Race of the Week: Saturday's Ginger Brew at Gulfstream Park

‍The Lead:
Newly turned 3-year-olds are in the spotlight Saturday at Gulfstream Park with the co-featured Mucho Macho Man Stakes kicking off the Florida Derby series and the Ginger Brew Stakes for filly turf milers. They go as Races 10-11, respectively, to wrap the card and both are part of the Xpressbet Beat the Host season kickoff contest. Outplay Gulfstream announcer Pete Aiello for your share of weekly and seasonal prizes.

​Field Depth:
SPECIAL ADVISOR and CIVETTA are stakes winners, the latter also Grade 3-placed. NITROGEN is Grade 1-placed and CORRETO is Grade 2-placed. CORRETO, CIVETTA and NITROGEN have kept the strongest company lines.
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Pace:
The pace looks modest, perhaps led by SMILE PO and GOOD LONG CRY on the far inside and outside, which sometimes can turn up the heat in a battle for position. CIVETTA and NITROGEN also figure to be in the first flight. No major pace advantages projected on paper.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

#1-SMILE PO: Lost her weapon when bumped at the start of the Wait a While and never got involved. Blazing drill for this indicates speed if she stays in the lineup; cross-entered in a local Sunday allowance on Tapeta.

#2-LOVE CERVERE: November debut sprint maiden winner gets tested for class and distance for reputable connections of Christophe Clement and Tyler Gaffalione. Half-brother won Woodbine's Grey around 2 turns off a light resume, so it's in the genes for this Into Mischief filly.

#3-FIXIN TO BEE: Draw a line through the Golden Rod on dirt and this turf-bred daughter of Mshawish is a real bounce-back candidate. Keeneland turf mile maiden break accomplished without any pace help up front. Should get a good trip with this post and Luis Saez riding well.

#4-CORRETO: Kentucky Downs debut winner was a solid third in the Grade 2 Ms. Grillo and not embarrassed when beaten 5 lengths in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. Full-sister to $1.3 million-earning turfer Spooky Channel should be heard from late.

#5-HELLO HELLO HELLO: Two-time Tapeta winner is cross-entered Sunday in a synthetic allowance and may fit better there. No threat when last seen in October in the Our Dear Peggy over this turf course and distance.

#6-DISCO STAR: New York-bred sprinter leaves the state-bred ranks, steps up off a maiden win and stretches out for the first time. That's a lot of firsts for the Mark Casse trainee, who returns her October winning rider Dylan Davis.

#7-SPECIAL AVIATOR: Unbeaten winner of the Our Dear Peggy Stakes is 2-for-2 (both routes). Rohan Crichton trainee hasn't run particularly fast, but got no pace help last time and just willed herself home.

#8-CIVETTA: Godolphin filly won the Wait a While at 4-5 odds and should vie for favoritism again under Irad Ortiz Jr. This is a tougher spot, but she's run 4 rock-solid races in as many tries for trainer Brendan Walsh.

#9-FORWARD DEPLOYED: $800,000 War Front purchase took 3 tries to break her maiden, graduating over this turf course December 8 at 12-1 odds. Don't see many Chad Brown trainees pay that kind of price. Dam Classic Fit was a solid stakes filly on dirt.

#10-NITROGEN: Immune to public opinion, she was third in the Grade 1 Natalma at 41-1 and third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf at 49-1. But expect a much shorter price on the Mark Casse trained daughter of Medaglia d'Oro. Showed a new dimension rallying at Del Mar after a troubled start, a feather in her cap of versatility.

#11-WINNING STREEP: 33-1 neck runner-up to Civetta in the Wait A While on November 28 when able to save ground early. Tougher trip projected from this post, but won from the 10-hole 2 starts back under return pilot Joe Bravo. Not without a chance.

#12-GOOD LONG CRY: John Velazquez likely has to use early gas from post 12, but this filly is my classic "nibbler breaks out" candidate. After 4 straight close losses, broke her maiden by 6-1/4 lengths and these kind often bounce back to repeat. The wide draw might help the price if you believe.

(AE) #13-LA GIOCONDA: Romping dirt sprint debut winner would add more pace to the mix if she draws into the field and opts to run. She's also cross-entered in a Sunday allowance like a few others in this lineup. Don't like first-time routers with speed from the widest draw if she plays here Saturday. Too often they don't handle that first bend.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
CIVETTA is 4-for-4 in the superfecta, including a local turf stakes win, and doesn't have any outward flaws.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
SPECIAL AVIATOR was 10-1 in the Our Dear Peggy when pulling the upset and likely will remain an overlay after modest speed figures and connections that won't draw extra money.​

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$70 win GOOD LONG CRY. $5 exacta key-box GOOD LONG CRY with CIVETTA, NITROGEN and CORRETO ($30).