The national stakes action kicks off in New York on Saturday where Aqueduct has a big card that includes a pair of “Win and you’re in” Breeders’ Cup events, as well as the $400K Woodward (G2). Here are my thoughts on the stakes events, as well as a colt I like to kick off the day.
Race 1:
#4 Hands of Time makes his third career start for trainer Christophe Clement after two runs at Saratoga this summer. The son of Liam’s Map took significant support in both tries in upstate New York and ran well, especially when you consider he was not overly comfortable in either start. Joel Rosario did what he could after a slow break on debut, but he did his mount no favors in his second career start when he broke well, but strangled back Hands of Time causing him to fight his rider early on. Once he settled down, he showed some talent to finish third. This time around, I am hopeful Rosario will let him roll from the gate. If so, he should be tough to deny in his first start over the Aqueduct sod.
Pick: #4 Hands of Time
Race 4: Woodward (G2)
Unfortunately, value is nearly impossible to find in this year’s Woodward since not only is #1 Skippylongstocking the fastest, most-accomplished horse, but he also appears to have a pace advantage over his four rivals. The son of Exaggerator has failed when encountering the top tier of the handicap division, but when he has tackled those a cut below, he has been dominant. This is evidenced by his nearly $2.9M earned through 26 starts. The Saffie Joseph Jr. trainee finds another favorable spot here where I have no interest in trying to beat him.
Pick: #1 Skippylongstocking
Race 6: Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1)
#7 Far Bridge surprised everyone last month at Saratoga when he went to the lead in the Sword Dancer (G1) and held off the two favorites at 8-1 under Joel Rosario. With #1 Get Smokin and #3 Emmanuel in this spot, it is highly unlikely that the English Channel colt is on the front end again on Saturday, but that is not an issue. The Lsu Stables runner has been at his best coming from off the pace and hopefully gets a bit overlooked in the wagering since he had things so easy up top last month
Pick: #7 Far Bridge
Race 9: Vosburgh (G3)
A spot in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint is on the line in this $250k event at seven furlongs over the main track where I like #3 Baby Yoda. The 6YO gelding failed to hit the board in two starts this summer at Saratoga, but those came against tougher fields than he encounters in this year’s Vosburgh. The Bill Mott trainee should get a favorable pocket trip under Dylan Davis, which should allow the Florida-bred to get the best of this bunch in the lane.
Pick: #3 Baby Yoda
Race 11: Pilgrim (G2)
The second of the Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series races in New York on Saturday offers up a berth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. It should be no surprise that trainer Chad Brown has two of the logicals in this year’s Pilgrim, but it is trainer Todd Pletcher, not Brown who has dominated this race of late. Pletcher has won it the last three years and will try to do so once again with first-time turfer #1 Noble Confessor. I respect the Quality Road colt’s chances, as well as #4 Zulu Kingdom and #8 Early Adopter but, I prefer #5 Concord Green. The Stuart S Janney III homebred got out of the gates slow in his debut at Saratoga in mid-August, but showed a lot of professionalism throughout. This allowed jockey Dylan Davis to sit and wait until he found clear sailing. Once he did, the well-bred son of War Front did the rest getting up at odds of 13-1. I expect a move forward here in his first start versus winners.
Pick: #5 Concord Green
Good luck at the Big A on Saturday!
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