The Lead:
We all know THE Race of the Week is the Kentucky Derby, but we've got you covered wall-to-wall on that one in the 1/ST Kentucky Derby Wager Guide. Do know that this lower-case 't' event wouldn't take a back seat to many betting chances on the calendar. The massive pool sizes on Kentucky Derby Day make the lead-in event to the Run for the Roses some serious handicapping territory in Race 11. A whopping $15 million-plus will be bet on this race singularly, dwarfing any Breeders' Cup grass race. Be sure to mix the Turf Classic into your strategies for the $20,000 Exacta-Thon promotion this weekend from 1/ST BET and Xpressbet.
Field Depth:
SPIRIT OF ST LOUIS and GOLD PHOENIX are the field's Grade 1 winners. INTEGRATION has won at the Grade 2 level and is Grade 1-placed. IDRATHERBEBLESSED also is a Grade 2 winner, while five others have won Grade 3s. INTEGRATION has kept the strongest company lines with SPIRIT OF ST LOUIS right on his heels in that category.
Pace:
Moderate projection here with IDRATHERBEBLESSED the most likely to take the lead. Several prefer to be forward, but not on top, like MERCANTE, GIGANTE, RUNNING BEE and TAKING CANDY. Not expecting them to cook in this 1-1/8 miles test over a middle distance and may play more like a mile where a quick turn of foot is needed in the stretch.
Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.
#1-INTEGRATION: Classy and consistent sort finished fourth in this race from the rail a year ago and appears to be in better form in the return bid. Major threat under Frankie Dettori for Shug McGaughey after facing a buzzsaw miler last out at Keeneland in Carl Spackler.
#2-GOLD PHOENIX: Long-distance sort did win over this trip in the 2023 Eddie Read at Del Mar, but a bit more one-paced now at age 7. Drawn well as jockey Umberto Rispoli looks for the ultimate first Saturday in May double with the Kentucky Derby mount on Journalism on deck.
#3-HIGHWAY ROBBER: Overmatched in only start this year in Dubai, this one seemed to gain a foothold last year when extended to the marathon turf trips. Tough spot on the cut-back on trip for this deep closer who won't get a great pace set-up.
#4-REDISTRICTING: Lightly raced 5-year-old didn't finish against several of these at Fair Grounds in the Muniz and was beaten favorite against easier in both starts a year ago. Underlay price possible vs. 10-1 morning line for Chad Brown-Irad Ortiz Jr., though the rider's presence here does raise some intrigue given his multiple previous mounts on Turf Classic contenders.
#5-IDRATHERBEBLESSED: 86-1 upset winner when wiring the Muniz Memorial at Fair Grounds against several of these, he came back to earth a bit when stretched out most recently in Keeneland's Elkhorn. Back on just 2 weeks' rest and will have to prove his longshot status again.
#6-TAKING CANDY: Consistent sort has a versatile running style that could be effective at this trip, but no doubt faces the toughest competition of his career. Jose Ortiz rides for Cherie DeVaux as brother Irad hops off to pilot Redistricting on Saturday.
#7-RUNNING BEE: Second of 3 Chad Brown trainees in the lineup, he's won 3 of his last 4 and his only loss during that time was a very credible Grade 1 fourth at Keeneland last Fall behind 2 superstar milers. Flavien Prat rode to victory at Tampa last out and this 8-for-16 runner makes first appearance on the Churchill lawn. Threat.
#8-CAMEO PERFORMANCE: Inconsistent colt may be counted on for one of his good efforts as trainer Brendan Walsh is coming off a red-hot Keeneland meet in which he shared the training title. Lasix has been in play with most of his top efforts, however, and won't be available in the Turf Classic to competitors. Irad Ortiz Jr. rode in the Muniz last out when third and he hops to ride Redistricting.
#9-MERCANTE: Upset winner at 13-1 of the Kentucky Cup Classic on synthetic at Turfway, this would be his first turf stakes attempt. Cross-entered Thursday in the Opening Verse Stakes and would fit better in that easier spot.
#10-SPIRIT OF ST LOUIS: New York-bred win machine has scored 10 of 15 starts in a lightly raced career, now aged 6. The most accomplished of the Chad Brown-trained trio entered here, winning the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Turf. Didn't get any pace help whatsoever when an even fourth as the favorite in the Muniz last time. His former NYRA rider Manny Franco regains the mount from the injured Tyler Gaffalione. Respect despite tough post in first local try.
#11-BRILLIANT BERTIE: Deep closer has won all 3 Churchill turf starts and it will be interesting to see if trainer Cherie DeVaux opts for this race or Thursday's easier spot, the Opening Verse Stakes. Did strong work against then-fellow 3-year-olds in 2024, but couldn't make any dent vs. elders in the Muniz last out when compromised by the pace. Prefer others.
#12-GIGANTE: Millionaire has done his best work on the Fair Grounds turf over the years, but was third in November's River City over the Churchill lawn in his only local try. Seems destined for a wide trip given his running style and wide draw unless patient Joel Rosario takes him back off the pace more than his usual trip. Tough spot to be in.
Most Certain Exotics Contender:
INTEGRATION is 11-for-12 in the superfecta lifetime, gets a great draw and can be counted on for a strong effort.
Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
No big prices jump up as must-uses, so perhaps 15-1 ML IDRATHERBEBLESSED could be used to hang on for a share in a field where he upset several of these at Fair Grounds.
Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$75 win INTEGRATION. $25 daily double INTEGRATION to JOURNALISM in Kentucky Derby 151.
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