Scott Shapiro: Fair Grounds LA Champions Pick 4 Hit & Split Analysis | Saturday, December 12, 2024

Saturday is Louisiana Champions Day at Fair Grounds Race Course. Seven stakes events are scheduled over the 10-race slate, including an all-stakes late Pick 4 sequence over the final four races. Xpressbet and 1/ST BET are adding to the excitement of the big day in New Orleans with a 2 million 1/ST Rewards Points Hit & Split promotion for those able to connect the dots. Just remember as always to register on the promotional landing page.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.


Race 7: Louisiana Champions Day Turf
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 5 Who Took the Money
Backups: 8 Brian’s Iron Mike

Forecast: The pace should certainly be honest at the very least in this 1 1/16-mile test over the lawn given the presence of #2 Mi Solution, #3 Behemah Star, #4 Calicoco, and #6 House Bourbon. This bodes well for #5 Who Took the Money. The Allied Racing Stable late runner ran out of room last year as the favorite in this race when finishing second to Behemah Star, but comes out of an open company allowance event where he was 29-1, but put in a solid late run to earn fourth. That was the only time the Street Boss gelding has finished worse than second over this course. He gets some class relief here and a race shape that should make his job easier.

I will also include #8 Brian’s Iron Mike. The son of Iron Fist has only competed over the lawn in 4 of his 28 lifetime starts, but has hit the board in 3 of those. He should get first run on the closers under veteran jockey Ben Curtis. At 10-1 he is far from impossible.


Race 8: Louisiana Champions Day Ladies Sprint
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 9 Six String
Backups: None

Forecast: There is little doubt the Ladies Sprint goes through 4-5-favorite #5 Free Like a Girl. The $5500 purchase has been quite the Louisiana-bred earning over $2M through 45 starts for trainer Chasey Pomier. Pomier has obviously done an amazing job with this mare who merits obvious major respect, but the cutback to a sprint makes swallowing a short price a lot tougher to deal with. I understand including her if you like prices in the other legs, but I am opting to go thin with just #9 Six String. The Star Guitar filly makes her second career start over this racetrack after being in tight on the backstretch in the Caldwell Memorial S. last out. She has won 6 of 10, has plenty of upside still, and moves to an outside draw, which should allow for a much cleaner voyage this time out. The Allen Landry trainee is 5-1 on the line, but hopefully will play even bigger in the horizontals.


Race 9: Louisiana Champions Day Ladies Turf
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 10 Boomin’ Belle; 11 Eye of the Pharoah
Backups: None

Forecast: Much like the male’s edition, there should be a contentious first-half mile in this year’s Ladies Turf where #10 Boomin’ Belle is listed as the 5-2-morning line choice in her third start off the claim for Mike Maker. Her previous two tries came against open company full field events in the Midwest, so she should benefit from moving into the state-bred ranks for the initial time. However, the question is whether she will get caught wide into the first turn or get caught up in a potential early tussle. Normally this might be enough to knock me off the chalk, but not in this case. Jockey Jareth Loveberry is one of the more underrated riders in the country, especially on turf and this filly appears to be set for her best third off the bench. Loveberry should be able to angle over and find a comfortable spot just off the early pacesetters. If so, this gal will be tough to deny.

Undefeated #11 Eye of the Pharoah also makes plenty of sense, but draws to the far outside in just the third start of her career. In her first local start for Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen, the Coteau Grove Farms homebred broke well and relaxed kindly early before spurting away late. She clearly is still learning out there and this is a significant step up, but is tough to leave off after the ability she has displayed through two races.



Race 10: Louisiana Champions Day Sprint
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 2 Geaux Sugar; 11 Jack Hammer
Backups: None

Forecast: #11 Jack Hammer headlines the field in the final stakes race of the afternoon. The son of Jimmy Creed has been on the sidelines since running off the screen on March 2 in the Edward J. Johnston Memorial. He has won 6 of 8 in his career and like his stablemate Who Took the Money, has clearly been prepared with the purpose of returning in this spot. The concern is that he did not exactly run well in his first start off the layoff last season when he finished eighth in a field of nine at odds of 5-2. That said, anything close to his beats these. I will use him along with #2 Geaux Sugar. The 4YO gelding comes off a big upset win last out in the Andrew Ney Memorial and has hit the board in all four starts since being claimed by trainer Keith Bourgeois. If he breaks on top again, perhaps he can make it two in a row under Mitchell Murrill.

Good luck!

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