After a stop in New Orleans last fall at the Fair Grounds, the Claiming Crown is back in Louisville at Churchill Downs. 11 races with full fields throughout make for potential massive payouts in horizontal wagers, including the late Pick 4. To make things that much more appealing, Xpressbet and 1/ST BET have offered up a $2M rewards points in a Late Pick 4 Hit & Split, which covers the final four races on the day. Just register for the promotion, connect on the sequence, and split the rewards points. That simple. Here are my thoughts:
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
Race 8: Canterbury Tom Metzen Memorial
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 5 Final Verdict
Backups: 7 Mid Day Image
Forecast: 2-1-morning line favorite #5 Final Verdict looks like the clear horse to beat in this 5.5-furlong dash over the lawn. The Florida-bred has been freshened up off a career best effort against first-level allowance foes at Aqueduct back in late September. In that run, the son of Finale was able to stalk in the clear throughout and take control at the top of the lane. Nothing leads me to believe this Ed Barker trainee will regress in this spot, where he should get a similar voyage off what looks like a moderate early pace. A potential single to kick things off.
For those looking to beat the favorite, #7 Mid Day Image appears the likeliest. The 8YO has not won since June, but has kept better company for the most part than he meets here. When we saw him last, he was caught wide much of the way at 23-1 on a day at Keeneland where the rail on the lawn was the place to be. He should move forward here for trainer David Jacobson.
Race 9: Rapid Transit
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 7 Like a Saltshaker; 11 Gunner Bay
Backups: 8 Global Sensation
Forecast: The pace should be honest in this 7-furlong dash over the main track with #2 No Easy Days and #6 Born Flawless entered. The question is will 2-1-morning line favorite #8 Global Sensation be able to relax off the pace or will he get caught up in the early tussle. Last time out, the son of Into Mischief battled early while wide at Keeneland, put away the other speeds, but could not hold off the eventual winner from off the pace. He now stretches back out to 7-panels, a distance he is 3 for 3 over, and is the one to beat, but I can see a similar collapse happening making him somewhat vulnerable at his likely short price.
I prefer #7 Like a Saltshaker. The 6YO gelding has a nose for the finish line evidenced by his 16 for 37 career record, with a 3 for 7-mark under the twin spires. The Brittany Vanden Berg trainee got off to a poor start and failed to hit the board two-back over the off track here in Louisville, but otherwise enters the Claiming Crown Tiara in tremendous form. He should get a great trip just off the pace. I also like #11 Gunner Bay. This 4Y0 gelding makes his third start of the form cycle after a third-place effort in the same race Global Sensation exits at Keeneland. If they go at it early, he could be the one making the last move.
Race 10: Jewel
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 9 Laughing Boy; 8 Bourbon Day
Backups: 11 Surface to Air; 11 Welaka
Forecast: The featured $200k event at 9-furlongs over the main track is led by last year’s Claiming Crown Jewel winner, #3 Money Supply. The son of Practical Joke stormed home over the sloppy going in New Orleans a year ago, but has been competing on the turf over his last three starts after a disappointing sixth-place effort in the Alysheba (G2). He clearly brings the strongest resume into this one, but I have concerns he is not the same horse he was last year.
I prefer second choice #8 Bourbon Day. The 5YO gelding was claimed by Brad Cox for $30K at Fair Grounds last winter and has been primarily a turf horse, but has also shown ability over the main track, including last time out when he romped home over the slop at Aqueduct to win a first-level allowance event. He should get good forward position under Florent Geroux in a race that lacks early zip. #9 Laughing Boy is the one who benefits most from the likely race shape. The son of Distorted Humor is has won just 2 of 17 dating back to the start of 2023, but could find himself loose on an uncontested lead. He is a must use at his 12-1-morning line offering.
Since I am playing against the chalk, I will include a couple more in hopes of gaining some separation from the public. #11 Surface to Air needs to prove he can avoid regression off of a big win at Keeneland last out. If he can, he has a significant shot from mid-pack to run this group down. #10 Welaka is a reach, but is 30-1 and has some early zip. Adam Beschizza should have him in a good position early on.
Race 11: Emerald
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 8 Sugoi
Backups: None
Forecast: The sequence concludes with this 8.5-furlong event over the lawn where I have little interest in trying to beat 2-1-morning line favorite #8 Sugoi. The 7YO gelding gets some class relief after competing in a pair of graded stakes races going further, including last out when he did not embarrass himself with his fifth-place finish in the Sycamore (G3). Jockey Jose Ortiz should be able to find a perfect pressing position off the pace of Oregon-bred #2 Devil’s Harvest and have plenty of class and foundation to finish this field off late.
Good luck on Saturday with the Late Pick 4 Hit & Split!
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