The Lead:
Horse racing's most noted alumnus of the transfer portal, the Arlington Million, returns Saturday to Colonial Downs for a third edition since moving to Virginia. The longtime Chicago staple joins its Arlington family with the Secretariat Stakes and Beverly D., to be run in succession from Races 9-11. The Million competes with the same-day Sword Dancer at Saratoga for horsepower and that rival race specifically plucked defending Arlington Million winner Nations Pride. But the Million lured 2024 Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan (pictured) to provide instant intrigue for his turf debut.
Horseplayers with 1/ST BET and Xpressbet be sure to take advantage of the 2 Million 1/ST Rewards Points Hit & Split promotion on Saturday at Colonial for the late pick 4 (Races 9-12).
Field Depth:
MYSTIK DAN is the lone Grade 1 winner in the lineup, while Grade 2 winners include GRAND SONATA and INTEGRATION, the latter also Grade 1-placed. RUNAWAY STORM and CAIRO are Grade / Group 3 winners, with CAIRO also Group 1-placed. This is a difficult read on class given MYSTIK DAN's dirt company lines and how that translates to turf, while CAIRO's international running lines rate strongest among the turfers.
Pace:
RUNAWAY STORM has made the front in 5 of his last 7 starts and likely will be sent to the engine while stretching out in distance. TIME SONG, MYSTIK DAN and VESTING should be in closest pursuit and the pace looks moderate for 1-1/4 miles on turf.
Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.
#1-MYSTIK DAN: His last 3 starts all have been highly promising and productive and note Stephen Foster runner-up Sierra Leone returned last week to win the Grade 1 Whitney. Mystik Dan reached out decently in his only grass workout (as seen at 1st.tv), and his dam Ma'am did win on the lawn at Ellis Park. Sire Goldencents hasn't had a ton of turfers, but multiple Grade 1 winner Going to Vegas is among those. We know his impeccable wet-track form, which often translates to turf, and his ability to cut the corner and hug the rail under Brian Hernandez Jr. could play effectively on grass. There's a lot to be optimistic about even if this race placement seems forced for a first turf try. Fortunately, it didn't come up historically tough. Could be the first Kentucky Derby alum since Mecke (1995-'96) to win the Arlington Million.
#2-TIME SONG: Dropped 8 straight since breaking his maiden in April 2024, but this member of Jonathan Thomas' west coast string has been improved of late. Second in the 1-3/4 miles San Juan Capistrano to close the Santa Anita season, we'll see how sharp Luis Saez wants him on the cutback in distance given an post draw inside the primary other speed, Runaway Storm. Respect the connections, but prefer others when it comes time to quicken late.
#3-VESTING: Trainer Mike Maker has gotten some improvement of late out of this former Chad Brown trainee and that's given him the option to take a graded stakes shot while in form. Drawn between 2 potential speed horses could be a tough spot for jockey Javier Castellano, but note that rider came here in 2023 and took down both the Secretariat and Beverly D. on this card (and was second in last year's Beverly D. as well). Flat late performances are repeated in his running lines, so a no lead, no pass scenario seems most likely.
#4-RUNAWAY STORM: The 2023 Virgina Derby pacesetter and third-place finisher returns to the local scene off a series of races at Horseshoe Indianapolis. Trainer Ethan West has had a precision-strike kind of meet at Colonial Downs and his barn notably won Sunday's West Virginia Derby at Mountaineer. The 10-furlong trip is the longest of this one's career and by past performances appears beyond his best ... especially if there's some pace pressure.
#5-CAIRO: X-factor from Newmarket exits a surprising third in the Group 1 Queen Anne at Royal Ascot at 100-1 odds and embarks on what's supposed to be a 2-race US sojourn (Kentucky Downs' Mint Millions slated next). Trainer Alice Haynes' second US starter, having finished off the board at Keeneland in the 2022 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint. Colonial Downs leading jockey the past 2 seasons, Ben Curtis, provides an excellent pairing. Competitive in Dubai and the UK, it's notable that this horse is 0-16 since starting 3-5 to open his career. Respect, but I'd be price sensitive and demand something closer to 5-1 if you can find it. Otherwise, you let him beat you.
#6-FORT WASHINGTON: Pimlico's Grade 3 Dinner Party Stakes winner on Preakness Day, he hasn't really fired a dud in more than a year. Best BRIS Late Pace Figures in the field and would benefit from a strong early tempo if it evolves. Trainer Shug McGaughey brought this one to Colonial in 2023 when third in an allowance at 6-5 odds and he'll have to do better than that. But the form is good and he got zero pace help last time in the Wise Dan when fourth. Regular rider Junior Alvardo is having a dream season with Sovereignty and could add another Grade 1. Contender.
#7-GRAND SONATA: 6-year-old has won just 1 of his last 15 races and 1 of his last 22 stakes attempts, so you'll have to be forgiving if backing. Runner-up in Monmouth's Grade 2 United Nations last out was a move in the right direction, but he's been far more off than on over the past year. Cross-entered in the Grade 1 Sword Dancer at Saratoga for trainer Todd Pletcher. Prefer others.
#8-INTEGRATION: The 8-5 morning line favorite doesn't appear to have any decided edges on the field other than his proven affinity for the Colonial course. He's 4: 3-1-0 locally, while the rest are a mere 2: 0-0-2 in limited showings. His only local loss was a good second in the 2024 Arlington Million. Jockey John Velazquez raided Colonial last summer to win the Secretariat aboard Trikari on this same card and just missed aboard Integration last time out when a head runner-up in the Grade 1 Manhattan. His nemisis that day, Deterministic, returned to win last week's Grade 1 Fourstardave at Saratoga. He's the horse to beat, but at 1-for-his-last-7 at average odds of just 5-2, you don't have to concede if you find better options.
Most Likely Exotics Contender:
INTEGRATION is 4-for-4 in the exacta at Colonial and was in the frame in last year's Arlington Million when second.
Best Longshot Contender:
VESTING could be part of the early mix and hold for a share at double-digit odds while in the best form of his career and for a jockey who has had success in limited Colonial attempts.
Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$40 exacta MYSTIK DAN over FORT WASHINGTON, INTEGRATION ($80). $20 exacta MYSTIK DAN over CAIRO.
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