Race of the Week: Saturday's Long Island at Aqueduct

‍The Lead:
Five of 10 races on Saturday's Aqueduct card are of the stakes variety, including a capacity field in the Long Island Stakes. The $250,000 turf marathon for the fillies and mares will be contested at 1-3/8 miles as the final race on the program. The card also boasts the Grade 2 Mother Goose in the race prior, providing an interesting late daily double.

Horseplayers at Xpressbet and 1/ST BET can take advantage of up to a $10 money-back special on win bets in the Long Island if your play finishes second or third. The same offer is available for Aqueduct's Hill Prince and Mother Goose Stakes on Saturday.

​Field Depth:
Grade 2 winner GRAYOSH has the field's top-level score, while BEACH BOMB is a Grade 3 winner and Grade 1-placed. Others Grade 2 or Grade 3-placed here include NO SHOW SAMMY JO, IMMENESITUDE, ALLURING ANGEL, AMBER CASCADE, WAY TO BE MARIE and FUN WITH FLAGS. In terms of strength of schedule, BEACH BOMB and NO SHOW SAMMY JO have kept the toughest company lines consistently.
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Pace:
IMMENSITUDE has gone straight to the front in her last 2 starts and does not appear to have any serious threat to that position on Saturday. She could be lone speed, while BEACH BOMB and FUN WITH FLAGS may lead a cloudy picture of closest pursuers. A deep closer would appear compromised by a projected slow pace.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

#1-NO SHOW SAMMY JO: Nose runner-up as the favorite in this race a year ago, he's the first of 2 Graham Motion trainees that could land the barn a fourth Long Island victory. Got some class relief last time at Laurel and delivered narrowly at short odds, but it's his June effort at the Big A vs. star La Mehana that was her season's best effort. She fits well with this group as a win contender.

#2-GRAYOSH: White-hot jockey Flavien Prat won an Aqueduct record 7 races on Sunday, a day after taking 3 at Del Mar (including a pair of Breeders' Cup heats). Six straight top-5 finishes for consistent filly, but without a win during that span - chasing 2 of these rivals as the favorite in allowance company last out. Prat is 26-for-55 in the exacta (25% wins) in Aqueduct turf stakes over the past 2 years. Must consider this first of potentially 3 Chad Brown starters.

#3-BEACH BOMB: Trainer Graham Motion's second shot here at a fourth Long Island win, this mare was farther off the pace than typical last time out when rallying for second in the Grade 3 Waya. She projects to be much closer to the pace Saturday and should get a beneficial trip saving ground under 3-time Long Island winner Javier Castellano. Player.

#4-BROCKNARDINI: Outstanding 2-year-old of 2023 just hasn't developed into the stakes threat that she hinted. Trainer George Weaver tries blinkers on for the first time in start 13 after a series of flat performances. Can't recommend.

#5-LADY FIREFOOT: 50-1 and 89-1 in similar stakes appearances at Aqueduct in recent starts without making any impact. Last year's Long Island was an eighth-place finish at 59-1 odds. Similar fate.

#6-IMMENSITUDE: First of 2 Bill Mott trainees as he looks to add to his 1998 and 2012 Long Island victories. Likely controlling speed steps up in class off an allowance wire job over the course. She's been competitive in prior matchups when finishing behind No Show Sammy Jo and Beach Bomb, so the pace edge may be enough to turn that narrow tide. Junior Alvarado, who won the 2013 Long Island, rides. Consider.

#7-ALLURING ANGEL: Bill Mott barnmate of Immensitude next door, she's finished behind that friendly foe twice this year at Saratoga. Rallying third in the Grade 3 Waya over this Aqueduct course, three-quarters of a length behind Beach Bomb, puts her in the mix. Kendrick Carmouche won this race in 2015.

#8-AMBER CASCADE: $80,000 claim in May by Mike Maker, we've seen him have much success with turf routers like this in the past. Second-place efforts at Kentucky Downs and Saratoga in stakes company since the claim underscore that history, but this mare disappointed last out in the Grade 2 Rodeo Drive at Santa Anita as the favorite. She was too close to the slow pace that day and didn't have the same fire. Nik Juarez, 2017 Long Island winner, will benefit from returning to her previous patient style.

#9-WAY TO BE MARIE: Well-traveled Rob Atras charge returns to the Big A for the first time since a third in last November's Grade 3 Pebbles. Second-best last out in the Grade 2 Ladies Marathon at Kentucky Downs to loose-leading Stellify. The 11-furlong distance is a question mark, but she handled her first extension at KD with some promise. Jockey Manny Franco has 15 turf stakes wins at Aqueduct the last 2 years (24% win rate). Must consider.

#10-FUN WITH FLAGS: Two-time Long Island winner Chad Brown (2015, 2018) has the final 2 entries in this lineup. This one has lost 7 straight dating back to her French career, which includes 6 losses in as many tries since coming to the US. Stylistically may be able to sit second behind the loose leader if chirped on early by Dylan Davis, who won this race in 2020 and 2021. Distance may suit with a one-paced gallop.

also-eligible #11-ALIMARA: Second Chad Brown trainee was ninth in the Grade 3 Waya and is 2-for-7 since coming to the US from France. No early speed, so if she makes the lineup, she'll need pace help. Prefer others.

Most Likely Exotics Contender:
BEACH BOMB gets a favorable pace set-up, post position and has run 2 strong races over this course in the past.

Best Longshot Contender:
FUN WITH FLAGS could get a very good trip and employ a one-paced style that her pedigree really hints to appreciating this longer trip.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$10 exacta key-box BEACH BOMB with IMMENSITUDE, NO SHOW SAMMY JO, GRAYOSH ($60). $2 trifecta key BEACH BOMB over IMMENSITUDE, FUN WITH FLAGS, GRAYOSH, NO SHOW SAMMY JO, AMBER CASCADE ($40).

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