Much of the country’s eyes will be focused on the big day of racing in Pennsylvania, but don’t snooze on this Churchill Downs card on Saturday afternoon. Four stakes races and some solid undercard maiden and allowance events make it worth a peek at the very least. Here are a few horses I will be leaning on Saturday in Louisville:
Race 5:
#1 Rothko headlines this full field MSW event for 2YOs at the tricky one-turn mile distance. The LNJ Foxwoods homebred is out of champion mare, Covfefe, but his debut went nothing like his mother’s. The Brad Cox trainee broke slow back in July at Ellis Park and did very little running chasing wire-to-wire winner Magnitude from start-to-finish. The Tapit colt has been on the sidelines since, but returns Saturday where he drew the rail. Given the poor break on debut, the time off since, and the less-than-ideal post position, he is definitely worth a shot against.
I will roll with #9 Speechless. The Street Sense colt broke outward from his far outside draw on debut, something that we see often, especially from inexperienced horses. He failed to hit the board after the poor start, but I thought he ran pretty well despite being defeated by ten lengths. He was caught four-wide throughout over a racetrack that favored inside runners and the race was dominated by those prominently placed. Speechless now gets more ground, moves inside a touch, and attracts Luis Saez. I expect a move or two forward at a playable price.
Play: #9 Speechless (5-1 ML)
Race 8: Dogwood (G3)
There is not much speed in this year’s Dogwood, which very well could compromise the chances of the two most accomplished fillies in this field. #5 My Mane Squeeze gets some class relief for Mike Maker after a pair of underneath finishes against graded stakes foes this summer. She is 5 for 11, but I am not sure she has matured all that much late into her 3YO campaign. The lack of pace makes her vulnerable. The same could be said for #2 Fibber who comes in off consecutive victories since being claimed for a cool $100k by trainer Chris Hartman. If the pace is honest, she is the likeliest winner, but that is a big “if.”
I will try to steal it with #3 Reagan’s Flame who does not necessarily need the lead, but in this case going to the front gives her the best chance of springing the upset. The Flameaway filly has moved forward since new trainer Lindsay Schultz moved her to the main track in late May. Since then, she has rattled off 3 of 4, including a pair of dominant wins this summer at Ellis Park. Reagan’s Flame has hit the board in both starts over the Churchill Downs main track and should be poised to run a big race at a very juicy price. Hopefully, Francisco Arrieta can ration out her speed and leave her with enough left late to get the final furlong. The price should be right to find out.
Play: #3 Reagan’s Flame (15-1 ML)
Race 10: Seneca Overnight
The pace should be plenty honest in this 8.5-furlong affair for 3YO fillies, which bodes well for the chances of #2 Everland. The Arrogate filly has only raced over dirt twice, but performed well in both instances. The first of those efforts was a solid fifth to Thorpedo Anna in the Kentucky Oaks (G1) with her last start at Ellis where she missed by a neck over the unique Ellis Park one-mile configuration being the second. Now, the Eric Foster trainee gets back to a true two-turn race and draws favorably to the inside. Expect jockey Luan Machado to save ground early and hopefully come with a big run late in her second start over the Churchill Downs main track.
Play: #2 Everland (8-1 ML)
Good luck on Saturday!
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