Championship Saturday is just hours away at this point. Nine Grade 1 events with Eclipse Awards up for grabs and the best in the world competing for massive purses. What more could a horseplayer ask for?
Winners I suppose, along with at least six $2 exactas to help you earn your share of the $15k up for grabs during the Saturday portion of our $25,000 Exacta-Thon promotion. Check out my Friday blog or the promotional landing page for more details. So, without further ado (pun intended), here is how I see the full 12-race Breeders’ Cup World Championships card that gets started at 11:15 AM eastern.
Grade Descriptions: A= Highest Degree of Confidence, B= Solid Play, C= Least Preferred or Pass, X= Likely Winner but at odds probably too short to wager on.
Race 1:
Grade: B
Use: 4 Knicks Diamonds; 7 Bourbon Neat
Forecast: The Breeders’ Cup undercard kicks off with this MSW event for 2YOs at seven-furlongs over the main track where I like second-time starter #4 Knicks Diamonds. The son of Knicks Go broke sharp on debut before being taken in hand by jockey Francisco Arrieta to sit mid-pack. The Matthew Sims trainee remained outside throughout, which was not ideal over the October 2 surface before putting in a solid late run to earn third. The Jerome Russell homebred has every reason to move forward with the start under his belt and the added furlong. Sims may not be a household name, but he is capable and does a strong job with the stock he gets. Hopefully, he gets overlooked in the wagering in the first leg of the early Pick 5.
Race 2:
Grade: B-
Use: 4 Harmoniously; 5 Virabhadrasana
Forecast: This second-level allowance event for 2YO fillies at seven-furlongs over the main track goes through 5-2-ML favorite #9 Right in Time. The Riley Mott trainee won easily on debut in gate-to-wire fashion over this racetrack, but is likely to have to deal with a lot more company in the early stages in her first try versus winners. So, I will use a pair of runners I expect to sit a few lengths off the early proceedings. #5 Virabhadrasana regressed last out against allowance foes after a win going away to break her maiden at Saratoga. She should get the right trip, as should top pick #4 Harmoniously. The Cherie DeVaux trainee broke on top and went to the lead on debut at Ellis Park in late August, but I expect different tactics under Jose Ortiz. She finished well in her upset victory at first asking and should have no issue with the added ground. A perfect pocket voyage is possible and would make her tough to beat.
Race 3:
Grade: B
Use: 2 Steeze/11 Saudi Crown; 1 Booth
Forecast: This third-level allowance event at 6.5-furlongs over the main track could easily be a stakes race. 5-2-ML favorite #11 Saudi Crown has competed in almost all stakes events over the last couple years and has put together quite a resume earning over $3.7M for trainer Brad Cox. The 6YO son of Always Dreaming is likely to sit a favorable stalking voyage over a racetrack he is 2 for 2 over, but is almost certain to get over bet by the public. I will use him underneath, but focus my wagering on #2 Steeze. The son of Vekoma takes on the toughest group he has encountered thus far and needs to prove he can perform as well without the anti-bleeding medication Lasix, but I love the way he comes into the race. He is one of the stronger finishers in this group and should get a ground saving, mid-pack voyage under Junior Alvarado.
Race 4: Filly & Mare Sprint (G1)
Grade: B-
Use: 5 Foie Gras; 11 Explora; 12 Kilwin/7 Evanescence; 6 Majestic Oops
Forecast: #2 Ways and Means is the understandable 7-5-ML favorite in the first of nine Breeders’ Cup races to close the afternoon. The Practical Joke mare comes in having won 2 of 3 in 2026, including a dominant victory in the Ballerina (G1) when we saw her last. If she runs to her races at Saratoga, they are running for second, but the potential good news for those looking for value is that she has yet to run as fast elsewhere. Couple with that a potentially dirt-filled trip down on the inside and it feels like a good chance to take a swing against the chalk.
A number of runners appear live with #11 Explora one of the likeliest winners. The problem is the early pace could be quick, which brings horses like #6 Majestic Oops, #7 Evanescence, and #12 Kilwin into the mix. That said, I am hopeful to get a perfect stalking trip with longshot #5 Foie Gras. The Mike Maker trainee has done very little wrong through five starts in 2026 and comes in off an easy victory at 6-5 in the Pink Ribbon at Charlestown. Veteran Joel Rosario takes the mount.
Race 5: Turf Sprint (G1)
Grade: B-
Use: 12 Sorrento Sky; 10 Cy Fair/3 Bacio; 13 Starlust; 5 Time to Dazzle
Forecast: #3 Bacio enters the Turf Sprint with a 5 for 6-record with his lone loss coming by a half-length in career start number two at Santa Anita last fall. He has been training well and is the one to beat on paper, but this race could play out far differently than others he has been in given the serious speed to his inside and immediate outside. If Juan Hernandez can avoid getting caught up in a potential early tussle, the Maclean’s Music colt is in with a big chance, but that is a big “if” in this full-field event at 5.5-furlongs, so I will take a swing against at his 5-2-ML offering.
I almost landed on the 3YO filly #10 Cy Fair, who deserved better in her sixth-place effort at odds-on at Kentucky Downs in September, but will have to put forth a career best run chasing a fast pace to do so. Instead, I went with late running #12 Sorrento Sky. The 5YO gelding has always been honest, but struggled to win races at the stakes level. That changed this summer when he came with a last-to-first rally to win the Green Flash (G2) before backing it up with a score in the Eddie D (G2). Jockey Umberto Rispoli has a challenge to avoid significant ground loss, but at least he should avoid traffic issues. The price should be right to gamble for a late collapse.
Race 6: Dirt Mile (G1)
Grade: B-
Use: 7 Bracket Buster/11 Iron Man Cal; 3 Full Serrano
Forecast: #1 Further Ado is likely to take a ton of public support in this year’s Dirt Mile given his connections, resume, and success over this surface. He is another horse that obviously can win, but is likely to take far too much public money for me. I prefer #7 Bracket Buster. Many will look to his loss at Parx at odds-on last month and come to the conclusion that this class level is a bit much for the Vekoma colt, but I thought he ran fine in the Parx Dirt Mile and just ran into a horse that got the jump and forgot to stop. Unlike many in this group, the 4YO has been pointing to this race for awhile now and should relish the two-turn one-mile configuration at Keeneland. Johnny V is back to ride after being aboard in each of his last three starts.
Race 7: Filly & Mare Turf (G1)
Grade: C
Use: 8 Jancis; 12 Blue Bolt; 3 Classic Q; 4 Red Letter
Forecast: Horses based outside of the United States have dominated this event of late, including Gezora a year ago. I do not see that changing in 2026 where #12 Blue Bolt is the clear one to beat, but has to answer distance questions. The same is true for second choice #11 Precise. Both European-based fillies bring incredibly strong resumes in, but their likely price makes them tough to endorse with confidence. I took a swing instead with #8 Jancis. The 5YO mare makes her second start in North America after a neck loss to #1 Gimme a Nother in the E.P. Taylor (G1) in Canada in September. She and #4 Red Letter are the international runners that could get overlooked in the wagering making them intriguing alternatives to the favorites.
Race 8: Sprint (G1)
Grade: X
Use: 13 Englishman/11 T O Elvis
Forecast: I have no desire to get creative in this year’s Sprint given the presence of #13 Englishman and #11 T O Elvis. In a vacuum, Englishman is the fastest horse in this race and training like he is ready to run another big one. The caveat is there is a lot of speed signed on to his inside. The outside draw should benefit the 4-5-favorite, but he could get caught wide throughout battling with some other serious sprinters. This would pave the way for T O Elvis. The Churchill Downs (G1) winner has not raced since his upset score on Derby Day, but has been pointed to this race and appears to be coming into it ready to fire another big shot. I would be surprised if one of the two top choices get to the wire first.
Race 9: Mile (G1)
Grade: B+
Use: 8 Notable Speech/12 True Love
Forecast: Trainer Charles Appleby has won this race 4 of the last 5 years and has a massive shot to win yet another. Appleby sends out last year’s winner #8 Notable Speech. The Godolphin homebred has won 3 of 5 since his off-the-pace score at Del Mar, including a strong run in the Woodbine Mile (G1) last month. The 5YO gelding appears to be as good as ever and should get a great setup with regular rider William Buick back aboard in hopes of adding to his record four wins in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. I am not betting against him doing so.
Race 10: Distaff (G1)
Grade: B
Use: 4 Fully Subscribed; 6 Measure/3 Regaled
Forecast: I was disappointed by the scratches of #5 Scottish Lassie and #8 Splendora in this year’s Distaff because prior to their omission this was my favorite betting race of the weekend. I still like it, but am not as confident in the pace being fast early. It should still be honest though, which should bode well for those who can settle early and finish.
#4 Fully Subscribed is for the most part race shape independent given her tactical speed, but is best off with an honest early tempo. This would allow Flavien Prat to settle mid-pack and get a significant jump on the closers. If the pace is as hot as I originally suspected, #6 Measure is very live to pick up the pieces at a price. The daughter of Essential Quality has just one win on her resume, but is a strong finisher that benefits with the nine-furlong distance more than others. She should be finishing well, as should #3 Regaled. The concern with the Whit Beckman trainee is that she is far better over an off-track. Fortunately, it looks like the weather will be good for Championship Saturday.
Race 11: Turf (G1)
Grade: C
Use: 2 Benvenuto Cellini; 13 Bay City Roller; 12 Diamond Necklace; 1 Ethical Diamond; 7 Hotazhell; 9 Johanna Walsh; 10 Tiffany
Forecast: As you can see from my grade and the number of runners I am using in this year’s Turf, I lack a strong opinion other than I do not anticipate a runner from the United States hitting the wire first. I went with #2 Benvenuto Cellini on top given his post and rider, but obviously #12 Diamond Necklace and #13 Bay City Roller merit major respect as well. Do not snooze on last year’s winner #1 Ethical Diamond. He will not be 27-1 again, but could be a double-digit offering when the bell sounds.
Race 12: Classic (G1)
Grade: C+
Use: 4 The Puma; 5 Forever Young; 2 Sovereignty; 7 Knightsbridge
Forecast: All three favorites in this year’s Classic offer strong cases for why they will win the lion’s share of the $7M purse. #5 Forever Young’s resume speaks for itself. The son of Real Steel has won 12 of 16 for over $32M, including last year’s event out west. He also benefits from the scratch of #6 Magnitude. This should allow him to sit a few lengths off what might be a more moderate pace than it appeared earlier in the week. #2 Sovereignty put on a show at the Spa in the Whitney (G1) when we saw him last, but not only has he not raced since, but he missed some training along the way. The fact he is racing is a bullish sign for me. We know his best is good enough. #7 Knightsbridge is almost certain to be the biggest price of the three, but clearly benefitted most from the defection of Magnitude. I do not think he is a true ten-furlong horse, but if the pace is moderate that aids his chances of finishing the deal.
I had a difficult time separating the favorites and do not find any of them appealing options at their likely off-odds, so I will build my wagers around a price instead. #4 The Puma ran a career best race with the addition of blinkers in the Pennsylvania Derby last month. He overcame a wide middle move and still came home strong under jockey Javier Castellano. I wish there was a guaranteed fast pace, but this is the colt that offers the best value opportunity since he did not compete in the Triple Crown this spring and appears to be peaking at the right time.
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