The first of three big Road to the Kentucky Derby days in New Orleans comes this Saturday when Fair Grounds hosts a 12-race card headlined by the Lecomte (G3). The stakes-laden slate offers up a plethora of horizontal wagering opportunities, including an all-stakes late Pick 4 that is part of Xpressbet and 1/ST BET’s January Hit & Split promotion worth 2 Million 1/ST Rewards Points. For those new to things, remember to register on the promotional landing page and then connect on the late Pick 4 and split the rewards with only our customers.
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
Race 9: Silverbulletday
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 2 Golden Gamble; 4 Drexel Hill
Backups: 3 Simply Joking; 5 California Sunset; 7 She’s a Swede
Forecast: #3 Simply Joking is listed as the 3-1-morning line favorite in this Kentucky Oaks points race after besting a field of stakes foes going 6-furlongs on debut in the Letellier Memorial on December 21. She was much the best in that race and earned a big number on all metrics, but this is a much tougher spot. Her pedigree is relatively versatile and talent obvious, but she is a difficult favorite to trust despite the impressive effort to kick off her career for trainer Whit Beckman.
Beckman also sends out #4 Drexel Hill. The Bolt d’Oro filly had raced solely over the Woodbine all-weather to get her career started, but put forth a much better than looks effort in the Untapable where she finished fifth in her initial run over dirt. The Legion Racing runner was buried on the rail throughout and never got a shot to run until it was far too late. Beckman adds blinkers for the first time on a filly I am hopeful gets overlooked in the wagering.
#2 Golden Gamble is also on my main ticket. The Laoban filly beat a suspect group, but by a furlong in her maiden breaker at Churchill Downs in late November before running second in the aforementioned Untapable. She was no match Her Laugh that day, but was up against from the get-go with Her Laugh loose and lonely on the front end. I do not anticipate a fast first half mile in the Silverbulletday, but expect it to at least be honest. If so, Golden Gamble is the likeliest to get to the wire first under a ground saving mid-pack voyage under Brian Hernandez Jr.
#5 California Sunset was up against as well from a race shape perspective in the Untapable. She should improve here, but will likely once again have too much to do late. #7 She’s a Swede appears outclassed, but Luis Saez jumps aboard for the first time. She should be prominently placed at a big price after earning a win over this surface on December 29.
Race 10: Colonel E.R. Bradley
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 1 Northern Invader; 7 Gigante
Backups: None
Forecast: A full field is assembled for this year’s Colonel E.R. Bradley where I like #1 Northrern Invader most. The Cherie DeVaux trainee has been gelded since his third-place finish last summer in the Kelso (G3). He has burnt a lot of money along the way, but draws the inside, attracts Luis Saez, and gets some class relief from the two graded stakes runs to close his 4YO season. Hopefully Saez can will this guy to the wire at a square price.
If Northern Invader takes too much heat in the early stages, #7 Gigante should take advantage. The son of Not This Time has won 7 of 18 over his career, including 2 of 4 over this turf course. Leading rider Jose Ortiz was aboard his easy win in the Dilberto Memorial last month and returns to ride the $120k Keeneland September 2021 purchase.
Race 11: Louisiana (G3)
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 5 Skinner (pictured)
Backups: 8 Track Phantom; 1 Hit Show; 3 Pipeline
Forecast: 5-2-morning line favorite #1 Hit Show makes his first start of 2024 for trainer Brad Cox. The son of Candy Ride finished a non-threatening third to Rattle N Roll when we saw him compete last in the Clark (G2) last November, but meets a softer field for his 5YO debut. He should get a favorable ground saving trip under Florent Geroux, but the 1 1/16-miles is a bit sharp off the freshening making him tough to fully trust as the public choice.
I prefer #5 Skinner. The son of Curlin has always had ability and now moves into the Cherie DeVaux barn after a good-looking win in the Native Diver (G3) at Del Mar to close out his 4YO campaign. DeVaux sports incredibly strong numbers with runners making their first start under her care and this guy appears ready for a career best run in his first start over the Fair Grounds main track.
I am also still leaving the candle on for #8 Track Phantom. The Quality Road colt disappointed when put away easily by eventual winner Saudi Crown in the Tenacious, but moves outside and gets a noticeable rider change to Brian Hernandez Jr. I would not be surprised at all if the plan is to try to take this Steve Asmussen trainee off the pace. At his 8-1-morning line price I will include him as a backup along with Hit Show and #3 Pipeline, who will be a big price and on the lead under Luis Saez.
Race 12: Lecomte (G3)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 3 Admiral Dennis; 11 Disco Time
Backups: 7 Calling Card; 13 Built
Forecast: 20 points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby are on the line to the winner in this 1 1/16-mile test for 3YOs where the pace should be on. #1 Innovator, #2 Maximum Promise,
#4 Magnitude, #8 Tough Catch, #11 Disco Time, and #13 Built all have speed and could get aggressive rides from the starting gate. I am hopeful this sets things up for #3 Admiral Dennis.
The Constitution colt needs to prove himself at two-turns after stumbling badly at the start as the 4-5-favorite in last month’s Gun Runner. I wish he showed more fight after making a three-wide middle move, but I love the way he sealed the deal in his maiden breaker in Louisville two-back. Joel Rosario should be a good fit for this Brad Cox trainee.
His stablemate #11 Disco Time probably has more talent, but draws unfavorably and could get caught up in an early tussle. If he does not, he could prove tough to get by late. #7 Calling Card ran a big race to break his maiden by 17-lengths against NY-bred foes before being caught wide in his well-beaten third at Oaklawn Park against allowance foes. He needs to do better, but will be a big price and has the right running style if this falls apart late. #13 Built ran a huge race in the Gun Runner, but had everything his way on the front end. He might be better than these, but will have to earn it this time under jockey Jareth Loveberry.
Good luck in this very fun and challenging sequence!
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