The penultimate week of racing at the spring meeting at Churchill Downs concludes this afternoon with a 9-race card that gets rolling at 12:45PM eastern. The Derby 6 pool continues to grow as we head closer to a potential huge mandatory pool next weekend, so we will keep an eye on that. However, for now I will choose to focus my Sunday Funday attention on the more player friendly late Pick 5.
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
Race 5:
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 1 Shake and Rattle; 4 Spun Legacy; 3 Bobrovsky; 7 Quarry; 8 Trevally
Backups: None
Forecast: I lack a strong opinion in this restricted MSW event for 2YOs that sold or RNA’d for $65k or less in their most recent auction. #1 Shake and Rattle holds the experience edge over his lightly-raced opposition. Trainer Keith Desormeaux is certainly not known for having his stock fully cranked at first asking. So, while this colt had good trips and failed to take advantage thus far, the two runs in the afternoon should give him an edge. If he fails to get the job done for the third consecutive start, first-time starters #3 Bobrovsky, #4 Spun Legacy, and #7 Quarry appear the likeliest to thrive first out of the box while, longshot #8 Trevally appears capable of a move forward for Mark Casse after breaking slow and being outrun in his early May debut.
Race 6:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 6 Amarth; 1 Impel
Backups: 2 Foreseen
Forecast: A second-level allowance for fillies and mares at one mile is up next where 4 of the 6 runners entered are likely to take most of the public support. #1 Impel and #3 Sudden Switch were made the first and second choices by oddsmaker Mike Battaglia. The two 4YO fillies squared off last time going 9-furlongs and battled early before giving way late. They cutback to one-turn and are likely to have to deal with longshot #5 Secret Statement as well in the early stages.
Theoretically, this should set things up for the 3YO taking on older for the first time, #6 Amarth. The Eddie Kenneally trainee was caught wide throughout over the off going in the Black-Eyed Susan last month in Maryland. The cutback and race shape should benefit her as regular rider Luis Saez stays aboard. If Amarth fails to fire or the race plays out a bit differently than it appears on paper, Impel is the one I prefer of the two favorites. Two-back she was down on the inside throughout in her return race at Keeneland and last out she battled in the early stages before tiring late. The one-turn mile could hit her right between the eyes. #2 Foreseen could get a bit overlooked in the wagering. She will need to show a different running style than her last two if she wants to be successful in this spot, but Brian Hernandez Jr. has been riding well. He is more than capable of finding a comfortable spot early along the inside and hoping the top couple come back to him late.
Race 7:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 5 Dozen Diamonds
Backups: 6 Cha Cha Chukka; 2 Steampunk
Forecast: I like class dropper #5 Dozen Diamonds most in this conditional $50k claimer going 1 1/16-miles over the Churchill Downs sod. The Mendelssohn filly has taken on much better in her first three starts as a 4YO for trainer Vicki Oliver. She was outrun at odds of 52-1 last out in a second-level allowance at Keeneland over the yielding going, but the top several in that spot would be prohibitive favorites today. Jockey Luan Machado should be able to find a favorable forward position early and have enough left late to seal the deal.
If Dozen Diamonds falls flat on the drop, I will use two gals as backups. #2 Steampunk may be a bit of a reach but she moves back to the grass, attracts Luis Saez, and also faces a decrease in competition. I will include despite her lack of turf form. Mike Maker trainee #6 Cha Cha Chukka has had plenty of chances with just one lifetime win, but fits well her after a runner-up effort over the slop on June 13. Hopefully it is Dozen Diamonds getting to the wire first, but a little insurance feels like the right move.
Race 8:
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 10 Unwavering Trust
Backups: None
Forecast: I am going to take a stand in a competitive first-level allowance for fillies and mares at 6-furlongs with 4-1-second choice #10 Unwavering Trust. The $750k daughter of Nyquist has done little wrong thus far through three starts for trainer Brad Cox. She was beaten by a serious filly in Ahavah on debut in New Orleans before following that up with a dominant maiden score at Keeneland in April. Last out in her first start against winners, she failed to hit the wire first, but ran a big second from a less-than-ideal position in the early stages. The outside draw should allow jockey Florent Geroux to settle just off the pace in the clear. Hopefully, she has enough left late to close things out and her second lifetime victory.
Race 9:
Grade: C
Main Ticket: 3 Tango Mike Mike, 4 Sweet Fantasy; 8 Greatdayforhockey
Backups: None
Forecast: The week of racing concludes with a challenging low-level claimer at two-turns. It is tough to have a ton of confidence in any of these one-win animals, so I will use a few in hopes of closing things out.
Arkansas-bred #4 Sweet Fantasy has to prove he can get the distance, but should have no problem making an easy lead on the stretch out with Luis Saez aboard. He is a must use as is class dropper #3 Tango Mike Mike. The Enticed colt has not done much running in his two starts in Louisville this meet, but takes a massive drop in class and attracts Brian Hernandez for the first time. #8 Greatdayforhockey will be my other horse. The Dale Romans trainee takes on older runners for the first time after a fourth-place finish in a claimer just for 3YOs last month. Romans has been heating up over the last several days and this Twirling Candy colt will not have to be much in his second start off the bench to be competitive with these.
Best of luck!
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