Race of the Week: Saturday's Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks

‍The Lead:
Florida Derby Day stacks the Gulfstream Park lineup with 10 stakes on a 14-race card that is anchored by the $1 million main event. First post is 11:30 am ET with the Grade 1 Florida Derby set for 6:42 pm ET. The supporting stakes include turf and dirt offerings across multiple racing divisions, but it's the 3-year-old fillies we'll highlight in the Race 9 Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks. This $250,000 contest over 1-1/16 miles kicks off the Rainbow 6 at approximately 3:31 pm ET.

​Field Depth:
Grade 2 winner THE QUEENS M G has the field's signature victory, while listed stakes winners include PARADISE CITY, WHATINTHELITERAL and FIVE G, the latter also Grade 3-placed. THE QUEENS M G consistently has kept the toughest strength of schedule.
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Pace:
THE QUEENS M G, FIVE G and ANNA'S PROMISE figure to be prominent early in a race what typically favors early speed at Gulfstream. The 1-1/16 miles races have a short run into the clubhouse turn and end at the sixteenth-pole finish line.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

#1-PARADISE CITY: First of 3 Saffie Joseph Jr. trainees was no match for rival Five G when those two met in the Cash Run Stakes on New Year's Day, but since was a dominant allowance winner over this same track and distance. With Lasix last time (not eligible to use it Saturday), she earned a big 95 BRIS late pace figure and figures to be firing late.

#2-EARLY ON: Virginia Oaks runner-up for trainer Joseph is being asked back on 2 weeks' rest following a roadtrip to Colonial Downs. Her only victory in 5 starts did come over this track and distance in maiden company last month. Dylan Davis rode in that local win but opts for Cassiar in the Oaks. Would not be surprised to see her drop out of the field, but her 97 and 100 BRIS late pace figures in her last 2 could make her an exotics threat.

#3-THE QUEENS M G: WIn-early freshman season started with a Keeneland victory in April before being privately sold. She parlayed that into a pair of Saratoga summer stakes wins and those types often don't progress as 3-year-olds. Not with this Joseph trainee, who was a solid third in the Grade 3 Forward Gal before winning the Grade 2 Davona Dale on March 1. She's won 4 of 8 and will try a 2-turn test for the first time. Pedigree suggests it's within her scope and top jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. returns. Should be faster early than the stablemates insider her and get a rail run.

#4-FIVE G: Versatile Vekoma filly has won around 2 turns on turf, 1 turn on dirt and finished second in the Grade 3 Honeybee at Oaklawn around 2 turns on dirt. Her Cash Run Stakes win at Gulfstream was a dominant, 9-length score over Paradise City et al. Riders John Velazquez (riding the Arkansas Derby today at Oaklawn) and Irad Ortiz Jr. (opting here for The Queens M G) have departed, leaving Tyler Gaffalione with the call for George Weaver.

#5-WHATINTHELITERAL: Early developer like The Queens M G last year, winning the Astoria at Saratoga during the Belmont Stakes Festival, but she failed to progress and lost her last 5 starts of the year to finish 1-for-8. Difficult comeback spot off a November break, but she has 6 workouts right on cue for the bid.

#6-CASSIAR: Least experienced Oaks entrant won her debut Feb. 8 at Tampa Bay Downs in highly professional style. Got a tough trip and education from post 10 of 10 in that sprint and now will be asked to stretch out. Sire City of Light won the Pegasus World Cup over 9 furlongs locally and there's a lot of stamina on the damside. Trainer Shug McGaughey typically is quite patient, so this is a bold move that should be respected. Dylan Davis rides.

#7-ANNA'S PROMISE: After dropping the first 5 decisions of her career, this daughter of Promises Fulfilled has won 2 straight. Trainer Carlos David claimed her for $50,000 in February and will put her into a tough stakes spot for the first time. Luis Saez rode to her local allowance score last time over the Oaks distance and returns. She's 2-2 with Lasix, but won't be able to use the medication by rule on Saturday.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
FIVE G is proven around 2 turns, over the track and against classier types than many of these.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
PARADISE CITY is one of a few here to run close to the same races with Lasix as without and should save every inch from the rail at 10-1 morning line.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$50 exacta FIVE G over CASSIAR. $50 daily double FIVE G to #8 BUNRATTY MANOR in Race 10.