.jpg)
The first week of the 2024 Kentucky Downs meeting concludes with an 11-race card where the Money Back Special at Xpressbet and 1/ST BET rolls on. Here are my thoughts on the select races, where you get up to $10 back on your first Win bet if your horse finishes second or third.
Race 5:
The pace should be honest in this second-level allowance event at one-mile given the presence of 5-2-morning line favorite #6 Ocean Atlantique, #7 West Coast Cruiser, #8 Franz Josef, and #9 Ducale. This bodes well for the grizzled veteran, #11 Gray’s Fable. The son of Gio Ponti failed to fire when we saw him last in a stakes event over the yielding going at Horseshoe Indianapolis on the Indiana Derby undercard, but is still highly capable after 36 lifetime starts. Sure, he is 0 for 2 over this unique configuration, but both those efforts were in the Mint Million (G3) at odds of 18-1 and 27-1 respectively. This is a much more favorable spot where hopefully he gets the fast pace to chase.
Play: #11 Gray’s Fable (7-2 ML)
Race 9:
You do not see a lot of $500k handicap races, but that is exactly what we have in Sunday’s second opportunity at a Money Back Special, where a brisk first-half mile appears likely. For that reason, I am willing to go back to #7 Dataman despite hurting my bankroll last month with his fifth-place effort in the United Nations (G2). In the marquee turf event on the Haskell Stakes undercard, the Tapit gelding got off to his normal slow start and did not have a favorable setup in a race dominated on the front end by Get Smokin. No doubt the Graham Motion trainee is going to have a lot of work to do in the lane on the cutback to eight furlongs, but he should be rolling late if the pace is as fast as I anticipate.
Play: #7 Dataman (9-2 ML)
Race 10:
The lone stakes race on the Sunday card offers horseplayers the last chance this week at the Money Back Special. The Juvenile Turf Sprint S. has a plethora of runners that have proven successful very early on in their careers either on the front end or sitting just off the pace. This is not abnormal by any stretch in 2YO stakes, but is still worth noting because they obviously all cannot be upfront. Who breaks well and is the speed of the speed involves a lot of guess work, so demanding value is a must.
With that in mind, I landed on #9 Chasing Liberty. The Twin Creeks Farm homebred showed solid gate speed but also the ability to relax just off the pace in his debut maiden score at Ellis Park in late July. He once again is in a position with his outside draw to stalk just off the pace under jockey Florent Geroux. His effort at the “Pea Patch” did not get a big number but that should only help his price. Let’s blow up the toteboard to close out the racing week.
Play: #9 Chasing Liberty (20-1 ML)
Good luck Sunday afternoon!
.svg){kind=logo}
