Race of the Week: The Very One Saturday at Gulfstream

‍The Lead:
One of the biggest days of the Gulfstream Park Championship Meet returns Saturday for Fountain of Youth Day. Kentucky Derby hopefuls look to follow Sovereignty's footsteps in the Race 14 finale. The undercard is loaded with stakes, and the late pick 5 kicks off with the Grade 3 The Very One in Race 10.

Horseplayers with 1/ST BET and Xpressbet be sure to take part in the 2 Million 1/ST Rewards Points Hit & Split on Saturday's late pick 4 (Races 11-14) at Gulfstream. And, there's up to a $10 money-back special in the Fountain of Youth Stakes if your win bet finishes second or third.

​​Field Depth:
Grade 3 winners include VENENCIA and CANDY QUEST. JUST BASKING is a listed stakes winner and Grade 1-placed, while NO SHOW SAMMY JO is a listed stakes winner and Grade 3-placed. VENENCIA and NO SHOW SAMMY JO have kept the consistently strongest schedules.
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Pace:
Limited speed expected over 1-3/8 miles on turf. VENENCIA may be sent forward while FOR FLYING and FANTASY PERFORMER are candidates but not blazers. NO SHOW SAMMY JO has run some good races when hustled and from an outside draw might be asked to show more pace than recent starts. But it's guesswork on this pace map.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

#1-GALLANT GRETA: Closer seems to run her race consistently, just a matter of how it stacks up with the competition. She was a no-match second for No Show Sammy Joe over this course and distance Dec. 24 and then placed too deep last time in the Grade 3 Clement. Jockey Luis Saez piloted Beach Bomb to The Very One stakes success a year ago and assumes a new mount for Mike Maker.

#2-JUST BASKING: Lightly raced 5-year-old has a thin turf resume with one dull effort at Fair Grounds in her only start of 2025. Her 1-turn mile allowance on dirt was a promising, old-school prep by Ian Wilkes and she’s well-drawn under Javier Castellano for this 3-turn journey. Distance should suit and she’s had multiple BRIS late pace figures to brag about up to 10 furlongs. Big change in trip, but not without intrigue.

#3-VENENCIA: Her October victory in Keeneland’s Grade 3 Dowager feels a bit 1-hit wonderish when surrounded by her races around it. She’s changed trainers 4 times since August and hasn’t show much in a couple of Saffie Joseph Jr. appearances. Tyler Gaffalione seeks his second The Very One win in the past 3 years, winning in 2024 aboard R Calli Kim. May be near the lead with a good draw and lack of other pace.

#4-CANDY QUEST: 4-year-old return bid in Tampa’s Grade 3 Endeavor was thwarted by a waltzing pace, but her 104 BRIS late pace figure showed that she came back running to be second. That’s not even her best late fig, getting a 107 in the Dueling Grounds Oaks. Consistent form at shorter trips and Mark Casse’s stakes success nationally has been remarkable of late. Irad Ortiz Jr. is a 3-time The Very One winner (2018, 2019, 2022) and takes the mount for the first time.

#5-FOR FLYING: First of 2 in here for trainer Graham Motion, who won The Very One last year with Beach Bomb. 6-year-old mare has just 15 starts and is 0-8 since winning 4 of her first 7. A return to turf may help, but her recent synthetic form doesn’t inspire confidence.

#6-DONA CLOTA: Former Chilean star melted down in the 2025 Pegasus World Cup Filly & Mare Turf and made only 1 summer start at Saratoga since, finishing fifth in an allowance. She’s on her third trainer in 3 domestic starts, and perhaps Saffie Joseph Jr. has found something Chad Brown and Nacho Correas didn’t. Interesting to see Flavien Prat take the mount.

#7-FANTASY PERFORMER: Synthetic has been her best surface and there’s some concern with this level of competition, though she did best The Very One rival For Flying on New Year’s Day. But that one looks like a longshot here, too.

#8-LOVE SONG: Jockey John Velazquez takes aim at a fifth The Very One title and his first since 2015. That would match Jerry Bailey’s all-time wins record in this race. This impeccably bred Ghostzapper-Music Note filly has come nowhere close to her pedigree’s promise and mustered only 1 stakes start in 11 races to date, a third at Turfway last out. The longer aces have been among her best, but 6: 0-3-0 on turf doesn’t endorse her.

#9-NO SHOW SAMMY JO: 6-year-old has won 6 of 14 in a stop-and-start career but seemed to hold together well through a 7-race 2025 campaign that saw her win 2 listed stakes. Her victory over the course and distance Dec. 24 in the Via Borghese makes her an obvious threat. Trainer Graham Motion seeks a third victory in The Very One and second straight after Beach Bomb a season ago. Wide post and weaker-than-you’d-think late BRIS pace figures do caution against taking a short price.

Most Likely Exotics Contender:
CANDY QUEST is a course winner in a field that's 2-17 combined locally. She's 7-10 in the exacta and 9-10 in the superfecta lifetime and has the best late move in the lineup.

Best Longshot Contender:
JUST BASKING isn't a turf marathoner, but I love the old-school prep path for a trainer in Ian Wilkes who isn't one to placea horse wildly over her head.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$75 win CANDY QUEST. $10 exacta box CANDY QUEST and JUST BASKING ($20). $5 exacta CANDY QUEST over DONA CLOTA.

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