We got rolling with a pair of 100-point to the winner qualifiers last Saturday and things get even hotter this weekend on the Derby trail!
It is Florida Derby Day, as well as Arkansas Derby Day, which means two more chances at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet’s Triple Crown Money-Back Prep promotion. On top of getting up to $10 back on your Win bet if your horse finishes 2nd or 3rd on the two big races this Saturday, we are also ponying up a 15% boost on your Florida Derby Win bet up to $20. Good stuff for one of the biggest races of the year in Hallandale Beach!
Florida Derby, Gulfstream Park Race 14
#10 Sovereignty is without question the deserving morning line favorite and the one to beat in this year’s Florida Derby (G1) after rolling by River Thames in his first try off a four-month layoff last out in the Fountain of Youth (G2). It is tough to knock the Godolphin homebred who has shown a strong late run throughout his career and has gotten better as the distances get longer. However, he will be a short price, so the fact trainer Bill Mott is 6 for 50 over the last 5 years with 3YOs making their second start off the layoff after a career best Beyer speed figure is a slight bit concerning. The 0 for 10-mark in graded stake routes has me looking elsewhere to take advantage of the Money Back Special.
#9 Tappan Street has only raced twice, but has done little wrong thus far. The $1M son of Into Mischief bested a field of 12 on debut going 7-panels and backed it up with a really good second to Burnham Square in the Holy Bull (G3). I am slightly concerned he will be caught wide much of the way, but he should be set for his best with this always being the goal for trainer Brad Cox. The aggressive Luis Saez has been aboard in both starts and gets the leg up again on Saturday.
Play: #9 Tappan Street
Arkansas Derby, Oaklawn Park Race 13
I do not often lean on short-priced horses in Derby preps and with Money-Back offers, but #9 Cornucopian appears to be more talented than his peers in this year’s Arkansas Derby (G1). The $1.1M Keeneland September 2023 purchase certainly faces a tall task winning at 1 1/8-miles against Grade 1 foes after just a six-furlong victory last month, but he might be special. Trainer Bob Baffert easily could have kept him in California and sent the more experienced Citizen Bull or Barnes to Oaklawn Park, but instead opts to send this Into Mischief colt back on a plane. The Kentucky Derby may be a big ask in his third career start debuting in late February, but he appears likely to get there after another wire-to-wire score in Arkansas.
Play: #9 Cornucopian
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Forgetting about the undercard action in Hallandale Beach and Hot Springs would be a big mistake. These cards are both loaded. Here is a horse at each track that I will be focusing my wagering on:
Appleton Stakes, Gulfstream Park, Race 13
Much like, Sovereignty in the Florida Derby, #9 Major Dude is the clear one to beat in the final turf stake on the card. The Spendthrift Farm runner is the class of the field, has 2 wins and 2 seconds in 5 starts over this course, and retains Irad Ortiz Jr. This will all be reflected on the tote board though and there is a chance he is going the wrong way after failing to finish the deal last out. I will try to beat him with #7 Seminole Chief. The Girvin colt has been a new horse since moving to the lawn earlier this year and showed the ability to relax when trainer Jack Sisterson took the blinkers off before his win over this course on March 1. He is sitting on his best. Hopefully that is good enough to best the dude.
Play: #7 Seminole Chief
American Pharoah Overnight, Oaklawn Park Race 11
There are three graded stakes races on the Arkansas Derby undercard, but I was more intrigued from a gambling perspective with this 8.5-furlong event for older runners. I respect the favorites #1 Bishops Bay, #3 Bendoog, and #7 Maycocks Bay, but they are far from unbeatable. Hopefully it is the day for #5 Full Screen. The Ontario-bred makes his second start of the form cycle after racing from off the pace against better in the Razorback (G3). He finished a well-beaten fourth, but was 68-1 and up against it on a day where speed was very good at Oaklawn Park. He will not be quite that price in this spot, but meets a softer group and should get a favorable mid-pack voyage under Ramon Vazquez.
Play: #5 Full Screen
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