It is Breeders’ Cup time and you know that not only means 14 championship races over a two-day period, but also another great promotion at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet. This time we are wheeling back our very popular Exacta-Thon and running it on both Friday and Saturday. Just register, hit exactas on six races on a given card ($2 minimum base wager), and split your share of $7500 per day. Oh, and don’t let me forget about the $2500 set aside each day for the horseplayer who connects on the most total exactas. $20,000 total up for grabs, so let’s get to it.
Here are three exacta plays I will be making as part of my Exacta-Thon plays on Friday afternoon:
Race 7: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1)
#10 Scottish Lassie is listed as the 5-2-morning line favorite off of her dominant 9-length romp in the Frizette (G1) last month at Aqueduct. The effort was visually impressive, but it came against a suspect group at one-turn. I have questions about this filly’s ability to move forward stretching out to two-turns.
I much prefer #3 Immersive. The Godolphin homebred ships west a perfect 3 for 3 after a pair of Grade 1 victories for trainer Brad Cox. You could argue that she has had great trips in both of her recent graded stake scores, but that was in large part due to her tactical speed. She is not a need the lead type, but has the ability to get into the race, which has proven to be a huge weapon. The Nyquist filly handled the stretch out to 1 1/16-miles in the Alcibiades (G1) at Keeneland last out and should get a favorable pocket trip under Manny Franco.
Immersive will not provide much value, so we need something to spice up this exacta play. #1 Vodka With a Twist would do just that. The Thousand Words filly comes into her first start at two-turns off a really strong run in the Del Mar Debutante (G1) in early September. She lost by a nose that day, but was caught four-wide much of the way on a day where the inside was the place to be. The Phil D’Amato trainee has to prove she can handle the added ground, but attracts Irad Ortiz Jr. and the price is right at 20-1.
Plays:
$5 Exacta Box 1+3
$10 Exacta 3-1
$2 Exacta Wheel 1+3 with 1+3+5+9
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Race 8: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1)
#1 Lake Victoria will be a popular single in the late horizontals and understandably so. The Frankel filly ships to the States a perfect 4 for 4 after capturing a pair of Grade 1 races in the month of September for trainer Aidan O’Brien. She stretches out to a mile for the initial time, but should have zero issue getting that extra furlong with one of the best to ever ride the turf aboard in Ryan Moore. Assuming Moore can avoid major traffic issues from the rail draw, they are likely running for second place.
Spreading too much in exactas when you like the chalk is not the right strategy, so I will simply play a cold exacta to the other O’Brien trainee, #8 Heavens Gate. The Irish-bred daughter of Churchill is not undefeated like her stablemate, but brings a solid resume to the States that includes a neck victory in the Weld Park (G3) at Curragh last out. Since I do not have the strongest opinion of the Stateside contenders, I will hope European invaders hit the wire 1-2.
Play:
$10 Exacta 1-8
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Race 9: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1)
The Road to the Kentucky Derby officially kicked off in September, but this is the real start and always one of the races I look forward to most on Breeders’ Cup weekend.
This year, I like the prospects of a pair of Kentucky-based horses led by #5 Jonathan’s Way. The Ohio-bred has been simply awesome through two starts starting with his 4 1/2-length maiden score at the Spa. Then, he did what quality young horses do. Backed up a fast effort with an even faster one in his first start against winners, beating a strong group in this year’s Iroquois (G3) in the process. Like many, the son of Vekoma needs to prove himself at a route of ground, but nothing I have seen thus far gives me cause for concern.
#1 East Avenue is the 5-2-morning line favorite. The Medaglia d’Oro colt has been equally as dominant as Jonathan’s Way through two career starts. He crushed a group at Ellis Park to kick off his career and also backed it up with an even faster effort in his second lifetime try. The fact he has proven himself at two-turns is an advantage, but he has yet to be tested at any point. If he breaks on top from his inside draw, it could be lights out, but if not, we do not know how he will handle adversity quite yet. That said, he looks like a million bucks on the racetrack in preparation and is going to take some beating.
I respect #10 Chancer McPatrick, who has come from well off the pace three straight times to get to the wire first for Chad Brown, but wonder if his late kick will be as potent stretching out to two-turns. As the second choice, I will pass. I am all in on Jonathan’s Way and East Avenue in this one.
Plays:
$30 Exacta 5-1
$20 Exacta 1-5
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