Opening Week at the Keeneland Fall Meet is in the rearview mirror, but it left with a juicy $265k carryover after no one was able to connect the dots in the early Pick 5 on Sunday afternoon. The pool should be massive and the sequence gets rolling with the opener on the Wednesday afternoon card, so let’s dive in.
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
Race 1:
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 1 Never Sway; 2 Simple Souvenir
Backups: 3 Forever Home
Forecast: Speed was really good on opening day and the rail was good all of opening week, so keeping that in mind, I landed on #1 Never Sway in a challenging opener. The Clubhouse Ride mare has been freshened up after besting just a field of 4 at Colonial Downs this summer for Robertino Diodoro. Obviously, the 5YO mare has soundness issues of some sort since she has struggled to put races together of late, but she has won 3 of 4 since entering the Diodoro barn and draws the inside. At 6-1 she is very playable. #2 Simple Souvenir is a bigger price and is not impossible. The Ontario-bred ships in from the Jersey Shore after a win and two seconds this summer at Monmouth Park. If the rail is good again, she should benefit.
9-5-morning line favorite #3 Forever Home makes sense after her second consecutive win at Churchill Downs against a couple of today’s rivals, but she is 0 for 3 at Keeneland and 0 for 5 at 6.5-furlongs making her tough to get too excited about at her expected price. I will include her as a backup since she is one of the likelier winners, but hope to beat her with one of the two inside runners.
Race 2:
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 2 Maliblue; 6 D Day; 12 Masked Man; 8 Afleet Vintage
Backups: None
Forecast: The sequence rolls on with a $20K maiden claimer where I assume most horseplayers will spread, including myself. That said, if you have a strong opinion, especially with a non-favorite in this one, it would be a savvy move to go thin here and get more coverage elsewhere.
Normally, I am willing to let horses like #2 Maliblue beat me. He has had eight starts already for a barn that is just 4% at Keeneland over a 115-start sample size, but has speed and draws the inside on the move from turf-to-dirt. If the track plays like it did last week, he should be around
late. #6 D Day is an intriguing wild card contender. The son of Omaha Beach has disappointed thus far, but against far better competition. Trainer Rob Atras has won with 2 of his last 6 starts at Keeneland. #12 Masked Man has upside still unlike several of his main rivals and attracts Irad Ortiz Jr. He might get over bet, but is still difficult to leave off your tickets. #8 Afleet Vintage debuts for Tom Drury Jr. He is not spotted too ambitiously here after taking a while to get to the races, but will not have to be much to be competitive in this spot.
Race 3:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 3 Sound Doctrine; 2 Dutch Mills
Backups: None
Forecast: #1 Invulnerable is listed as the 6-5-morning line favorite on the big class drop for trainer Joe Sharp and likely to be a very popular single in a challenging sequence. The Practical Joke gelding was really good to start his career for trainer Joe Sharp, but has been disappointing since returning from a nine-month break back in November of ’23. The class relief, rail, and presence of Irad Ortiz Jr. all help his chances, but I am still willing to take a stand against him.
I will use two runners against the chalk, including top pick #3 Sound Doctrine. The son of Mucho Macho Man moves up in class after a dominant wire-to-wire score at odds-on at Churchill Downs in mid-September. If he is able to control the early tempo once again, he should be tough to catch late. #2 Dutch Mills also makes sense. The Runhappy colt ships in from the Mid-Atlantic having won 3 of 4. If they go too fast early, hopefully he is the one that benefits.
Race 4:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 2 Tallahatchiebridge; 1 Stage Left
Backups: None
Forecast: The pace should be honest in this open $16k claimer over the main track, which bodes well for the top two choices on the morning line. #1 Stage Left is a bit of a tough read shipping in for David Jacobson. The 2-1-morning line favorite takes a big drop in class after stumbling and losing his rider at Aqueduct in September. He has kept far better company than his competition of here in late, but the drop does seem a bit drastic. If he runs anything close to his best, he wins. If not, #2 Tallahatchiebridge looms large. The son of Will Take Charge makes his third start off the claim for Eddie Kenneally. He chased better while wide at Churchill Downs last month. He is a must use regardless of your opinion on Stage Left.
Race 5:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 2 El Megeeth; 6 Fifth of May; 14 Enchant
Backups: 10 Estuary
Forecast: The sequence concludes with a full-field MSW event at nine-furlongs over the lawn where the top choice on oddsmaker Nick Tammaro’s morning line is found on the also-eligible list in #14 Enchant. The Brendan Walsh trainee debuted at Ellis Park in August and missed by just a half-length to a filly that had far more experience. She makes sense after gaining invaluable racing experience last out, but might struggle to avoid a wide voyage after saving ground throughout in her debut. I much prefer her though to the co-second choices, #12 Raconteuse and #15 Weighted Average. Raconteuse has had ten chances already against similar or lesser while Weighted Average’s lack of early zip is likely to leave her too much to do late.
#2 El Megeeth failed to break her maiden this winter in Florida for Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher, but has been given time and draws favorably to the inside. I expect her to run well. #6 Fifth of May has only raced once and it came going six-furlongs at Kentucky Downs. She should move forward here on the stretch out for trainer Ben Colebrook. #10 Estuary draws towards the outside, but should improve after chasing and tiring badly on debut. I will include her as a backup.
Good luck taking down your share of this carryover!
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