The next time there will be live racing at Churchill Downs after today, it will be one week from the 151st running of the Kentucky Derby. However, a strong 12-race closing day card awaits that includes a $240,017 carryover in the Derby City 6 that must go.
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
Race 7:
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 6 Grand Job; 3 East Shore
Backups: None
Forecast: #6 Grand Job is likely to be a popular single to kick off the Pick 6 after winning by six lengths in her first start in the States on Halloween for Hall of Famer Bill Mott. The Justify filly will easily handle this first-level allowance field if she replicates her effort at Aqueduct off the 13-month layoff, but I am not willing to single her. She took advantage of a good rail in her wire-to-wire score in New York and this barn is 0 for their last 22 in Louisville. That said, she projects to potentially be loose on the lead as the fastest horse, so I will keep it thin adding just #3 East Shore. The Dale Romans trainee is one of just two runners in the field with multiple lifetime victories. If they go at it early, she is the one likeliest to run them down.
Race 8:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 4 Tickled Quist; 2 White Whale
Backups: 7 Burning Glory
Forecast: #7 Burning Glory and #2 White Whale are the morning line choices in this MSW event for 2YOs at one-mile over the main track. Burning Glory was caught wide throughout in his second career start, but still fought on to finish second that day. The track did favor off the pace types though and as already mentioned, this barn has been chilly of late in the Blue Grass. I will include as a backup. White Whale I like a bit more. The Calumet Farm homebred ran second to the good-looking Disco Time back on November 1. Disco Time came right back to win in an allowance event yesterday. White Whale was not exactly full of run late, but should move forward here against a bit softer bunch.
I like #4 Tickled Quist most. Brad Cox means business when he takes the blinkers off a 2YO for the initial time clicking at 28% over the last five years for an ROI of $2.15. Last out, this colt was part of a contentious early pace in a similar spot, but at two-turns. He has been given 2.5 months since the fifth-place effort and attracts Luis Saez. He appears ready to roll off the freshening.
Race 9:
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 5 Disco Ball
Backups: 7 Tejano Twist
Forecast: There is very little speed signed on in this $148k allowance event at six panels, which benefits #5 Disco Ball immensely. The son of Orb does have to prove himself over the Churchill main track, but comes in having won four consecutive at three different venues for trainer David Jacobson. Jacobson has won 3 of his last 10 and brings this gelding in off the break. He should have no issue making the lead under Samy Camacho Jr. Hopefully he handles the ship and the class hike.
#3 Angkor is a tough read as the 2-1-morning line choice. He projects to get a favorable voyage off the moderate early tempo. This could be the winning trip for a horse that obviously fits well, but he just is not a runner that has a will to win making him difficult to get excited about at 2-1. #7 Tejano Twist is unlikely to get the setup he needs to run this field down, but that was also the case when we saw him last in the Bet On Sunshine. He ran fourth in a race dominated by those on the front end. I will use him as a backup.
Race 10:
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 11 Piroli; 4 San Siro
Backups: None
Forecast: #11 Piroli was entered in Friday’s Clark (G2), but trainer Michael McCarthy opted to scratch the son of Battle of Midway for this second-level allowance event at 1 1/16-miles. The Don Alberto homebred should get a contentious pace to run at in his first start over this surface. Jockey Florent Geroux will have a bit of a difficult task early to avoid a wide voyage into the first turn from his outside draw, but if he can he should be able to handle this group.
If you are looking for a bigger price from off the pace perhaps #4 San Siro can make the last move. The Classic Empire gelding was caught wide in his first try at this level last out, but battled to the wire at 7-1 to finish fourth. The slight cutback and likely contentious first-half mile should benefit the Brendan Walsh trainee.
Race 11: Cherokee Mile
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 2 Three Technique (pictured); 5 Frosted Departure; 3 Injunction; 1 Brunacini; 9 Call Me Fast
Backups: None
Forecast: The closing day feature appears as wide-open as any race within the sequence. The morning line favorite #3 Injunction merits respect and has shown an affinity for this surface, but draws towards the inside, which could make things a bit tricky for jockey Edgar Morales. The second choice #1 Brunacini was really good when wide much of the way in his victory in the Perryville (G3), but now moves from the far outside to the rail in his first try over Churchill Downs’ one-turn mile configuration. The bottom line is this is a spread race for me where unfortunately I am not against the likely public choices, but give some price horse some shots as well. Hopefully we get lucky. I would handle it differently if it were not a six-figure carryover situation.
Race 12:
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 5 Eddie M; 6 Keen Cat; 12 Ram
Backups: None
Forecast: #3 Global Sensation returns quickly after a disappointing run in the Claiming Crown on November 16. Prior to his mid-pack finish, the 5YO gelding had been on quite a run finishing in the top two in six straight, including four wins but I am concerned he is a bit of a tired horse coming back on too short of rest. At his 3-1-morning line price, I am willing to let him beat me.
I prefer his stablemate #5 Eddie M who is protected in his first start off the claim for Juan Cano after a three-length win as the even-money choice on the Claiming Crown undercard. I like that his connections opt to protect him off the claim and his 4 for 5 record over this surface certainly do not hurt his chances. I will also include #6 Keen Cat and #12 Ram. If this falls apart late, these are the two I expect to take advantage.
Good luck!
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