In addition to a slew of traditional wagering opportunities on a very busy Saturday of action, there is a new option available to horseplayers called the Future Stars Pick 5. The $1 minimum, 15% takeout wager features the 2YO stakes at Aqueduct, Keeneland, and Santa Anita. It will be listed as a separate wagering option on 1/ST BET and Xpressbet and you know I will be taking part.
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
Frizette Stakes (G1)
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 2 The Queens M G
Backups: 3 Pondering
Forecast: I had to call a late audible here with the massive scratch of 3-5-morning line favorite, #8 Senza Parole. The Don Alberto Stable homebred was dominant on debut and looked like a standout, but will be out for the remainder of the year. This makes the experienced #2 The Queens M G the horse to beat. The Thousand Words filly won on debut at 45-1 and followed it up with easy victories this summer at Saratoga in the Schuylerville and Adriondack (G3). She got caught up in a battle on the front end when we saw her last in the Spinaway (G1), but that came over an off track. I expect her to rebound in this one.
#3 Pondering lacks the resume of The Queens M G, but was very good on debut at Ellis Park for Brendan Walsh before chasing the pace and tiring in the aforementioned Spinaway. She should bounce back as Flavien Prat jumps aboard for the first time.
Champagne Stakes (G1)
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 9 Executive Order; 10 Chancer McPatrick
Backups: 7 Smoken Wicked
Forecast: Trainer Chad Brown has won this race two of the last three years and appears to have a huge shot to do so in 2024 with #10 Chancer McPatrick. The $725k OBS April 2024 purchase enters the Champagne a perfect 2 for 2 after his half-length score in the Hopeful (G1) in early September. I like that he took a significant step forward in that first try against winners from a figures perspective. It bodes well for his chances in here, as does the likely contentious pace. The only real concern is his lack of gate speed at a short price. With that in mind, I will turn to #9 Executive Order as my top choice. The Maryland-bred son of Unified should be a big price after crushing restricted MSW company at Saratoga in late August for trainer Phil Serpe. The last 2YO Serpe won with on debut was Leave No Trace who went on to win the Spinaway and finished second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. This gelding can run a little.
#7 Smoken Wicked has progressed in all four starts for trainer Dallas Stewart. From a race shape perspective, I struggle to see the trip he wins with, but at 12-1 on the line I will use as a backup.
Oak Leaf Stakes (G2)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 8 Non Compliant
Backups: 3 Tenma; 1 Rio Del Sol
Forecast: The first of two 2YO graded stakes at “The Great Race Place” features four Bob Baffert trainees in this group of eight. As one would expect, I landed on one of the Baffert’s in #8 Non Compliant. The Tiz the Law filly broke sharp on debut from the rail and then relaxed professionally before sealing the deal under Juan Hernandez. She now moves to an outside post in her first start around two-turns.
#3 Tenma is one of the other Baffert runners. She has shown an affinity for the wire in both starts winning by a neck and a nose. The ability to win close races as a young horse should not be underestimated, but the addition of blinkers after the two wins is a bit of a question mark. I will use her as a backup along with long shot #1 Rio Del Sol. The Michael McCarthy filly finished third in her lone start to #6 Showers and enters this Grade 2 event a maiden. She needs to take a huge step forward to beat these, but I like the confidence McCarthy is showing in the daughter of American Freedom. Perhaps, she will make the last move if the pace is hot early.
Breeders’ Futurity (G1)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 4 Handsome Pants; 5 East Avenue
Backups: 1 Ferocious
Forecast: #1 Ferocious is listed as the 8-5-morning line favorite after re-rallying to finish second beaten half a length in the Hopeful (G1) last month. The extremely pricey son of Flatter dominated over the off track on debut and is hard to knock on paper, but visually underwhelmed in his first stakes try last month. The colt was under a ride early on and it appeared he would be off the board at 3 to 5, but ended up passing the majority of the field in the end. He is a tough read, but swallowing the chalk seems less than ideal.
#5 East Avenue was bet down to 6-5-favoritism on debut at Ellis Park for Brendan Walsh and ran to his price. The well-bred Godolphin homebred has to deal with plenty of others that want to be on or near the lead, but his class and ability are apparent. #4 Handsome Pants feels like the value play. The Daredevil colt got a perfect trip under Brian Hernandez Jr. in his debut score at Churchill Downs last month, but I am not sure I want to hold that against him. Not only, did he show serious professionalism winning at two-turns on debut, but he could get a similar trip on Saturday. He is my top choice given his likely off odds.
American Pharoah (G1)
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 7 Getaway Car (pictured)
Backups: None
Forecast: Hall of Famer Bob Baffert has a strong three-headed monster as he hopes to win the American Pharoah for the fourth consecutive year. I like #7 Getaway Car most. The Curlin colt was awesome in his first two starts before getting caught up in a wicked speed duel in the Del Mar Futurity (G1) last out. The $700k Keeneland September 2023 purchase easily disposed of the other speed, but tired late to finish fourth. Now, Baffert takes the blinkers off and stretches him out to a route of ground. I expect him to relax far better early and finish with authority. Hopefully that is good enough to win the lions’ share of the $300k purse and stamp himself as one of the favorites in next month’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1).
Good luck with this fun new wager!
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