After a fun final Saturday of the Championship Meet led by Tappan Street’s win over Sovereignty in the Florida Derby (G1), the Rainbow 6 Pool must go this afternoon. With $288k in carryover money, track officials are estimating a Closing Day pool of around $3M. Hopefully we can end the meet with a bang!
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
Race 7:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 8 Free to Roam; 1 Wink of an Eye; 12 Arisaema
Backups: None
Forecast: This non-winners of two over the lawn that kicks things off is no picnic, but I am willing to fade the two ML choices. 5-2-favorite #10 Carrington was caught wide throughout last out against slightly better, but draws outside again. Trainer Gustavo Delgado turns to the apprentice Micah Husbands, who is unlikely to make a positive difference. #5 Gimme Mo Baby should get the right trip, but has shown very little will to win. She got a great voyage last out under Dylan Davis, yet still failed to hit the board. You can have her at 3-1.
#8 Free to Roam is a must use given the likely honest early tempo. She has not raced since last September, but when trainer Steve Klesaris turns to Irad Ortiz Jr. he means business. They have clicked at 20% over a 112-start sample size for an impressive $2.29 ROI. I will also include longshot #1 Wink of an Eye. The full-sister to $616k earner Lure Him In has to prove herself over the sod, but should get a perfect ground saving trip under Luca Panici. #12 Arisaema also has the right running style, but has to overcome the far outside draw. Her maiden victory came over this turf course. She could be making the last move.
Race 8:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 4 Only in America
Backups: 6 Shangrala Road
Forecast: This two-turn MSW event for 3YOs is a lot less exciting from a gambling perspective because it appears to be a two-horse race between the two favorites. #6 Shangrala Road was made the 8-5-favorite by oddsmaker Brian Nadeau off of his well-beaten second to Disruptor going 7-furlongs on debut. A move forward is expected, but I prefer second choice #4 Only in America. He has two routes already under his belt already and ran over a goofy inside speed favoring surface at Fair Grounds last out. I have been high on this horse throughout the winter and will be disappointed if he does not put forth a big effort this afternoon.
Race 9:
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 9 Top Recruit
Backups: 2 Billy the Greek; 3 Bold Looker
Forecast: There is not a ton of speed signed on in this $6250 open claimer at one-mile over the main track. This should benefit #9 Top Recruit most. The 5YO gelding is one of two entered for leading owner Ken Ramsey and trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. He has far more dirt experience than his stablemate and will be a better price.
His barn buddy #2 Billy the Greek is the morning line choice and handles these with his best over the all-weather, but he has never raced over a fast main track making 2-1 tough to get excited about. #3 Bold Looker has recent dirt form for a hot barn, but finished a non-threatening third last out despite being on the right part of the racetrack. I do not trust him either, but a repeat of his last could prove to be enough if the pace is hotter than expected.
Race 10:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 5 Dancing On Our Own; 4 Counterintelligence; 2 Mildred Pierce
Backups: None
Forecast: I have little interest in 7-2-morning line favorite #3 Restless Dreamer or 4-1-second choice #9 Annulled in this MSW event for 3YOs and upward over the grass where I like #5 Dancing On Our Own best. Trainer George Weaver has been making all the right moves of late winning with 6 of 21 over the last 30 days. Weaver stretches this daughter of Cairo Prince out to two-turns after she had no shot when breaking slow and caught wide throughout in a 5-furlong dash in mid-February. A move forward is definitely likely. Hopefully it is good enough to get it done at what should be a playable price. I will also include the well-bred first-time starter #2 Mildred Pierce and the Chad Brown trainee with experience #4 Counterintelligence.
Race 11:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 4 Ejtimaa; 1 Soulmate; 7 Alley Oop; 8 Honesto
Backups: None
Forecast: The pace should be contentious in the final race of the meet over the all-weather given the presence of #5 Lamplighter Jack and #6 K.C. Chief. #1 Soulmate and #7 Alley Oop Johnny are amongst those that should get first run on the speeds. They are must uses, but I will also include a pair of prices in #4 Ejtimaa and #8 Honesto. Honesto has 5 wins over this course and should get a favorable outside stalking trip. Ejtimaa ships in from Tampa for owner/trainer Mike Dini. He has won 5 of 12 and will benefit immensely from a fast first half mile.
Race 12:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 3 Baby Lala; 1 Bit of Frost; 5 Keepthedreamalive; 6 Big Magic
Backups: None
Forecast: The meet concludes with a MSW on the sod for 3YO fillies where #12 Obeissante may be bred to move forward on the stretch out and surface switch, but is tough to endorse at 5-2. She did minimal running on debut, which is forgivable, but drawing the far outside post makes her task a tough one. I will use several in hopes of besting the Wertheimer Et Frere homebred, including 15-1-shot #3 Baby Lala, who had no shot last out when caught wide throughout and against the flow and #1 Bit of Frost, who aims to give trainer Vickie Oliver her first win of the meet.
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