The Lead:
Named for the famed, 5-time Horse of the Year, the Kelso Stakes has made Saratoga its home since 2023. This Saturday it's part of a July 4 Racing Festival lineup that co-features the Sanford Stakes and the Belmont Oaks Invitational. The Kelso goes as Race 10 of 12 and will be at a mile on turf.
Horseplayers with 1/ST BET and Xpressbet earn 5X 1/ST Rewards Points on all wagers made during the July 4 Racing Festival at Saratoga, Thursday through Sunday.
Field Depth:
This lineup is overqualified for the Grade 3 level. Grade 1 winner WIN FOR THE MONEY is joined by Grade 2 winners THINK BIG, NEAT and ARZAK, the latter Grade 1-placed. DONEGAL MOMENTUM is a Grade 3 winner, who joins MOUNTAIN BEAR as Grade 1-placed contenders.
Pace:
DONEGAL MOMENTUM could be lone speed in a field that doesn't have much other early pace projection. WIN FOR THE MONEY could be more forward than most here, while stretch-out sprinters THINK BIG and ARZAK haven't shown speed going shorter, but might be more inclined around 2 turns.
Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.
#1-NEAT: Grade 2 Hall of Fame Stakes winner over this course last summer, the Rob Atras trainee has lost 5 in a row since. Form further clouded by failing to complete the course in traffic in Pimlico's Dinner Party in May. Reunites with Junior Alvarado, who guided him to 2 stakes wins in 2024.
#2-INTELLECT: French export has 2 minor placings since joining Chad Brown's shedrow, including a runner-up in the Grade 3 Poker as the favorite last out behind Kelso rival Donegal Momentum. Fast pace or slow, he hasn't finished with as much flair as needed since stretching out around 2 turns and was a 1-turn specialist overseas. Good draw under Flavien Prat for this, however.
#3-THINK BIG: All 5 turf starts have come in sprints, winning 4 of those, for trainer Mike Stidham. Hot-riding Jose Ortiz is coming off a huge Churchill Downs title-winning meet. Broke poorly only Saratoga try, but didn't do anything thereafter in the Grade 1 Jaipur, leaving some concern about course affinity. Failed around 2 turns on dirt at Keeneland in only such non-sprint try.
#4-DONEGAL MOMENTUM: Wire-to-wire winner of the Poker Stakes (pictured) over this course and distance June 5 during the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival, he gets another gift-wrapped potential pace scenario. Jockey Javier Castellano has been one of the best front-end turf riders in the game for decades and pilots a super-consistent animal in all his turf starts. Catch him to win.
#5-NANTASKET BEACH: Red-hot former claimer has won 4 of his last 5 starts, 3 of 4 since claimed by Lauren Robson. Held form from Gulfstream to Churchill Downs and will test the Saratoga lawn for the first time Saturday. Julien Leparoux returns in the saddle aboard this 6-year-old.
#6-MOUNTAIN BEAR: Former Aidan O'Brien charge makes his second start of 2025 and second for trainer Wesley Ward after finishing second to Kelso rival Nantasket Beach in a Churchill allowance May 25. Tough draw that day from 11-hole and classy colt has placings in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf, Turf Mile at Keeneland and multiple group stakes in the UK.
#7-ARZAK: Top-class turf sprinter has lost 8 straight and likely this stretch out in distance is an admission that he has lost a step at age 7. His Saratoga form hasn't been poor, but a 1-for-6 local record indicates it's not his favorite surface either. Irad Ortiz Jr. rides and did guide him to his last victory, but that was the April 2024 Shakertown at Keeneland.
#8-WIN FOR THE MONEY: 13-1 upset winner of last year's Grade 1 Woodbine Mile likely using this race as a prep for that event coming up in September. The Kelso marks his first try on the Saratoga grass for trainer Mark Casse and his first start since tiring late in the 9-furlong Pegasus World Cup Turf at Gulfstream to close January. Three-week gap in the workout tab in June might put him a race or 2 away from his best.
MAIN TRACK ONLY ENTRANTS: WYNSTOCK, YO DADDY, BANK FRENZY and GAME WARDEN compete only if this races comes off the grass. It's difficult early to project who might be left in the lineup in that situation. YO DADDY and BANK FRENZY interest most looking at the brilliance needed from a dirt miler if called upon.
Most Likely Exotics Contender:
DONEGAL MOMENTUM is 2-for-2 over a course in which the rest of the field is 2-for-9 combined and has a pace advantage. Even if he gets run down late, hard to imagine him off the ticket.
Best Longshot Contender:
NANTASKET BEACH defeated Mountain Bear last out and probably goes a more attractive price once again based on connections.
Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$100 win DONEGAL MOMENTUM.
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