As part of the biggest racing days of the year at Fair Grounds and Turfway Park, the two tracks are teaming up for a $1 All-Stakes Pick 5 wager. The 15% takeout bet known as the Bayou Bluegrass has a mandatory payout, gets started with the New Orleans Classic (G2), and concludes with the Louisiana Derby (G2).
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
Race 9, Fair Grounds, New Orleans Classic (G2)
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 9 Komorebino Omoide; 2 Hall of Fame
Backups: 7 Sierra Leone; 5 Touchuponastar
Forecast: The original field of ten is likely to lose at least a couple, but the 9-furlong affair for older handicap horses came up strong and marks the return of Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) winner #7 Sierra Leone. The late running son of Gun Runner has run the fastest races and is the obvious class of the field, but there are reasons to avoid pushing all-in on the chalk. Not only is this his first race since early November, but it is not as if he was a win machine as a 3YO. Plus, as always, he will have to work out a trip from off the pace. His best beats these and improvement as a 4YO should be expected, but there are some solid horses in here that hold a recency edge and should get the jump.
One of those is #9 Komorebino Omoide. The Japanese-bred son of California Chrome has won just once dating back to last June, but enters his third start of the form cycle in the best form of his career. Trainer Robertino Diodoro takes the blinkers off his trainee, which hopefully helps him relax just a touch more. He fought hard to the wire in the Mineshaft (G3) when running on the wrong part of a racetrack that favored the inside and appears poised for his best on Saturday.
#2 Hall of Fame is the one that beat Komorebino Omoide last out. He rode a good rail, but did have to overcome a speed favoring surface to get to the wire first. The $1.4M FTS August 2022 purchase has rattled off 3 in a row and draws the rail again with #1 Kinetic scratching in favor of the Essex (G3) in Arkansas. He is probably the likeliest to upset Sierra Leone, but the tote board will show that. #5 Touchuponastar ran huge in this race last year when finishing second to Red Route One. The Jeff Delhomme trainee is likely to benefit from a couple of potential speed types opting for different spots. He is a serious Louisiana-bred that is capable if he has things his way early on.
Race 11, Turfway Park, Bourbonette Oaks
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 11 White Rocks; 3 Admit
Backups: 7 As Catch Can; 12 Will Then
Forecast: Unfortunately, I am not overly creative in this 50-points to the winner on the Road to the Kentucky Oaks event.
#11 White Rocks has done almost nothing wrong through three starts for trainer Arnaud Delacour. She was off a bit slow and caught four-wide early in her debut going one-mile and still found a way to finish third beaten less than two lengths. Since then, she has been great out of the gate and dominant on the front end. Expect her to be tough to catch under regular rider Victor Carrasco. If she is to get caught, #3 Admit is the likeliest to do so. The Claiborne Farm homebred was beaten by White Rocks last out in the Cincinnati Trophy, but she put in a good late run to miss by just more than a length. She comes in to this spot off of a couple of strong local works for trainer Tom Drury Jr.
I will use the Jonathan Thomas duo as backups. #7 As Catch Can needs to prove she can handle this all-weather surface and the ship from California, but stretches out to her preferred trip after chasing an odds-on favorite to the wire in a turf sprint at Santa Anita last month. #12 Will Then will have to overcome the challenging outside draw, but brings a two-race win streak in with her from last fall.
Race 11, Fair Grounds, Fair Grounds Oaks (G2)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 3 Ahavah
Backups: 7 Good Cheer
Forecast: There is absolutely no question this year’s Fair Grounds Oaks goes through #7 Good Cheer. The Godolphin homebred comes into her second start as a 3YO a perfect 5 for 5 after besting 3 rivals in the Rachel Alexandra (G2) in mid-February. She has passed all of her tests with flying colors thus far, but this is her toughest one to date. My main concern is her lack of improvement since her first two runs at Churchill Downs last fall. She may not need to improve in this one to keep her undefeated record intact, but at some point, she will.
#3 Ahavah will have to be a serious racehorse to handle this challenge in just her second lifetime start, but she could be just that. The half-sister to Vahva did not break great from the rail in her debut, but from there was quite impressive. This barn would not send her to the wolves like this if they did not believe she had a legitimate shot at handling it. She should get the jump on Good Cheer. Hopefully she has the stamina to get to hold her off.
Race 12, Turfway Park. Jeff Ruby (G3)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 2 Charlie’s to Blame; 9 Poster; 10 Maximum Promise
Backups: 4 Final Gambit; 5 Flying Mohawk
Forecast: #9 Poster is the deserving 3-1-morning line favorite after his third-place run in the Sam F. Davis on February 8. The Munnings colt rattled off three victories as a 2YO, all at two-turns for trainer Eoin Harty and put in a better than looks effort at Tampa Bay in a race dominated by John Hancock and Owen Almighty on the front end. The talent is there, but he has yet to compete over this surface making him tough to push all-in on.
#2 Charlie’s to Blame is one of several in the 2025 Jeff Ruby with a chance to spring the upset. Much like Poster, he has yet to compete over an all-weather surface. The difference is he will be a big price. The Blame colt has been a better horse since stretching out to two-turns and draws favorably to the inside. #10 Maximum Promise also is capable of putting forth a career best third off the layoff for Kenny McPeek. He did not have things his way in the Battaglia Memorial and has shown the ability to finish with energy going a route of ground.
#4 Final Gambit is definitely still learning, but he can run. His gate issues are likely to leave him with a lot to do late, but he could be making the final move. #5 Flying Mohawk is a wild card shipping in for Whit Beckman. The Karakontie colt has rattled off two in a row against lesser on the turf. He is very likely to get overlooked on the tote board and in this sequence.
Race 12 , Fair Grounds, Louisiana Derby (G2)
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 10 Hypnus; 9 Instant Replay; 8 Furio
Backups: 7 Vassimo
Forecast: The biggest race of the afternoon drew a competitive field of 10 led by #1 John Hancock. The Brad Cox trainee got off to a late start to his career for a Derby horse, but has rattled off two victories in a row, including a wire-to-wire score in the Sam F. Davis. That effort certainly looks even better after runner-up Owen Almighty’s dominant win in the Tampa Bay Derby earlier this month. He draws favorably along the rail and gets Flavien Prat, but is going to have to earn it with several other speed types signed on.
#10 Hypnus is the horse I like most. The Into Mischief colt beat a field of well-meant maidens over the slop on Lecomte Day and then ran into ridiculous traffic when making a move in the Rebel (G2). He obviously has questions to answer still, so getting a fair price is imperative, but he has done nothing wrong thus far. #9 Instant Replay should also benefit from the likely race shape. The “other Brad Cox” showed a strong late run last time in his first start as a 3YO and appears to be ready for the class test. He ran by #8 Furio in the allowance event on February 17, but that was Furio’s first effort going a route of ground. He should move forward here for a barn that is 8 for 22 with a $2.63 ROI over the last ten days. #7 Vassimo gets blinkers after an odd run in the Risen Star (G2) as my top pick. I lean towards his late surge being more about those in front of him tiring, but improvement here is still well within the range of outcomes
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