Travers Day is rapidly approaching, but there is still plenty of great action to be had this weekend where it is Alabama Day in upstate New York. The Grade 1 race for 3YO fillies is conducted at the classic mile and one-quarter distance and is part of the late Pick 4 sequence that kicks off with and concludes with a turf sprint. Hopefully, we can have a big weekend and pad our bankroll for the biggest day of the meet a week from Saturday.
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
Race 9: Skidmore
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 1 Schwarzenegger; 8 Spirit of New York; 7 Bobrovsky
Backups: 2 Sandal’s Song
Forecast: Things get rolling with this 5.5-furlong dash for 2YOs over the Saratoga grass where #2 Sandal’s Song is the deserving 2-1-ML favorite. The Mendelssohn colt overcame a slow start to win going away in the Royal Palm Juvenile in his first start before trying extremely hard to the wire in his third-place effort at Ascot in the Norfolk (G2). If he runs back to that performance overseas in June, this group is in trouble, but it has only been two months since the voyage. It is fair to question whether swallowing a short price is the best choice.
At the time of publication of this blog, #1 Schwarzenegger was entered for a maiden race on Thursday. If it does not go for whatever reason he will run in this spot. Do not overlook the $900k FTS August 2024 purchase just because he has not raced yet. He can run. If he runs Thursday afternoon, I will use two horses in hopes of beating Sandal’s Song. #8 Spirit of New York put forth a big middle move and finished well to win going away in his first start. He takes on much tougher, but draws to the outside again, which should give jockey Jose Ortiz options out of the gate. #7 Bobrovsky also intrigues. Dale Romans has had a great meet with limited starters and there is reason to believe this Daredevil colt will take to the surface switch based on his bottom side pedigree. At 6-1, he is definitely worth using on all tickets.
Race 10: Alabama (G1)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 2 Good Cheer
Backups: None
Forecast: The featured event only drew a field of six, but it is an intriguing race nonetheless in large part due to the presence of #4 Nitrogen. The D J Stable homebred has been awesome since returning to the races as a 3YO for trainer Mark Casse. The Medaglia d’Oro filly has done almost all of her work on the grass, but put on a clinic over the slop two-back in the Wonder Again (G3) leaving the thought that she could be very good on dirt as well. It gets a lot tougher today against this group and she may be an underlay, but her talent is undeniable.
At first, I thought this race would set up once again for the other Mark Casse filly #6 La Cara, but the more I dove in it seems unlikely she walks on the lead in this one. #1 Margie’s Intention may not be as fast early, but she can make her work with the advantage of the inside draw in an attempt to set things up for her stablemate #2 Good Cheer. The Godolphin homebred entered the Acorn (G1) a perfect 7 for 7, but failed to fire over the sloppy going that afternoon. It was not pretty, but was also forgivable given the conditions and the race shape. She has been training forwardly over the Saratoga main track and appears poised to bounce back in a big way on the stretch out in distance. If the pace is honest, she will be very tough to hold off late.
Race 11:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 5 Mo Go; 9 Sky Masterson
Backups: 1 Assertiveness
Forecast: I thought the morning line favorites were a bit vulnerable in this non-winners of two over the inner turf. #1 Assertiveness is tough to totally omit since he gets a favorable inside draw on the drop in for a tag for the first time, but he is going to take a lot of money. Therefore, it is worth noting that trainer Todd Pletcher is just 3 for 28 over the last 2 years with a $0.70 ROI when dropping turf horses in for a tag for the first time. This colt has been a major disappointment making him tough to fully trust on the clearance rack.
The Ortiz brothers have dominated the summer meet at Saratoga, so I will ride them here in hopes of taking down the two chalks. #5 Mo Go has only raced on the grass going long once and it was his lone victory. Trainer Linda Rice moves the colt back to the turf in his first start under her care and legs up Irad. Jose picks up the mount on #9 Sky Masterson, who is tougher to get excited about on form. That said, he drops in class and has hit the board in 6 of 14 over the lawn.
Race 12:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 1 Spoken Bluntly
Backups: 4 On the Ledge
Forecast: #1 Spoken Bluntly looks capable of winning right back on the move into the state-bred allowance ranks after a win in his first start under the care of veteran conditioner Bruce Levine in June. The son of Frank Conversation draws the inside and retains Kendrick Carmouche. He will be tough, if he avoids getting caught up in an early battle. If he does hopefully #4 On the Ledge can work out the perfect trip. The 5YO has earned 3 career victories, including a win in his first start on the grass in late June. Ideally, jockey Christopher Elliott will find himself in the second tier like last out against similar.
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