The fall meet in Louisville continues on Saturday where Churchill Downs has a fun 11-race card that includes a pair of stakes races and a number of attractive horizontal opportunities. Here are a few horses I will be building my day around.
Race 5:
The first grass race of the afternoon is a MSW event for 2YOs traveling one-mile where I like #7 Plensa. Trainer Rusty Arnold has been red-hot. The veteran conditioner has clicked with 5 of his last 17 and sends out this son of Caravaggio for his second lifetime try. He got a patient ride in his debut, but finished well for a barn that does not win with first-time starters all that frequently. In fact, Arnold is just 1 for 17 over the last five years with juveniles making their first start in a two-turn turf race. Despite the lack of recent success, this colt took live support in a full field at Keeneland and ran very well to earn second. He meets a softer group and potentially could be a bit more forward with the racing experience under his belt and Florent Geroux back aboard. Hopefully, we get the morning line price.
Play: #7 Plensa (4-1 ML)
Race 7:
These second-level allowance events in Kentucky are some of my favorite races to handicap. In this case, we get 3YOs with some upside still like #1 Parchment Party and #5 Kinetic, as well as some hard knocking veterans like #2 Game Warden and #9 Creative Minister. They all merit respect, but I like #10 Mackman most. The Union Rags colt makes his third start since entering the Matt Shirer barn in the summer. Two-back over this surface, Mackman was wide much of the way and fought hard to the wire before getting nailed by last-to-first winner, Hurry Hurry. He backed that effort up with a career best performance in his second-place run at Keeneland on October 12. Hopefully, Christian Torres can avoid a wide trip throughout. If so, I like his chances to earn his first victory in the Commonwealth.
Play: #10 Mackman (5-1 ML)
Race 9:
The pace should be honest in this 7-furlong affair over the main track with #9 World Record the likeliest to make the lead. The Gun Runner colt is fast and brings a strong resume in that includes a 6-1/2 length romp in the Amsterdam (G2) in July. That said, he has had things his way in his best efforts and may take heat from a couple of rivals from his inside. I am hopeful that sets things up for 2023 Kentucky Derby alum, #2 Rocket Can. The Into Mischief colt comes in off a pair of runner-up efforts in New York. Last out, the Frank Fletcher Racing colt was caught wide throughout and still managed to finish second to wire-to-wire winner, Phileas Fog. The 4YO colt picks up Tyler Gaffalione and has run well in his two non-Derby starts over this racetrack. He looks like formidable on the cutback to 7-panels.
Play: #2 Rocket Can (9-2 ML)
Good luck in Louisville on Saturday!
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