Last Glory’s win at 58-1 in the Sunday finale helped pave the way to a tasty $51,750 Pick 6 carryover to kick off the racing week at Aqueduct. The sequence includes a pair of two-turn MSW turf races over the first half of the sequence and a full-field first-level allowance towards the back. Let’s dive in!
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
Race 3:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 2 Skylander; 6 High Tide; 5 Kahala
Backups: None
Forecast: The pace should be lively in this $16K starter allowance over the Big A’s one-turn mile configuration. This could make life tough for the 9-5-morning line favorite, #8 Smile Mon. The 4YO gelding has rattled off a pair of easy wins against lesser since leaving Saratoga, but is likely to have things more difficult in this one. 5-2-second choice #7 Winnin’onweekends brings in the fastest recent races and should get a more favorable voyage from just off the pace, but competes for a barn that is winless in seven starts shipping into Aqueduct over the last five years. Plus, the cutback to 1-turn presents additional questions.
I like #2 Skylander most. The 5YO gelding is protected by trainer Richard Dutrow Jr. after a dominant win over this configuration on October 17. Jockey Dylan Davis should be able to save ground early and get the jump on the closers. One of those closers is longshot #6 High Tide. The son of Malibu Moon has had most of his success over the turf, but comes in off a solid runner-up effort over dirt against lesser where he was claimed by Rudy Rodriguez, who is 4 for 11 over the last ten days. If they go at it upfront, he should be rolling late, as should #5 Kahala who finished third at 18-1 to Skylander last month in his first local try.
Race 4:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 3 African Waters; 7 Golden Note; 8 Mendee
Backups: None
Forecast: Trainer Chad Brown holds a strong hand in this MSW for fillies and mares over the Outer Turf. #5 Steel Lute is listed as the 9-5-favorite, while #4 Weighted Average as the 5-2-second choice. They both are obviously capable, but far from unbeatable. Steel Lute raced three times between August and December of her 2YO campaign, including a pair of runner-up efforts, but has been on the sidelines since. She is clearly capable of a move forward, but failed as the 6-5-choice when we saw her last on Christmas Eve in Florida and had a lot of time off after that disappointment before training at Monmouth Park this fall. Weighted Average raced twice in Kentucky as a 2YO and failed at 7-2-or less in both starts. She lacks early speed and was underwhelming despite hitting the board in her return in mid-September.
One way to beat the Brown duo is to get the jump and I expect all three of the runners I am including to do just that. #3 African Waters was caught three-wide into the first turn and was run down late in her first race in over eight months at Laurel Park on October 24. A move forward puts her squarely in the mix. #7 Golden Note chased the 8-5-favorite in her first start for trainer Michelle Giangiulio. I expect an aggressive ride in her second start off the bench with Kendrick Carmouche getting a leg up. #8 Mendee has had six chances already, but makes her third start of the form cycle after a pair of underneath efforts in the Mid-Atlantic. She should sit a stalking trip under Javier Castellano.
Race 5:
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 1 Olatz
Backups: None
Forecast: Sometimes hitting Pick 6’s requires an uncomfortable stand in a race where others may spread. I am going to take one of those with first-time starter #1 Olatz. The Peter Brant owned filly commanded over $666K at the Tattersalls October 2023 sale and has been training regularly in Saratoga in preparation for her first lifetime start. The daughter of Lope De Vega is out of a strong European female family and attracts Flavien Prat. I do not think there is all that much for her to beat in this 1 1/16-mile event over the lawn. Hopefully, I am right.
Race 6:
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 3 Montebello; 6 Legal Deal; 1 Mo Rewards
Backups: None
Forecast: I am not overly creative in the second race within the sequence conducted at one-mile over the main track. 3-1-morning line choice #6 Legal Deal makes a good deal of sense in his first start off the claim for Linda Rice, but very well could get caught up an early tussle with #2 Bar Fourteen and/or #8 Styner. #4 Mason Mania is the one on paper that makes the most sense to take advantage, but I am going to let him beat me after getting a run up the rail in a race that saw a three-horse suicidal speed duel. I will use #3 Montebello who returns to Aqueduct and cuts back to 1-turn after a third place effort at Finger Lakes against allowance foes, as well as #1 Mo Rewards who has been freshened up after capturing his first two starts over the main track since entering the Jamie Ness barn this summer.
Race 7:
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 1 Georgees Spirit; 7 Golden Rocket
Backups: 9 Marco T.
Forecast: The Thursday feature is a first-level allowance event for the ladies sprinting 6-panels over the Outer Turf and there is not much speed signed on. #3 Latest Edition, #5 Solib and #8 Striker Has Dial are the likeliest to be prominent early, but none of them strikes me fancy. Latest Edition makes her first start off the claim for a barn that is just 1 for 36 on the year, Solib failed to take advantage of an easy lead last month in a similar spot, and Striker Has Dial looks like a dirt horse to me. Therefore, I will use a few runners that hopefully will be up close enough to the moderate pace, but unlikely to be on the lead.
#1 Georgees Spirit has not raced in 13 months, but trainer Jorge Abreu is 3 for last 11 with runners coming back off 180+ day layoffs entered in turf sprints. She appears capable of a big effort off the bench, if Ricardo Santana Jr. can avoid traffic issues along the rail. #7 Golden Rocket moves back to the lawn after a fourth place run in a state-bred stake over the main track on October 27. She beat a number of her rivals in here two-back. I will add #9 Marco T as a backup. He was beaten on the square on October 10 by Golden Rocket, but has 2 wins in 6 starts over this course.
Race 8:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 6 Winter’s Ghost; 3 High Heat; 10 Classic Mark; 5 Bustin Shout
Backups: None
Forecast: The sequence concludes with an open $10K claimer at 7-furlongs where I find it difficult to get excited about the 5-2-morning line favorite, #7 Nolo Contesto. The 8YO ridgling makes his third start off the claim for Rob Atras. He gets a bit of class relief, but has already failed twice at 2-1 or less for his new barn and has an affinity for finishing second, not first. I will use several in hopes of beating the chalk to close things out!
Best of luck!!
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