Just three more weeks left in our ongoing “Triple Crown Prep Races Money-Back Special” promotion that began back in early February. For those just checking in for the spring, remember to register on the promotional landing page for this offer, which rewards you up to $10 back on your first Win bet if your horse finishes second or third. We have the first of two huge Saturdays on Road to the Kentucky Derby with another massive one next weekend. Here are the horses I plan to use my Money Back insurance on in the Florida Derby, Arkansas Derby, and UAE Derby.
Florida Derby (G1), Gulfstream Park - Race 14
The Florida Derby came up strong this year with the top two from the Fountain of Youth (G2), the winner of the Holy Bull (G3), and the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) victor all set to break from the gate at 6:42 PM eastern. #6 Nearly and #9 The Puma both bring strong resumes into their first 9-furlong test, but the top two finishers from the Fountain of Youth are in a tier above them at the moment. #4 Commandment beat #2 Chief Wallabee by a neck in a big run from both colts in late February and give me no reason to expect regression in their third starts of the form cycle. The question is which one to back. Chief Wallabee appears to have the higher ceiling, while Commandment is probably more likely to fire given his foundation. This one feels like the classy Chief Wallabee’s race to lose given the inside draw and obvious talent, but if he is bet significantly harder than Commandment, I will be pivoting in terms of a Money Back Win wager. Either way, it should be a good one to close an outstanding card in Hallandale Beach on Saturday afternoon.
Play: #2 Chief Wallabee (2-1 ML)
Arkansas Derby (G1), Oaklawn Park - Race 13
Sam F. Davis winner #6 Renegade is the likeliest winner of Saturday’s $1.5M Arkansas Derby, but his resume is not strong enough for me to endorse as a wager at his 3-2-ML price. Not only does he try the unique Oaklawn surface for the initial time, but also may not get an ideal setup for his off-the-pace run. I will certainly back this Win bet up with a 6-3 exacta, but I give #3 Blackout Time a big shot to rebound from his underwhelming fourth-place effort off the bench in the Rebel (G2). On the surface, the son of Not This Time sort of just ran around the racetrack, but it felt like a clear prep with jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. more than willing to give up valuable ground throughout the race. I do not expect that to be the case on Saturday. Instead, expect the veteran rider to find a perfect pocket spot off the early leaders and hopefully have far more left to give when they turn for home. It is now or never for the runner-up in last year’s Breeders’ Futurity (G1) to Ted Noffey. At his price, I will wager he delivers.
Play: Blackout Time (6-1 ML)
UAE Derby (G2), Meydan - Race 4
The lone international race to reward 100-points to the winner on the Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard goes to post at 9:30 AM eastern where I will back #5 Salloom. The son of Authentic was made the heavy public choice in the Road to the Derby Conditions Stakes on February 25, but broke through the gate prior to the start and forced to scratch. It is good to see his connections opt to bring him back for this $1M event at 1 3/16-miles, which is enough for me to back him at this price. His dominant win back in late January shows that when his head is in the game, he is capable of firing a big shot. Hopefully, he fires one good enough to get him to Louisville for a big race in early May.
Play: #5 Salloom (4-1 ML)
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