The New York Racing Association takes center stage on Saturday when a trio of Grade 2 events led by the $500k Cigar Mile headline a strong 10-race card that gets rolling at 11:40 AM eastern. The best news is the three-pack of Grade 2’s are all part of a late Pick 4 sequence where 1/ST BET and Xpressbet have a $2M 1/ST Rewards Points Hit & Split to celebrate the big day. Just as always remember to register on the promotional landing page.
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
Race 7: Remsen (G2)
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 4 Studlydoright
Backups: 5 Keewaydin
Forecast: This year’s Remsen is a bit of a puzzler with three of the seven 2YOs moving from turf-to-dirt and the two morning line favorites taking on winners and trying a route of ground for the initial time. The 9-furlong affair goes through 6-5-morning line favorite #5 Keewaydin who chased the top two around the racetrack on debut at the Spa before besting a field of five to break his maiden in mid-October. He has run the fastest races thus far, but is bred on both sides to sprint and had a favorable stalking voyage at 1-5 en route to that first lifetime win. He is tough for me to get overly excited about, especially at his price, but trusting anyone in this field is difficult.
#1 Tux kept coming and proved much the best on debut on November 9 going 6.5-furlongs, but now moves inside after a comfortable outside trip to kick off his career for Hall of Famer Bill Mott. Mott has been chilly of late, especially in graded stakes races where he is 2 for 28 over the last 90 days. I am willing to let this colt beat me. #4 Studlydoright is the one I like best. The Maryland-bred son of Nyquist has won 3 of 6 and put forth a career best Thorograph number last out with the addition of blinkers for the first time last month in the $150k Nashua. If he handles the 1 1/8-miles, he has a big shot at a likely playable price.
Race 8: Demoiselle (G2)
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 1 Muhimma
Backups: None
Forecast: Trainer Brad Cox has won a lot of big races over the last several years, but during his run he has never captured this 1 1/8-mile event for 2YO fillies. That is highly likely to change on Saturday when he sends out undefeated #1 Muhimma. The $700k Keeneland September 2023 purchase has won for absolute fun in her first two starts and projects to make the lead from her inside draw under jockey Florent Geroux. I have no desire trying to beat her despite the likely very short price.
Race 9: Cigar Mile (G2)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 7 Locked; 5 Mullikin; 11 Post Time; 9 Senor Buscador
Backups: None
Forecast: This year’s Cigar Mile came up competitive led by a pair of runners that come off underneath finishes in Breeders’ Cup races last month. Oddsmaker David Aragona made #5 Mullikin the 3-1-morning line favorite off of his third-place effort in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1). The Violence colt sat mid-pack and was no match for the top two who got the jump on him, but lost little in defeat. His win over this surface in the John A. Nerud (G2) this summer is a positive. His lack of experience going 8-furlongs is probably the lone concern. #11 Post Time ran well in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) finishing second to Full Serrano. He should appreciate the cutback to a one-turn configuration.
I wish I had major knocks on the top two, but that is not the case. They both have big shots, but I give a look to a pair of others as well. #7 Locked (pictured) had a perfect comeback race in mid-October for Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher. The favorite in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile had been on the sidelines since last November, but was dominant going 7-panels over this surface. Obviously, the competition gets much tougher, but this colt has plenty of class and appears poised for a career best performance in his second start off the extended break. #9 Senor Buscador may be going the wrong way after an incredible run in 2023 and into the beginning of 2024 for trainer Todd Fincher, but I am willing to give him one more chance on the cutback. He has been taking on better company and if they got at it early, he should be rolling late under Joel Rosario.
Race 10:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 6 Treaty Obligation; 2 Jackson Heights; 8 Quick to Accuse
Backups: None
Forecast: The pace should be contentious in this first-level allowance event to close the card with #1 Light the Way drawn on the inside and #10 Night Effect and #11 Iridescent drawn to the far outside. I am hoping #6 Treaty Obligation sits a perfect stalking trip off the likely fast first half mile. The Maclean’s Music gelding has won two in a row, including his first start off the claim for Linda Rice in late October. Flavien Prat’s presence only helps his chances. #2 Jackson Heights is not without a shot either. The New York-bred gelding has only hit the board in one of his last five, but could be making the last move under Eric Cancel. I will also include fellow New York-bred #8 Quick to Accuse off the freshening for Brad Cox and Rupp Racing.
Best of luck on a fun day at the Big A!
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