish with serious energy thus far. The question for him is he can he find any early speed. Project Ace was well out of it early in all three starts as a 2YO, so has certainly needed things to go his way. He picked up the pieces late against a wire-to-wire winner to kick off his career and then continued to come with strong late runs against maiden fields when stretching out to two-turns. Project Ace is likely up against it in the Holy Bull since there is not a ton of early speed signed on, but if they happen to go at it early, he should be absolutely rolling late.
4-Global Aviator: Heading into Thursday, trainer Rohan Crichton was 5-14 over the last 30 days for a $4.21 ROI. The red-hot conditioner will take a swing with this first out winner by Global Campaign. Global Aviator broke poorly in his first start going 6-furlongs over this surface back in late November, but made a strong middle move and had just enough late to hang on by a neck. He has not raced since and gets thrown to the wolves in his first start against winners. He could be a factor early on the stretch out if he cleans up his gate issues, but this is a tall task for the $12,000 FTK October 2024 purchase.
5-Cannoneer: On the other side of things is this $1.75M Keeneland September 2024 purchase who returns to the races for the first time since late November for trainer Brad Cox. Cox debuted the Into Mischief colt in a live MSW event on June 1 where he let the public down after breaking awkwardly and rushing up to show speed before tiring late. Cox gave the Kentucky-bred time and he came back much more professional in his eye-popping victory at 7-furlongs in Louisville. The 7-figure purchase has been in Florida since late December and has pointed to this spot since. Like all Derby prospects in January, Cannoneer has lots of questions to answer, but this is a race he needs to win given race shape and distance if he plans to move forward and be a major player on the first Saturday in May.
6-Buetane: Will not make the trip cross-country unfortunately due to his flight to Florida being cancelled.
7-Nearly: This Florida-bred got off to a slow start in a 6-furlong event on debut in New York and had no shot from there in a race where they ran 1-2-3 around the track, but the Not This Time colt has been dominant in two races since arriving in the Sunshine State. Trainer Todd Pletcher has 2YO champion Ted Noffey gearing up for the Fountain of Youth next month, but in the meanwhile may find out he has another top contender under his care on Saturday. I have two concerns though. Firstly, Nearly has not been great from the gate. He needs to fix that obviously at some point. In terms of his chances on Saturday, I am concerned about regression. He has rattled off two big efforts in a row. Not only does he need to prove he can do similar at a route of ground, but needs to avoid a bounce off his five-length score on January 2. I will let him beat me at his likely price in this year’s Holy Bull, but certainly will not be surprised by another big run.
8-Bravaro: Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. ran 1-2 in the Pegasus World Cup last Saturday. Joseph looks to spring another upset in the feature with this New York-bred colt that enters the Holy Bull a perfect 2 for 2. The son of Upstart won both of his starts going away as a juvenile, but those efforts game against much weaker competition. That said, he comes into his first try against open company foes off a strong series of drills at Palm Meadows and should be able to avoid a wide voyage into the first turn given the scratch of Buetane to his inside. It would be a big surprise if Bravaro put in a big run on Saturday, but this barn has done it before.
9-Game for It: Bypassing the Holy Bull with his eyes on the Sam F. Davis at Tampa next week.
Unfortunately, finding value on top in the 2026 Holy Bull (G3) looks tough to achieve with one of the three logicals likely to get to the wire first. Perhaps, a horse like Project Ace can come running late to spruce up the exotics, but this is Cannoneer’s race to lose. He should find a prominent position early under Irad Ortiz and be tough to get by late if he can handle the two-turn test.
-- Photo: Coady/Churchill Downs
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