A big weekend of racing in Pennsylvania gets rolling on Friday afternoon at Presque Isle Downs and continues on Saturday where it is Pennsylvania Derby Day at Parx. As part of this, the two tracks have created a new wager called the Pennsylvania Pick 4. The wager kicks off with the Presque Isle Mile and Masters (G2) on Friday and continues on Saturday with the Cotillion (G1) and the PA Derby (G1). The wager has a 15% takeout with a fifty-cent minimum. Here are my thoughts:
Race 7, Friday, Presque Isle: $150k Presque Isle Mile
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 8 Forever Souper
Backups: None
Forecast: #8 Forever Souper is listed as the 2-1-morning line favorite coming in on a two-race winning streak for trainer Michael Trombetta. Last out in the $80k Whisman Memorial, the American Pharoah gelding got a great trip off an early battle and won convincingly. He should get another contentious pace to stalk off on Friday given the presence of #2 Fierce and Strong, #5 K.C. Chief, and #10 Franz Josef. This should make him very tough to beat to kick off the sequence.
Race 9, Friday, Presque Isle: Masters (G2)
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 6 Nice as Pie; 1 Sunday Shoes
Backups: None
Forecast: Trainer Christophe Clement holds a strong hand in this year’s Presque Isle Downs Masters with 9-5-favorite #2 Roses for Debra and 5-2-second choice #8 Gal in a Rush.
At one point, Roses for Debra was 8 for 9 but the Liam’s Map mare has lost 4 of her last 5 starts, including last month over the Saratoga turf where she finished an underwhelming third in the Smart N’ Fancy. Sure, she won her first four starts over this all-weather surface, but she won everything back then other than her lone dirt try, so I am not willing to bump her up for her strong record over this course. On the other hand, Gal in a Rush runs at Presque Isle for the initial time and despite losing by a neck in the Seaway (G3) comes into the Masters in the best form of her career. That said, she has lost 3 of her last 8 races by a length or less making her tough to trust to get the job done even if she puts forth her best effort. I will try to beat the Clement duo with a pair of fillies I got to see at Turfway Park.
#6 Nice as Pie was awesome over the all-weather this past winter for trainer Kelsey Danner. The Tapiture filly rattled off four consecutive wins, including a pair of stakes victories under jockey Adam Beschizza. She raced twice over the turf in May before heading to the sidelines. Now the Dede McGehee homebred gets back to her preferred surface and should be rolling late at a square price.
#1 Sunday Shoes has not progressed as much as I had hoped after rattling off a pair of impressive wins in 2023 to kick off her career for trainer Wesley Ward. Unlike most Ward runners, this $500k daughter of Pioneerof the Nile does not possess a lot of early speed, but she can sure finish. She will have to put forth a career best performance to best this bunch, but that is definitely within the range of outcomes. Hopefully, one of these two gals can run this group down and give us some much-needed separation in the sequence.
Race 12, Saturday, Parx: Cotillion (G1)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 6 Thorpedo Anna
Backups: None
Forecast: It would be excellent if I had a great plan of attack for beating the odds-on favorite #6 Thorpedo Anna in this 1 1/16-mile event for 3YO fillies, but that is not the case. The Fast Anna filly has progressed perfectly throughout her 3YO campaign for trainer Kenny McPeek, so expecting regression in this spot seems unwise. She comes in off a head defeat in the Travers (G1) but lost absolutely nothing in defeat. In fact, one could easily argue she was best. Now, after showing she was as good as the boys of her crop, the $40k FTK October 2022 purchase takes on her own gender once again, which comes with some serious class relief. Look for Brian Hernandez, Jr. to play the break and find a prominent spot early. This should lead to her seventh career victory and set Thorpedo Anna up for her first shot against older runners in the Breeders’ Cup.
Race 13, Saturday, Parx: Pennsylvania Derby (G1)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 5 Protective; 11 Stronghold
Backups: 3 Dragoon Guard
Forecast: This year’s Pennsylvania Derby field is led by #7 Dragoon Guard. The well-bred Arrogate colt has really come into his own after being on the sidelines during most of the 2024 Road to the Kentucky Derby. The Juddmonte homebred has done his best though to make up for the late start to his 3YO campaign. He comes into the toughest task of his career on a four-race winning streak, including a pair of dominant front running efforts in the Indiana Derby (G3) and West Virginia Derby (G3).
Dragoon Guard is the deserving favorite, but will likely have to work hard throughout if he wants to earn his first Grade 1 score since the pace is likely to be contentious. Not only is there plenty of speed on paper, but I expect much more aggressive tactics from the riders of #2 Seize the Grey and #8 Unmatched Wisdom after unsuccessfully trying new tactics in the Travers (G1) last month. Dragoon Guard might just be better than these, but the rest of the runners that do their best running on the front end appear up against it assuming the racetrack is fair.
I am going to take a shot with a horse hopefully peaking at the right time in #5 Protective. The Repole Stable runner is just 1 for 7 and his lone win came against a four-horse field at 1 to 20 last out, but clearly Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher has always thought highly of this colt. The son of Medaglia d’Oro has the right running style to take advantage of the probable race shape and appears poised to fire his best shot. Hopefully, its good enough. I will also use the second choice #11 Stronghold. The son of Ghostzapper was defeated by Dragoon Guard when we saw him last in the Indiana Derby (G3) but got caught in tight and was shuffled back a bit early. With the move to an outside draw, I expect Antonio Fresu to sit comfortably off the pace and make his move on the far turn. This could end up being the perfect trip in this year’s PA Derby.
Good luck this weekend in PA!
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