The Lead:
The traditional Kentucky Derby lead-in, Churchill Downs' Turf Classic, has been the perfect preliminary since the great Manila christened the race in 1987. From Lure and Paradise Creek to Wise Dan, some of the most memorable grass horses have used this massive stage to show off their ability. It's Race 11 of 14 on the program and part of a two-day Pick 3 that includes the Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby as bookends.
Horseplayers on the 1/ST BET and Xpressbet platforms can enjoy up to a $10 money-back special on 10 key stakes races Friday and Saturday at Churchill Downs, including the Turf Classic and Kentucky Derby, if your win bet finishes second or third. There's also a $50,000 Exacta-Thon promotion split $25,000 each over those two days of racing.
Field Depth:
FAR BRIDGE and PROGRAM TRADING are existing Grade 1 winners. INTEGRATION, I'M VERY BUSY, WEBSLINGER and NAVAL POWER are all Grade 2 winners who also are Grade 1-placed. NEVER SURPRISED is also Grade 1-placed.
Pace:
NEVER SURPRISED should have no problem controlling the front as potential lone speed. Who sits in the pressing flight is less clear, though INTEGRATION, CELLIST and PROGRAM TRADING are candidates who could benefit from what looks like a mild tempo. Deep closers could be disadvantaged.
Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.
#1-INTEGRATION: Star 3YO failed to deliver in his pair of starts since facing elders, but chased a very fast pace in the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup when an even fifth, and then shortened up to a trip too sharp for him in the Grade 1 Maker's Mark Mile. The softer tempo expected here and 9F distance could bring out his best. Shug McGaughey won this race with the great Lure, and jockey Tyler Gaffalione piloted '22 winner Santin.
#2-ANGLOPHILE: Grade 3 Dueling Grounds Derby winner takes on the toughest field of his career while trying to nix a 4-race losing streak. Mid-pack style benefits from positive post position and jockey John Velazquez found glory in this race in 2014 with Wise Dan, though this would be a much bigger surprise. Prefer others.
#3-CELLIST: Won the 12F Louisville over this course in 2022 and comes off an eye-catching win at Turfway in the Kentucky Cup Classic. He's as good as he's ever been at age 6, drawn very well and could be sitting just off the speed with a great trip under Luis Saez. Maybe not as brilliant on turf as some of these over 9F, but he's Mr. Right Now.
#4-FAR BRIDGE: Allowance winner at Gulfstream in his only '24 outing, trainer Christophe Clement looks to add to this one's Grade 1 Belmont Derby credentials in a good form cycle spot. Jose Ortiz has been a good fit on the English Channel colt, and note he was responsible for Yoshida's winning trip in this race in 2018.
#5-PROGRAM TRADING: Trainer Chad Brown looks for a record fourth Turf Classic win with the first of 2 entrants (he'll also send out I'm Very Busy). Unbeaten in 5 starts but for a runner-up to Integration in the Virginia Derby at Colonial in September. The Grade 1 Hollywood Derby winner takes on older stakes horses for the first time and makes his first start i more than 5 months. Should sit a great trip in the first half of the field.
#6-I'M VERY BUSY (pictured above): Rallying runner-up in the Pegasus World Cup Turf to the since-retired star mare Warm Heart, he had a breakthrough performance last out in the Mervin Muniz Memorial at Fair Grounds. Overcame post 13 in New Orleans with an eye-catching, wide move off the far turn. Pace won't be to his favor, but trainer Brown is a 3-time winner of this race as is jockey Irad Ortiz Jr., including 2 of the last 3 years.
#7-WEBSLINGER: Consistent closer delivers his run from the absolute tail of the field and could be compromised here by a lack of heated pace. Won the American Turf over Derby weekend a year ago among a 2-2 local grass record. Javier Castellano has to keep him closer Saturday if he's to win his third Turf Classic.
#8-NEVER SURPRISED: Could be a big 90 minutes for Repole Stable and trainer Todd Pletcher with this front-running threat and Fierceness poised next in Kentucky Derby 150. Pletcher has won this race 3 times, including 2 of the last 3 years. Consistent colt is 10-12 in the exacta and takes them as far as he can under Florent Geroux, an excellent turf speed rider in a new pairing. Irad Ortiz Jr. jumps to ride I'm Very Busy. Distance question as he'll extend beyond to optimum trip.
#9-NEVER EXPLAIN: Late-running winner of the Tampa Bay Stakes most recently, he won last year's Dinner Party on the Preakness undercard and can recall some of that big-crowd experience in the Derby Day melee. Likely to take back under patient rider Joel Rosario, but some of his better efforts have been from a closer-up perch. The latter might serve him better in this race shape.
#10-SIEGE OF BOSTON: Gulfstream and Laurel allowance winner has dropped 5 straight decisions and has given himself too much to do in 3 straight stakes rallies that came up just short. Takes his course with him witnessed by those efforts in Churchill's River City, the Tampa Bay Stakes and GP's Canadian Turf. Steps up in class and doesn't get a preferable pace scenario in front of him.
#11-NAVAL POWER: Morning line favorite will vie for the public sentiment with I'm Very Busy. Sharp second in the Maker's Mark Mile at Keeneland behind Charlie Appleby / Godolphin stablemate Master of the Seas, the reigning Breeders' Cup Mile winner. Post will do him no favors, but veteran Frankie Dettori will put him in the best position he can muster for a colt whose 8: 6-1-0 record speaks for itself. Second-off-the-plane sometimes can be a regression for international runners who remain stateside.
Most Certain Exotics Contender:
I'M VERY BUSY is 8-9 in the superfecta lifetime and razor-sharp right now. Even if the pace doesn't help his late run, expect him to be flying late for a share.
Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
The soft early pace scenario puts 10-1 morning line proposition NEVER SURPRISED in a great spot to last for a share and threaten a heist.
Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$12 trifecta part-wheel INTEGRATION, I'M VERY BUSY, NAVAL POWER with NEVER SURPRISED with INTEGRATION, I'M VERY BUSY, NAVAL POWER ($72). $28 daily double INTEGRATION to FIERCENESS in Kentucky Derby 150.
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