The Belmont Stakes Festival includes a pair of 2-day special wagers connecting Friday and Saturday stakes at Saratoga. The 2-day all-turf pick 5 and the 2-day all-dirt pick 6 add to a stuffed wagering menu. Because I’m not an everyday NYRA player – due to an inability to be successful there over the years on several attempts at the daily product – these additional stakes-only wagers offer a lot of appeal to my handicapping interests and abilities. For more Belmont Stakes coverage, access the free 1/ST Belmont Stakes Wager Guide.
Let’s get to work.
2-Day All-Turf Pick 5 (50-cent minimum, 15% takeout)
Friday Saratoga Race 9: Wonder Again Stakes
#8 Lion Lake is solidly favored at 7-5 morning line, but has a history of burning money and picks up weight while not having that major of an advantage to give away. She’s making her sixth straight start in her form cycle and that doesn’t often provide any major improvement. I’ll swing against her to start the sequence and go with #2 Fitz Right and #5 Time to Dream. The former is moving the right direction and gets tested for more class while the latter was a dynamo over this course last year and perhaps can reawaken with a trip to her favored course.
Friday Saratoga Race 11: New York Stakes
At 10-1 morning line, sign me up for #6 Cankoura at anywhere near that price. The French Oaks third-place finisher last year makes her second start off the vacation and first trip stateside. Everything about her screams this 1-3/16 miles trip against a modest American group. #9 Gezora changes barns (to Bill Mott) after a public breakup between owner Peter Brant and former trainer Chad Brown. There’s no doubt the reigning Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf winner can bounce back from her defeat on Derby Day when considering her prior French form.
Saturday Saratoga Race 7: Just A Game Stakes
The ledger for #3 Segesta (7-5 morning line favorite) looks outstanding historically, but my evaluation of the First Lady, Matriarch and Jenny Wiley is that those 3 Grade 1 races didn’t come up nearly as strong as some recent years. While she could just be in super form and ready to add another, her sixth-place effort in this race last year in her only start at the Spa raises additional concern. Let’s try to topple Segesta with #4 Mandanaba and her Chad Brown stablemate #2 Sandtrap. The French invader Mandanaba kept exceptional company lines oversees and got a perfect tune-up for her 4-year-old debut at Longchamp. Sandtrap could be next in line of a long series of Lope de Vega offspring to become stars under Chad Brown’s care. #8 Deep Satin is 12-1 morning line for the Kentucky Derby combo of Cherie DeVaux and Jose Ortiz and this filly has run her best races at Saratoga. Perhaps she wakes up at a price as we’ve seen this barn have some big undercards on major racedays.
Saturday Saratoga Race 9: Jaipur Stakes
Last year’s 1-2 Jaipur finishers, #6 Ag Bullet and #10 My Boy Prince, absolutely make for logical considerations here and are in the hunt. Same goes for #5 Reef Runner, who has developed into a turf sprint ace for David Fawkes and takes his game anywhere he goes. But don’t sleep on 15-1 morning line longshot #1 Governor Sam for an elite turf sprint trainer in George Waever and an elite turf sprint jockey in Paco Lopez. Speed, rail and stellar marks over the course and distance are all in his favor. Let’s roll 4-deep here and get some intra-race action in the win and exotics with Governor Sam.
Saturday Saratoga Race 12: Manhattan Stakes
The mile and three-sixteenths distance of the Grade 1 Manhattan will be a huge test for the American players here, many of whom have starred at shorter trips and / or failed to come home with much zest late in previous tries. That conspires to make the internationally accomplished #6 Bright Picture an absolute standout. French legend Andre Fabre doesn’t bring many to America these days, but he ships this Group 2 winner and Group 1 recent runner-up into a great situation at a distance right in his sweet spot. Pair him with local ace stakes pilot Flavien Prat and there’s not even the overseas rider concerns to mount.
The Ticket: All-Turf Pick 5
2,5 with 6,9 with 4,2,8 with 1,10,6,5 with 6 = $24 for 50 cents
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2-Day All-Dirt Pick 6 (20-cent minimum, 15% takeout)
Friday Saratoga Race 10: Acorn Stakes
A compact field of 5 makes for weak in-race betting of the 1-1/8 miles Acorn as 4 Kentucky Oaks alumnae re-match. #5 Always a Runner was our top-pick winner in Louisville and the lightly raced filly has yet to be beaten. But if she takes any flattening or regression in form, #3 Meaning has proven her California talent on the road and could sit a dynamite, first-over trip behind the race’s likely longshot leader #4 Maximum Offer. I’ll go 2-deep here with the top-2 morning line choices.
Friday Saratoga Race 12: Phipps Stakes
Morning-line favorite #5 Nitrogen’s best races have been at Saratoga, but I’m not sure the chalk made any significant leap forward from age 3 to 4 this winter/spring at Oaklawn. I’ll try to beat her with #1 Fully Subscribed and #3 Alpine Princess. There’s not a lot of pace in this race and 9-furlong heats at the Spa start near the clubhouse turn, giving inside pace an edge. I’m anticipating Flavien Prat and Irad Ortiz Jr. on these couple of chances drawn inside to take advantage.
Saturday Saratoga Race 8: True North Stakes
Like we’ll see in the Met Mile, a couple of standout horses at the head of the toteboard will be difficult to separate and even more difficult to topple. #3 Bentornato clearly would be the horse to beat here at 6 furlongs; #6 Book’em Danno likely owns the True North if at 7 furlongs. That they’ll clash over 6-1/2 furlongs makes this such an interesting matchup. Bentornato flashes early, Book’em Danno late. No shame in splitting this ticket. If you wanted to add a price consideration #8 Illuminaire (10-1 ML) highly impressed me at Keeneland and should love the distance, but gets the ultimate class test against the nation’s 2 best sprinters. I think he’s worth the upside in price projection if he pulls it off.
Saturday Saratoga Race 10: Woody Stephens Stakes
Similar to the featured Belmont Stakes, quality options abound in this 3-year-old showcase for sprinters. #6 Crude Velocity is the single-or-spread option here, but you’re settling for 8-5 morning line if taking the former approach and I don’t see big prices abounding throughout this sequence. My approach will be to get some coverage even against this standout performer because the alternatives are high-quality and you’re not just going fishing for something that’s not there. #2 Obliteration, #7 Englishman, #8 Civil Liberty, #1 Gilded Bandit, #5 Solitude Dude and #3 Six Speed also are in play and can help drive up the payouts (listed in order of preference).
Saturday Saratoga Race 11: Metropolitan Handicap
A strong either-or with #1 Nysos and #7 Journalism gets you most of the way home in terms of confidence in the Met Mile. You get one who should be near the pace and one as the strongest finisher. Those complimentary running styles make for a good 2-deep, even if accepting the fact that they’re favorites. A strong lean one way or the other certainly helps your budget spend elsewhere or double the ticket strength, and I’d go with Journalism if having to make that differentiation.
Saturday Saratoga Race 13: Belmont Stakes
In what looks like a classic, single-or-spread situation, the Belmont Stakes is at least 5-deep with legitimate win contenders that don’t offer a lot of separation. I’ll take the road less traveled and single my top pick, #7 Commandment (pictured), who could be between 6-1 and 10-1 odds. He was given a panicked ride in the Kentucky Derby and now switches to John Velazquez, Saratoga’s all-time leading jockey with more than 1,000 local wins. He’s not the most likely winner in the sequence but offers me the most value to spread in other legs and make the best score if I’m right.
The Ticket: All-Dirt Pick 6
5,3 with 1,3 with 3,6,8 with 6,2,7,8,1,5,3 with 7,1 with 7 = $33.60 for 20 cents
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