The Kentucky Derby and the 2024 Churchill Downs Spring meeting have come and gone. It is Closing Weekend and that means Stephen Foster Day in Louisville.
The strong 12-race card that includes an all-stakes Derby City 6 with a carryover of over $300k assuming no one scoops it on Friday gets started at 12:45 eastern. Regardless of carryover amount, Sunday’s Pick 6 will be a mandatory payout but first things first. Here are my thoughts on Saturday’ sequence:
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
Race 7: Wise Dan (G2)
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 3 Chasing the Crown; 2 Ottoman Fleet
Backups: 5 Win for the Money
Forecast: The sequence kicks off with this 8.5-furlong affair over the lawn where the top two finishers from the Arlington (G3) earlier this month are the deserving top two choices on oddsmaker Mike Battaglia’s morning line. #2 Ottoman Fleet bested #3 Chasing the Crown that day but got a more favorable trip than his rival when likely pacesetter Emmanuel missed the break. This led to a slower first half-mile than I expect to see in the Wise Dan, which should benefit Chasing the Crown who makes his third start off the layoff and has posted career best efforts in each of his first two starts of 2024. I prefer him given his likely off odds.
#5 Win for the Money had things his way off the layoff last out in the Mr. Steele S. at Gulfstream Park but he ran well nonetheless. The Mark Casse trainee gets a class test here but could get another favorable voyage in his first local try.
Race 8: Fleur de Lis (G2)
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 4 Scylla (pictured above)
Backups: 3 Taxed; 2 Shotgun Hottie
Forecast: Plain and simple, I have been wrong about #4 Scylla after what I thought was an underwhelming start to her 4YO campaign. Since then, she dominated an allowance event on the Oaks Day undercard before cruising to victory in the Shawnee (G3) on June 1st. The lack of legitimate early zip in this 1 1/8-mile event over the main track should allow Javier Castellano to once again stalk just off the early pace of #6 Xigera. Scylla should have no problem handling the added ground en route to her third consecutive win.
#3 Taxed got a good setup but took advantage in her return to Louisville last month in a third-level allowance at one-turn. She is capable of a move forward here but not sure that will be
good enough to beat the favorite. #2 Shotgun Hottie beat a modest group last out in the Allaire Dupont Distaff S. She posted a big number last out but she has failed to hit the board in three straight graded stakes events.
Race 9: American Derby S.
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 1 Green Light
Backups: 7 First World War
Forecast: There is a serious lack of early speed signed on in this year’s American Derby. This bodes well for #1 Green Light who takes on winners for the first time for trainer Rodolphe Brisset. The Hard Spun colt was beaten out of the gate in his initial effort going two turns on the grass at Keeneland in April but ran a solid second before cruising to an easy victory at odds-on last out. Jose Ortiz should be able to cruise to the early lead from his inside draw and have enough left late to hold off those from off the pace.
#7 First World War ships back to Kentucky after a nose victory in the Penn Mile (G3). He has been several lengths off the pace in his last couple of starts but has the tactical speed to stay close to Green Light and take advantage if my top choice gets leg weary in the lane.
Race 10: Kelly’s Landing S.
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 6 Closethegame Sugar; 8 Bango
Backups: 5 Hoist the Gold; 1 Anarchist; 3 Ryvit
Forecast: #6 Closethegame Sugar worked out a good trip off the lively early pace of odds-on favorite Skelly last out in the Aristides and sprung the 18-1 upset under Irad Ortiz Jr. The son of Girvn has tactical speed, so I am not concerned with the fact the pace in the Kelly’s Landing is likely to be significantly slower. Expect Ortiz to sit just off the early pacesetters from his outside draw and prove this Girvin gelding has truly found a home on the dirt. #8 Bango has lost three straight dating back to last October in his attempt to be the all-time winningest horse in Churchill history but he is capable of bouncing back here second off the layoff. He should get a favorable forward voyage under regular rider Tyler Gaffalione.
#5 Hoist the Gold ships back to Louisville after a third-place effort in the Met Mile (G1) at Saratoga. Trainer Dallas Stewart has won just 2 of 40 over the last 60 days but this one has the back class and tactical speed to work out a favorable voyage under Luis Saez. #1 Anarchist has not raced since his victory last summer in the Pat O’Brien (G2) but he is capable of stealing this thing if he breaks well and is ready to fire his best off the break. #3 Ryvit moves back to the dirt after a seventh-place finish in a turf sprint earlier this month. He will be a big price that has some early zip.
Race 11: Stephen Foster (G1)
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 9 Skippylongstocking; 2 First Mission
Backups: None
Forecast: I wish I was more creative in this year’s Foster but at least on the Win end this looks like a two-horse race between #2 First Mission and #9 Skippylongstocking. First Mission has been really good since laying an egg in the Pegasus World Cup Invitational (G1). The Street Sense colt cruised home to victory off the break in the Essex (G3) and then ran down long shot T O Saint Denis in the Alysheba (G2). He should make the lead under Florent Geroux and be a challenge to get by in the lane. That said, I do prefer Skippylongstocking since he has proven he can take his game on the road over and over again and is likely to offer significantly more value. His win the Oaklawn (G2) looks even better now with runner-up Highland Falls coming back to win the Blame (G3) earlier on this meet. He should have every chance when they turn for home with Jose Ortiz back aboard.
Race 12: Tepin S.
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 1 Simply in Front; 8 Pipsy
Backups: 4 Voodoo Magic; 5 Poolside With Slim; 3 Kathynmarissa
Forecast: The card concludes with this $250,000 non-graded stake for 3YO fillies conducted over the Churchill sod where I like #1 Simply in Front best. The Summer Front filly was beaten out of the gate two-back in the Appalachian (G2) in her first start off the bench but got into the race much earlier in her first-level allowance victory over this course on June 6th. She should work out a favorable trip under Luis Saez. 8 Pipsy is probably the most talented filly in this race but I am not sure if she can overcome another awful start like she had last out in her Stateside debut. That said, she is 3 for 4 and should be rolling late.
#4 Voodoo Magic enters the Cherie DeVaux barn for her second Stateside start. She has a lot to prove but DeVaux thrives with runners making their first start in her barn. She should be a big price. #5 Poolside with Slim should make the lead under Tyler Gaffalione. I am concerned she will be pressured throughout but if that is not the case, she is capable of taking this group gate-to-wire. #3 Kathynmarissa moves up in class after a win in her first start over the Churchill Downs turf. The fact she ran well over this course and she retrains the services of Irad Ortiz Jr are both positives.
Good luck on Foster Day!
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