The Lead:
We're coming off a $410 score in this space last week in Santa Anita's Honeymoon Stakes, so let's keep it rolling.
The Belmont Stakes Festival runs Thursday through Sunday at Saratoga, and all eyes will be on Saturday's close to the Triple Crown series. But a spectacular, 9-stakes lineup on that day also includes what easily could be considered the race of the year so far in the Breeders' Cup Distaff division with the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps. The 1-1/8 miles test goes as Race 7 of 14 on Belmont Stakes Day and should provide one heck of a halftime show.
Field Depth:
Grade 1 winners IDIOMATIC (pictured above), PRETTY MISCHIEVOUS and RANDOMIZED bring elite-level resumes. SOUL OF THE SEA is a Grade 2 winner, while multiple Grade 3 winner RAGING SEA is Grade 1-placed. What a select lineup from 6 entrants.
Pace:
Rail-drawn RANDOMIZED has made the early lead in 7 of 8 starts and knows just one way to go. TIZZY IN THE SKY and IDIOMATIC will be in very close pursuit and could result in a hot pace despite the smaller field size.
Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.
#1-RANDOMIZED: First of 2 Chad Brown trainees in the field in what could be a huge week for the conditioner of Belmont Stakes favorite Sierra Leone. Second start since nearly wiring the Breeders' Cup Distaff, coming up a half-length short vs. Idiomatic in that neutral site matchup at Santa Anita. Disappointing when second in her Grade 2 Ruffian comeback against Soul of an Angel and will take them as far as she can on the front in search of a third career Saratoga stakes score (won '23 Wilton, Grade 1 Alabama).
#2-TIZZY IN THE SKY: Todd Pletcher rep wired the Top Flight at Aqueduct by 9 lengths last time, but will find the pace scenario here as difficult as it gets in terms of quality speed. All 4 career wins have come wire-to-wire and speed jockey Kendrick Carmouche famously prefers the front. He's a longshot to outlast the speed in this one.
#3-PRETTY MISCHIEVOUS: The 2023 Kentucky Oaks, Acorn and Test winner finished a no-match third behind Idiomatic in the '24 return race for both 5 weeks ago in Churchill's La Troienne. She had run out 10 consecutive races in her form cycle prior to the well-earned break from September through May and figures to improve in her second start back for trainer Brendan Walsh. He's a fantastic 25% winner "2OL" in these kind of form cycle moves. Still has something to prove against older fillies/mares, but you're going to see a much better effort than last time.
#4-SOUL OF AN ANGEL: South Florida-based mare makes her second spin for trainer Saffie Joseph Jr., and her first road trip to New York was a rallying success in the Grade 2 Ruffian over Randomized. Pedigree suspect to have the same kick over 1-1/8 miles that she showed in that 1-turn mile at Aqueduct, though it's impossible to overlook the huge leap forward she made for Joseph after modest stakes and allowance career previously. Irad Ortiz Jr. rides, which never hurts, but often leads to an underlay price ... especially for a mare 24-1 in victory last time out.
#5-IDIOMATIC: Here 9: 8-0-1 season a year ago laid legitimate claim to Horse of the Year consideration and made her an obvious choice for Champion Older Mare. She's won from the lead, pressing and as far back as fifth, so she doesn't need a particular race set-up. Likely sits second/third here under regular rider Florent Geroux, who is a perfect 6-for-6 on her back in the current win streak. Training very well since the La Troienne and did win the Personal Ensign easily over this track and distance last summer.
#6-RAGING SEA: Book-ends the field for trainer Chad Brown and provides a late threat to the rail speedster Randomized. Returned from her light, 4-race sophomore season with an eye-catching win in Keeneland's Grade 3 Doubledogdare, a race that has since seen third-place finisher Scylla has come back to win twice at Churchill, including a graded stakes last weekend. Curlin filly broke her maiden here in 2022 and is a pure, 9-furlong type who gets a great pace set-up.
Most Certain Exotics Contender:
IDIOMATIC has been nearly automatic and handles wet or dry conditions.
Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
No large prices expected to factor in the exacta, whiles tris and supers not recommended.
Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$50 Daily Doubles IDIOMATIC with VALENTINE CANDY and NASH in the Race 8 Woody Stephens ($100).
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