The card at Churchill Downs on Saturday is a bit different than the 14-race slate last week, but as often is the case, the racing on the weekend in Louisville offers plenty of solid opportunities for horseplayers. The lone stakes race is the William Walker for 3YOs sprinting over the grass, which I will discuss on the 1/ST Call Podcast with Jeremy Plonk, but here are the plays I will build my day around to start what should be a fun weekend of action prior to focusing on Maryland and the second leg of the Triple Crown.
Race 5:
My first play of the day comes in this MSW over the grass at 9-furlongs where I expect #3 Royal Causeway to put in a career best performance. The son of Not This Time makes his first start since the winter at Fair Grounds when he put in a better than looks fourth-place finish to close the stand in the Louisiana Derby (G3) Day opener. The Gervais Racing ridgling not only raced against the flow losing to a long shot gate-to-wire winner, but also was caught wide on a turf course that very much favored the inside. The Dallas Stewart trainee moves inside, retains Tyler Gaffalione and should offer better value than he did in New Orleans. Hopefully, it is good enough to earn his first lifetime win.
Play: #3 Royal Causeway (8-1 ML)
Race 8:
#3 Love’m Or Liam is the runner I like most in this first-level allowance event at one-mile over the grass after missing by a neck at Keeneland versus similar last month. The Cheyenne Stables colt has only competed in two-turn turf races twice and both saw him finish with good energy late despite earning third in both cases. I expect that to change in this spot where jockey Jaime Torres should get an honest tempo to run at in his first try aboard the son of Liam’s Map. He is unlikely to offer a big price, but I like his chances to get to the winner’s circle in his first start in Louisville for Hall of Famer Bill Mott.
Play: #3 Love’m or Liam (4-1 ML)
Race 9:
This third-level allowance at 1 1/8-miles over the main track kicks off the late Pick 3 and is headlined by the return of #1 Admiral Dennis (pictured). The $425k son of Constitution was made the 7-5-ML favorite in his first start since a third-place finish in last year’s Ellis Park Derby. The Brad Cox trainee was more of a second-tier colt for the barn, but definitely should be fast enough to be there at the wire if ready to fire fresh. The question is will 9 furlongs be too difficult a task off the layoff and will #2 Bernin Hot get the jump. I am banking on the latter. Bernin Hot makes his first start since the Gulfstream Park Mile (G3) in late February. He gets class relief and as importantly finds a field where his early speed should be a major weapon. Trainer Rohan Crichton legs up Ben Curtis. Curtis won four on the Twilight Thursday card and has been onboard in 2 of this gelding’s 7 career wins. He should be able to make the lead with little issue. Hopefully, he has enough energy late to get the final furlong.
Play: #2 Bernin Hot (6-1 ML)
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