Race 1 Jockey Club Local Handicap
The handicap conditions will bring most of this field together. Last year, the highweight finished up the track and outside post positions did well.
ALMOBEER was a good second here last year behind a runaway winner. He came back here nine months later with a good win then raced evenly next out here going longer. Last out carrying 130 pounds going 1 � miles, he romped by five lengths with Joel Rosario who is back aboard.
BADR ALAELHA’A gets in light as he moves up in class. He did little two starts back behind ALMOBEER but bounced back with a good win carrying 134 pounds. Christophe Lemaire gets the mount and his record on Saudi Cup day is impeccable.
KATHEER has faced many of these in the past and comes in here in top shape. He was no match for ALMOBEER three starts back but won his two starts including a win carrying 137 pounds. Leading local rider Adel Alfouraidi returns in the irons.
LELAH DOROH has to carry co-highweight but the lightly-raced four-year-old comes in here off two straight wins going this distance off a layoff. He looks like he is still improving but needs careful handling.
SAODAD was a good third in this race last year and has won 18 times. He was a distant second last out going seven furlongs in a prep for this and gets America’s leading rider Irad Ortiz, Jr. in the saddle.
SELECTIONS: 3. ALMOBEER, 19. BADR ALAELHA’A, 10. KATHEER, 4. LELAH DOROH & 14. SAODAD
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Race 2 Arabian Classic
The 1 1/4-mile distance makes this a challenge for many of these. Interesting field with many prolific winners.
ASFAN AL KHALEDIAH looks like he has this field at his mercy. Undefeated in 13 starts, he loves this course and shows two wins at today’s distance. He romped in his prep race for this going seven furlongs. Look all you want, at level weights, it’s hard to come up with a legitimate reason that he suffers his first career loss.
NAJEEB AL ZAMAN won here two starts bac here going this distance by over 10 lengths. He came back and was a good second to the top choice before that going a mile. With three wins at this distance, he could benefit if the top choice falters.
VICA GRINE the good news is that he has won eight races in a row. The difficult news is that they came in Morocco and it is hard to judge how that form will translate to here. He won his lone start at today’s distance by seven lengths so the only question is whether he is good enough.
VIZHIR is lightly raced compared to his veteran rivals here. Only age four, he has won his last three starts here by wide margins and now moves up in class. He gets 11 pounds from the top choices so that should help and a 10-length win going this distance provides some confidence that he can run with these.
DERGHAM ATHBAH was no match for the top choice the last three times he faced him but has two clear wins in his past three starts; one at today’s distance. He carried this weight to victory last out so he could get in the money.
SELECTIONS: 2. ASFAN AL KHALEDIAH, 6. NAJEEB AL ZAMAN, 9. VICA GRINE, 11. VIZHIR & 3. DERGHAM ATHBAH
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Race 3 Saudi International Handicap
Handicap racing combines the difference in weight carried multiplied by post position. It is very hard to carry high weight from a poor draw and those that do need to be at long enough odds to make it worthwhile. The distance of 2100 meters has favored front-running tactics here since the course was installed so there are many factors that have to be considered.
FINEST SOUND was a solid turf campaigner while racing in Europe and Dubai with many placings against group company. His best was second in the G1 Jebel Hatta two years ago and eventually went to the sidelines for 14 months. The son of EXCEED AND EXCEL returned here with some decent efforts on the dirt against good company and should benefit from the return to turf.
FLYING VISIT raced in the last two runnings of the G3 Neom Turf Cup going this distance when stuck behind runaway winners. Off a ten-month layoff, he raced evenly in a wide trip from post 10 and should be much better second up (he won under the same circumstances last year.)
AUSTRAL looks like an improving horse that carries 10 pounds less that the highweight. He has had four straight races at Doha on the turf and was second in good time from post 13 going a similar distance to today while carrying 131 pounds. Only a four-year-old, he draws a favorable post with Christophe Soumillon, who rode him in France last year, getting the mount.
KING SHALAA was a game second in this race two years ago then did little last year when he carried 136 pounds. Off for seven months, he returned at Doha where he was third in the G3 Barzan Cup going a mile after drawing post 14. Based there, he has the advantage of always having turf to race on.
THE COVEX KID ran second and third in two starts off a layoff in Bahrain going a mile. He came here and was a good third over this turf course going today’s distance and his only poor start the past year came from post 13 going longer. He’s won eight times from 21 starts and is the most consistent runner of this group.
SELECTIONS: 1. FINEST SOUND, 4. FLYING VISIT, 9. AUSTRAL, 7. KING SHALAA & 5. THE COVEX KID
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Race 4 Saudi Derby
This year’s Derby has a strong contingent from Japan, a couple of Americans and some local horses. The distance does not favor any running style and post positions are not important.
FOREVER YOUNG showed immense talent as a two-year-old in Japan when he won his career debut going nine furlongs so stamina is not an issue. He came back with another win going the same distance then turned back to a mile and won by seven lengths for Yoshito Yahagi who won last year’s G1 Saudi Cup and G3 1351 Turf Sprint. He gets a major test here but he has plenty of class being out of a grade two stakes winner on dirt.
SET UP won his second career start going nine furlongs on the turf then came back and won the G3 Sapporo Nisal Stakes going the same distance. Last out in the G1 Futurity Stakes, he led to the deep stretch in fast time going today’s distance. He switches to the dirt today but DECLARATION OF WAR was a two-time group one stakes winner on turf but finished his career with a close third in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Classic on dirt. His offspring are just as versatile on any surface.
BOOK ’EM DANNO is a versatile American three-year-old gelding that won his first two career starts on the dirt going short. He won a listed stakes race on the turf then just missed back on the dirt at today’s distance. Last out, he won by 12 lengths as the heavy favorite going seven furlongs when he sat just off the pace. His ability to win on either surface and relax early should be a major asset here.
BENTORNATO won his first four career starts and had no trouble as the races got longer. He finished up last season with a good third going two turns and has been pointed for this race since then. The negative is that three of his four wins came against restricted races against horses that were bred in Florida.
AJWADI began his career in Great Britain against modest company on turf and synthetic going short. He made his local debut two starts back here with a distant third but bounced back with a good win going this distance on a tiring track. If he can continue the form cycle it looks like he is on, he has a shot to be in the money.
SELECTIONS: 6. FOREVER YOUNG, 12. SET UP, 5. BOOK ’EM DANNO, 4. BENTORNATO & 2. AJWADI
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Race 5 Riyadh Dirt Sprint
This year’s renewal does not have a strong American presence like it usually does so it looks like a wide open race. There is plenty of speed so we could see a pace meltdown and set it up for a closer.
REMAKE rallied for third in last year’s race but that was against a much tougher field. After an even finish in the G1 Dubai Golden Shaheen, he just missed in a group three starts back in Japan. He followed that up with a win on a muddy track then went to Korea to easily win a group three. I think he’s a better horse this year and meets softer.
REBELLIOUS STAGE ran well in America last year in two starts then shifted to Saudi Arabia. He has won all three local starts over this surface and his last prep was an easy win carrying 137 pounds. Son of JUSTIFY carries the local flag and is improving every start. With a win at seven furlongs here two starts back, he should be strong enough to handle the surface.
SKELLY is a blazing-fast sprinter from Steve Asmussen that will try to run away and hide from this field. He has won his last seven starts but only has a grade three stakes race to show for it. His four-year-old season went bad and was off for seven months before returning at Oaklawn Park with two easy wins where he dominated lesser fields as the heavy favorite. He should be the one to catch.
Trainer Bill Mott won this race last year with ELITE POWER and returns with BOLD JOURNEY. An improving five-year-old, he has won his last three starts including a grade three stakes race. He’ll settle off the pace and finish strong and should handle the surface if he gets clear running around the turn. Mott has won races all over the world and only ships when he has a legitimate chance.
JASPER KRONE won two group three stakes races in Japan on the turf. After being beaten by only two lengths in the G1 Sprinters Stakes, he had trouble running left-handed in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint. At Hong Kong last out, he was much better going this way and had the lead turning for home in the G1 Hong Kong Sprint. This is his dirt debut but his sire, FROSTED, was a multiple grade one stakes winner on the dirt in America.
SELECTIONS: 9. REMAKE, 8. REBELLIOUS STAGE, 10. SKELLY, 3. BOLD JOURNEY & 5. JASPER KRONE
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Race 6 1351 Turf Sprint
This turf sprint is run at 1351m and begins at the start of the backstretch with a long run into the first turn. It can be won by racing on the lead or coming from far back so it is probably the fairest of today’s races since the field will have plenty of time to sort itself before the turn.
AGURI moved up in company last year at the age of four. He raced evenly in Hong Kong behind LUCKY SWEYNESSE, the world’s top-rated turf sprinter, then just missed in a group two stakes back in Japan. He finished his season with a close third going a similar distance and already has a fast prep for this when he chased the pace from a wide draw as the betting favorite. His record going a similar distance makes him tough in here and Christophe Lemaire will have to send him from the inside.
This international sprint star has already shipped to Canada at two then Ascot and Saratoga at three. MYSTERIOUS NIGHT has been wintering in Dubai where he won his last two starts including a win in the G2 Al Fahidi Fort Stakes. He comes in here off two straight stakes wins including a very fast win going seven furlongs at Meydan in fast time. The son of top turf sprint sire DARK ANGEL’s record in one-turn races is stellar.
The defending champ, BATHRAT LEON, returns but doesn’t look like he is in the same form. He was 9-1 then and should be around there this year. His races since then were all on the dirt until he tried the G1 Mile Championsip where he was outrun at 176-1. The drop in class, distance and a return to a course that he has won over still makes him a contender today.
WIN GREATEST was mostly a miler until dropping back to seven furlongs and winning the G2 Sho Swan Stakes in good time. He ran well in the G2 Hanshin Cup and has strong early speed. His last race was better than it looks since he had to use a lot of energy from post 17.
MATILDA PICOTTE won a group three stakes race against fillies and mares two starts back then beat males in the G2 Challenge Stakes going a similar distance. Her speed puts her in the race and she ran well last year off a similar layoff.
SELECTIONS: 1. AGURI, 10. MYSTERIOUS NIGHT, 4. BATHRAT LEON, 12. WIN GREATEST & 14. MATILDA PICOTTE
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Race 7 Neom Turf Cup
This race starts in front of the finish line and then goes one full lap around the turf course. So far, horses on or near the lead have dominated this course and distance so the riders have to be aggressive going into the first turn.
There must have been a collective groan from the horses pointing for this race when Aidan O’Brien announced that LUXEMBOURG would not contest the G1 Saudi Cup and would enter here instead. Versatile on any ground, he won a group one stakes race at two and two of them last year. His second in the G1 Irish Champion Stakes, behind G1 Breeders’ Cup Turf winner AUGUST RODIN, or in the G1 Hong Kong Cup, behind ROMANTIC WARRIOR who had just won the G1 Cox Plate, would be good enough to handle this group. Probably not 100% fit with a big year planned but he probably doesn’t have to be.
THE FOXES looked like a proper Derby contender when he won the G2 Dante Stakes at a similar distance to today’s then was fifth in the Derby itself. He shipped to America where he was second in the G1 Belmont Derby then finished the year with a fourth in the G1 Juddmonte International Stakes. Four weeks ago, he got a perfect prep for this on a synthetic track and should be fit.
HEARTS CONCERTO has yet to win a group stakes race but he was third in the G1 Japanese Derby and second in the G2 Hai Aoba Sho on firm ground. The son of Heart’s Cry drew poorly in the G1 St. Leger but has to overcome post 12 today. Now four, he might not be as salty as some of his rivals but has a big upside and a perfect prep six weeks ago.
JACK DARCY only had one win last year but it was in the G2 Grand Prix du Deauville on soft turf going longer. He was second in the G2 Prix Dollar at ParisLongchamp then tired in his last out. He draws perfectly for a covered up trip.
SPIRIT DANCER won a group two stakes race in Bahrain two starts back in October then returned a month ago with an even fourth in the G1 Jebel Hatta Stakes in fast time at Meydan when he drew the far outside. Son of FRANKEL will not be short on stamina and he can benefit from the firm going.
SELECTIONS: 9. LUXEMBOUURG, 13. THE FOXES, 6. HEARTS CONCERTO 7. JACK DARCY & 10. SPIRIT DANCER
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Race 8 Red Sea Turf Handicap
With a short run into the first of three turns, the field usually strings out and makes it hard to make up ground late. Once the horses get into their rhythmic stride, there won’t be many moves until the riders decide to take their shot. Horses that are on, or near, the lead at the final turn have a big advantage.
TOWER OF LONDON was a highly regarded 3-year-old colt last year for Aidan O’Brien. The son of Galileo raced evenly in the G1 St. Leger Stakes at Doncaster with its endless homestretch. Up the track on a soft turf course to finish up the season, he now returns fresh for a training yard that wins races all over the world. He is a full-brother to CAPRI who was the champion long distance horse in Great Britain after winning the G1 St. Leger and G1 Irish Derby.
IRON BAROWS is kind of an inconsistent sort but has done his best running as the race were longer. Two years ago, he ran evenly in the G2 Stayers Stakes then after a bunch of poor performances last year, he won it last year by over two lengths. Up the track in the G1 Arima Kinen going shorter against top company, he looks like he fits with these on his best effort.
SKAZINO is a French 8-year-old that might prosper on the firmer turf course here. He was fourth in the G1 Prix du Cadran on heavy ground then came back with a good second in the G1 Prix Royal Oak on similar ground. He has multiple group stakes wins at marathon distances in the past and a prep for this four weeks ago.
BREAKUP has competed in the world’s best turf marathons and gets major class relief here. His last four starts came against group one stakes company and his lone group stakes win came over firm ground going a bit shorter. When you see the great EQUINOX in his past performance lines it makes you take notice so this is a drop in class.
AL NAYYIR has strong early pace and should benefit from firmer ground. The son of the great DUBAWI had a perfect prep race at Meydan going long last month and could be the one to catch if ridden aggressively. Christophe Soumillon will have to use him early to gain position from post 10 then get him to settle.
SELECTIONS: 11. TOWER OF LONDON, 3. IRON BAROWS, 8. SKAZINO, 2. BREAKUP & 5. AL NAYYIR
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Race 9 Saudi Cup
This year’s renewal probably has the deepest and most talented international field assembled yet. Many group one and grade one stakes winners on dirt around today’s distance of 1,800 meters are entered and this should be a wide open race with 200 meters to go. There will be a strong pace and jockey decisions will be critical as to when to make their move. With a long run into the only turn, this is a fair test not clouded by post position bias.
WHITE ABARRIO blossomed in the second half of 2023 with a massive win in the G1 Whitney then an easier-then-it-looked win in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Classic to finish up the season. He has two grade one stakes wins at today’s distance and his form going even longer will be a big benefit in a race that tests stamina. Trainer Rick Dutrow, Jr. won with the first two horses he ever ran overseas in Dubai so he’s proven that he can win away from home.
USHBA TESORO won the G1 Dubai World Cup last year then rallied nicely in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Eight weeks later, he won the G1 Tokyo Daishoten Stakes from off the pace but should benefit from today’s track and distance. Even at the age of seven, he shows no sign of slowing down and should be passing horses on the turn to reach contention.
A Japanese runner won last year’s G1 Saudi World Cup and this year’s contingent looks even stronger. DERMA SOTOGAKE ran better than it looks in the G1 Kentucky Derby then returned six months later with a second in the Breeders’ Cup Classic behind WHITE ABARRIO. He has shown he can run well fresh and has enough pace to run near the front and not falling too far behind.
LEMON POP ships in from Japan off two gigantic wins. His win in the G1 Champions Cup going today’s distance was brilliant. My only concern is how many of his starts came at shorter distances and while he has never been better, today will be a severe test of his stamina.
SAUDI CROWN is a very fast colt that tired badly in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Classic but bounced back with a perfect prep race in the G3 Louisiana Stakes on a dirt track that is similar to today’s. He will try to make all and will likely have the lead somewhere in the homestretch.
SELECTIONS: 14 WHITE ABARRIO, 13 USHBA TESORO, 4 DERMA SOTOGAKE, 7 LEMON POP & 11 SAUDI CROWN
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