It is Closing Weekend at Churchill Downs, which means mandatory payouts on Sunday and some graded stakes action on Saturday, including a spot in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile being on the line in the Ack Ack (G3). Here are a few horses I will be building my wagers around in Louisville on Saturday night.
Race 4:
This looks like a wide-open MSW event for 2YOs at six-furlongs, so I will take a swing with #5 Crisis Manager. The Maryland-bred son of Liam’s Map commanded $190k at the Keeneland September 2023 sale and has worked steadily over the Churchill Downs main track dating back to the beginning of August.
Crisis Manager’s trainer Tom Amoss has been chilly on the win end with 2YO debut runners of late, but I am not overly concerned since he has proven more than capable over a much larger sample size. The fact his trainee is out of a Wilburn mare that won her first start by two lengths leads reason to believe this one could be ready to fire a big shot at first asking. At his morning line price, Crisis Manager is worth a gamble against this group.
Play: #5 Crisis Manager (10-1 ML)
Race 7:
On paper, the first-time starters in the second 2YO event at three-quarters of a mile are more imposing, including my top choice #9 Tswalu. There is not a ton of pedigree to point to this one being precocious, but he commanded $210k at the Keeneland September sale a year ago and has trained incredibly well in preparation for his debut. Not only did he fire a bullet 4-furlong drill from the gate on September 7 that went in 47.1, but his trainer has been on fire for an extended period of time. Phil Bauer is 60 for 253 overall with a $2.40 ROI over the last two years and 5 for 13 with a $4.55 ROI with 2YO first-time starters. I see little reason to not expect a big effort from this Rigney Racing runner.
Play: #9 Tswalu (7-2 ML)
Race 8: Ack Ack (G3)
There is little doubt that 4-5-morning line favorite #7 Saudi Crown is the one to beat with a spot in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile on the line, but I do not fully trust him in. The Always Dreaming colt was managed like one of the world’s best towards the tail end of last year and beginning of 2024, but trainer Brad Cox has not been quite as ambitious since last year’s Pennsylvania Derby winner returned from overseas. Sure, he got the job done easily in the Cowboy Jones at Ellis Park, and maybe he is a miler in the end, but this plan since the trip to Dubai is a bit underwhelming. I have been wrong plenty trying to beat favorites from this barn before, but I will take a shot again here with one of my favorite horses in training.
#1 Tumbarumba has lost close finishes in his last three starts, but it certainly is not for a lack of trying. This son of Oscar Performance simply tries as hard as he can every single time. The rail draw in the Ack Ack is less than ideal, but with Luis Saez aboard, I expect the Louisiana-bred to grind away at Saudi Crown and come away victorious at a much-bigger price.
Play: #1 Tumbarumba (6-1 ML)
Good luck at the last Downs After Dark card of 2024!
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