They are back at it in Louisville for the start of a new racing week at Churchill Downs. Saturday’s stakes-laden card headlines the late May action, but as always, the Twilight Thursday slate offers horseplayers several quality wagering opportunities. Here are a few horses I like on the card that kicks off at 5PM eastern.
Race 3:
This MSW event for 2YO fillies is led by a pair of debut runners from both the Mark Casse and Steve Asmussen barns. Casse has the two ML favorites with #2 Exile and #4 Ez Miss Sassy, but I like #5 Lead by Example most. The daughter of Jackie’s Warrior is out of a Malibu Moon mare that won her first three starts over the all-weather in Southern California and has been productive as a broodmare as well. Winding Way not only produced underachieving Skinner, but Essential Coffee as well. That dominant first out winner for these same human connections won by over 8 lengths almost a year to the day (May 30, 2025). His younger sister comes in off a steady series of drills for Asmussen, who calls on Jose Ortiz. Hopefully, the daughter of one Asmussen’s best sprinters is ready to fire at first asking.
Play: #5 Lead by Example (5-1 ML)
Race 4:
This maiden claimer at two-turns over the grass is a challenging one, but has appeal since I am against 5-2-ML favorite #7 Prince of Light. The Dixiana Farms homebred has had 9 chances already, including back-to-back starts in New Orleans where he was set off at even money or less. He is a colt that is likely to be good enough to earn yet another minor share, but is impossible to trust on top. I will take a swing against him with #1 Captain Mercury. The son of Tapiture debuted earlier this month in a 6-furlong race over the dirt where he was beaten out of the gate and chased while wide before finishing an underwhelming sixth. Trainer Rohan Crichton turns to Luis Saez, moves this gelding to the grass, and stretches him out to a route of ground three weeks later. I expect Saez to get him out of the gate and into the race right away instead of being caught in chase mode immediately. The price should be right to gamble on the $30k October ’24 purchase.
Play: #1 Captain Mercury (8-1 ML)
Race 5:
My final play on the final Thursday of May comes in this starter allowance at 1 1/8-miles where there is likely to be a contentious early pace. With a number of runners likely to flash some sort of early speed, this race should set up for a runner from off the pace. #9 Carolo Rapido is the one I like most. The son of Curlin was claimed for $62,500 two weeks ago by Norm Casse and Aj Suited Racing Stable. Casse opts to wheel him back quickly and stretch him back out to a distance he has won 2 of 9 at during his career. The affinity for the surface only strengthens the case for this 5YO gelding.
Play: #9 Carolo Rapido (9-2 ML)
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