The final week of the Keeneland 2024 season gets rolling with a huge carryover pool to chase!
One skilled gambler had the score of a lifetime in the Sunday Pick 6, but no horseplayers were able to connect on the late Pick 5, leaving us with over $301K in the pool that kicks off in Race 4 on Wednesday afternoon. So, without further ado, let’s dive in!
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
Race 4:
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 2 Nullarbor; 4 Show Time; 5 Strava
Backups: None
Forecast: The sequence kicks off with a tricky open $32k claimer at 1 1/16-miles over the main track where #9 Underdressed is listed as the 3-1-morning line choice. The Keen Ice gelding has won 7 of 33 in his career, but none of those victories have come in races scheduled for the main track making him tough to endorse shipping in from Horseshoe Indianapolis for trainer Aaron West. Plus, I am not sure he will get an ideal race shape to set up his late run.
#5 Strava is a tough read. The son of Into Mischief has been at his best for the most part at Churchill Downs in one-turn events. That said, he drops to by far the lowest level of his career after a pair of really disappointing efforts against significantly better. I will include the Norm Casse trainee, as well #2 Nullarbor who should be prominent from his inside draw shipping in from Illinois for trainer Steve Manley, and #4 Show Time who stretches back out to two-turns and attracts Tyler Gaffalione in his first try off the claim for trainer Jade Cunningham.
Race 5:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 2 High Shot; 4 My Brazilian Girl
Backups: 10 Birdwatching; 6 One Front War
Forecast: #10 Birdwatching is likely to be a very common single in this MSW event for the ladies at 8.5-furlongs over the sod. The Karakontie filly has finished second in each of her first two career starts, including last out when she failed as the 4-5-public favorite at Kentucky Downs. The Gainesway Stable filly had a pretty clean trip under James Graham, but was no match for the eventual winner who got the jump. The issue is, I am not sure how strong that race was considering the relatively easy winner came into the race 0 for 6 and finished 10th of 11 in her first start against winners. To be fair though, the same might be true of this group.
#4 My Brazilian Girl is an obvious alternative despite beating beaten 27 lengths at Laurel Park in her last start. The Golden Lad filly clearly is a turf horse, so she should love getting back to her preferred surface. #6 One Front War makes some sense too stretching out to a route of ground for the initial time for Mike Maker after breaking slowly at Kentucky Downs when we saw her last.
If you are looking for a bigger price, perhaps #2 High Shot can put forth a big run in her first start around two turns. Her turf start at Colonial Downs two-back was her career best effort and she is out of a Skipshot mare who earned over $200k competing in two-turn grass races. She draws favorably to the inside for an underrated conditioner in Mark Simms, Jr. Not only is she worth inclusion, but I might place a Win bet on her as well.
Race 6:
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 6 Landed; 7 Everland
Backups: None
Forecast: Stakes winners #5 Intricate and #6 Landed headline the field for this second-level allowance event with a massive $120k purse. Intricate gets some much-needed class relief after a well-beaten fifth place effort in the Alabama (G1) in mid-August. The Gun Runner filly was quite impressive as a 2YO, but does not seem to have matured much during her 3YO campaign. The decrease in competition will help, but I am unwilling to swallow the likely chalk. On the other hand, Landed has continued to progress for trainer Wesley Ward. The pricey New York-bred daughter of Omaha Beach has rattled off 3 in a row, including a victory over this surface against open company allowance foes in April. She will be tough to catch if she has things her way on the front end.
If they go at it early, #7 Everland is the one that benefits most. The Arrogate filly was beaten handily by Thorpedo Anna in the Cotillion (G1), but does not meet anyone of that caliber in this field. The Eric Foster trainee has earned all three of her career victories over Turfway Park’s all-weather surface, but has run better over the main track that it might appear at first glance.
Race 7:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 1 Arrest Me Red; 6 Mischievous Rogue
Backups: 10 Mo Stash; 7 Outadore
Forecast: A high-level allowance sprinting over the lawn that easily could be a Grade 3 is up next and as often is the case, the pace should be quick in this 5.5-furlong dash. This should work out well for #1 Arrest Me Red. The 6YO gelding comes in off a head victory against similar at Kentucky Downs and retains the services of Frankie Dettori. Dettori will need to avoid traffic issues from the rail draw, but this one’s tactical speed should have the veteran rider in a perfect position when they turn for home. He is my top choice, but I also like #6 Mischievous Rogue. The son of Into Mischief has a win and a second in two starts over this course and should be rolling late under Joel Rosario.
#10 Mo Stash also makes a ton of sense and should get a favorable outside stalking voyage over a turf course he has shown an affinity for. The only question is how will he bounce back after a poor effort against some of the best turf sprinters in the land in the Turf Sprint (G2) on September 7. #7 Outadore fits well and is dangerous if the pace is less contentious than I anticipate, so I will use him as a backup too.
Race 8:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 4 Touchy
Backups: 12 Amor Patriae; 11 Campaign Trail; 10 Original Sin
Forecast: The Pick 5 closes with this MSW event for 2YO’s at 6.5-furlongs where #4 Touchy is the other likeliest single in addition to Birdwatching in Race 5. The Three Chimneys Farm homebred takes on maidens for the first time after facing stakes foes in each of his first two starts for Wesley Ward. Ward obviously thought highly of this colt as did the public, but he failed them at below 2-1 in both runs. That said, his run in the Saratoga Special (G2) is better than looks since he was caught wide throughout on a day when they rail was the place to be. Now he drops into the maiden ranks for the first time, is the clear one to beat, and an understandable horse to lean on if you have a limited budget.
A pair of first-time starters offer the best chance at beating the chalk. #10 Original Sin is bred to want more ground, but fading Brad Cox in spots like this can prove to be unwise. #12 Amor Patriae debuts for a barn that is 7 for their last 32 with 2YO first-time starters, including a win with firster Big Boat at the Churchill Downs September meet. Finally, I will include #11 Campaign Trail. The Global Campaign colt put forth a solid third to Breeders’ Futurity (G1) winner East Avenue on debut and attracts Tyler Gaffalione. If she can get back to that start at Ellis Park she can be there at the wire at a big price.
Best of luck taking a swing into this massive pool!
.svg){kind=logo}
