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wager guide

belmont stakes

SAT//jun8 2024

saratoga race course

saratoga springs, ny

1/st bet // xpressbet

wager guide

belmont STAKES

sat/jun8 2024

saratoga race course

saratoga springs, ny

belmont stakes wager guide

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belmont stakes

NEED-TO-KNOW

HOST SITE:
SARATOGA // SARATOGA SPRINGS, NY
BELMONT STAKES DATE:
SATURDAY, JUNE 8, 2024
FESTIVAL DATES:
THURSDAY, JUNE 6 - SUNDAY, JUNE 9, 2024
FIRST RACE POST TIME:
10:45AM ET
BELMONT STAKES POST TIME:
6:41PM ET
WATCH FREE AND WAGER:
ALL RACES ON 1/ST BET APP // XPRESSBET.COM
TELEVISION:
FOX 4:00 - 7:30PM ET; FS1 11:00 AM - 4:00PM ET
WAGERING NOTES:
scott shapiro's: belmont festival special wager rankings
Belmont Stakes Challenge Handicapping Tournament (Sat/Xpressbet)

BELMONT sTAKES lineup (ALL TIMES ET)

G2 TRUE NORTH S.
$350K
R4
12:31PM
6 1/2 FUR
G3 POKER S.
$350K
R5
1:11PM
1 MI (T)
G2 SUBURBAN S.
$350K
R6
1:51PM
1 1/4 MI
G1 OGDEN PHIPPS S. (Race of the week)
$500K
R7
2:36PM
1 1/8 MI
G1 WOODY STEPHENS S.
$500K
R8
3:22PM
7 FUR
G1 JAIPUR S.
$500K
R9
4:08PM
5 1/2 FUR (T)
G1 METROPOLITAN (met mile)
$1M
R10
4:52PM
1 MI
G1 MANHATTAN
$1M
R11
5:36PM
1 3/16 MI (T)
$2M
R12
6:41PM
1 1/4 M

meet the

BELMONT STAKES

contenders

SEIZE THE GREY
1
STATS →
SEIZE THE GREY
M/L
8-1
Career Record:
10: 4-0-3
Career Earnings:
$1,819,938
Past 5 Races:
1-1-7-3-1
Jockey:
Jaime Torres
Trainer:
D. Wayne Lukas
Color/Age:
Gray or Roan / 3yo
Pedigree:
Arrogate-Smart Shopping

Preakness winner has made meteoric rise in his last 2 starts, upsetting the Pat Day Mile on Kentucky Derby Day at Churchill Downs. Belmont would be third start in 5 weeks. 88-year-old trainer D. Wayne Lukas has won 15 Triple Crown races. Hall of Fame sire Arrogate missed the '16 Triple Crown, but won the Travers/Breeders' Cup Classic.

RESILIENCE
2
STATS →
RESILIENCE
M/L
10-1
Career Record:
7: 2-1-1
Career Earnings:
$494,630
Past 5 Races:
6-1-4-1-3
Jockey:
Junior Alvarado
Trainer:
Bill Mott
Color/Age:
Bay / 3yo
Pedigree:
Into Mischief-Meadowsweet

Wood Memorial winner finished 6th in the Kentucky Derby after momentarily taking the lead at the top of the stretch. Fourth-place effort in the Risen Star at Fair Grounds behind Sierra Leone. Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott won the 2010 Belmont with Drosselmeyer.

MYSTIK DAN
3
STATS →
MYSTIK DAN
M/L
5-1
Career Record:
8: 3-2-1
Career Earnings:
$4,141,360
Past 5 Races:
2-1-3-1-5
Jockey:
Brian Hernandez Jr.
Trainer:
Kenny McPeek
Color/Age:
Bay / 3yo
Pedigree:
Goldencents-Ma'am

Kentucky Derby winner and Preakness runner-up could stake his claim to the 3-year-old championship with a Belmont Stakes victory. Son of 2-time Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile winner Goldencents. Trainer McPeek won the 2002 Belmont with Sarava.

THE WINE STEWARD
4
STATS →
THE WINE STEWARD
M/L
15-1
Career Record:
6: 3-3-0
Career Earnings:
$467,260
Past 5 Races:
2-2-2-1-1
Jockey:
Manny Franco
Trainer:
Mike Maker
Color/Age:
Bay / 3yo
Pedigree:
Vino Rosso-Call to Service

Runner-up in both starts this year, the Lexington at Keeneland and the Peter Pan at Aqueduct. Won Saratoga's Funny Cide Stakes at age 2 and returns to the scene of his most recent stakes victory.

ANTIQUARIAN
5
STATS →
ANTIQUARIAN
M/L
12-1
Career Record:
4: 2-1-0
Career Earnings:
$173,000
Past 5 Races:
1-6-1-2
Jockey:
John Velazquez
Trainer:
Todd Pletcher
Color/Age:
Chestnut / 3yo
Pedigree:
Preservationist-Lifetime Memory

Peter Pan Stakes winner will be making his Triple Crown series debut for 4-time Belmont Stakes-winning trainer Todd Pletcher. The barn also won the 2007 Belmont with a TC unveiling by the filly Rags to Riches.

DORNOCH
6
STATS →
DORNOCH
M/L
15-1
Career Record:
7: 3-2-0
Career Earnings:
$552,275
Past 5 Races:
10-4-1-1-1
Jockey:
Luis Saez
Trainer:
Danny Gargan
Color/Age:
Bay / 3yo
Pedigree:
Good Magic-Puca

Full-brother to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage finished 10th in his bid to follow up in his big bro's success in Louisville. Winner of Aqueduct's Remsen and Gulfstream's Fountain of Youth, he debuted 2nd at Saratoga last summer.

PROTECTIVE
7
STATS →
PROTECTIVE
M/L
20-1
Career Record:
4: 0-1-2
Career Earnings:
$121,920
Past 5 Races:
3-3-4-2
Jockey:
Tyler Gaffalione
Trainer:
Todd Pletcher
Color/Age:
Dark Bay or Brown / 3yo
Pedigree:
Medaglia d'Oro-Grace Hall

Maiden exits third-place finishes in the Peter Pan and Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. No lack in pedigree as his dam Grace Hall was a Grade 1 winner at Saratoga, he's a maternal grandson of '03 Belmont winner Empire Maker and his sire Medaglia d'Oro was 2nd in this race in '02 and went on to win Saratoga's Jim Dandy, Travers &

HONOR MARIE
8
STATS →
HONOR MARIE
M/L
12-1
Career Record:
6: 2-2-0
Career Earnings:
$526,175
Past 5 Races:
8-2-5-1-2-1
Jockey:
Florent Geroux
Trainer:
Whit Beckman
Color/Age:
Bay / 3yo
Pedigree:
Honor Code-Dame Marie

Troubled trip 8th in the Kentucky Derby, he's pointed for the Belmont since. Last win came in November's Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes Stakes at Churchill. First Triple Crown starter for trainer Whit Beckman, a former assistant to Todd Pletcher & Chad Brown, was in the Derby.

SIERRA LEONE
9
STATS →
SIERRA LEONE
M/L
9-5
Career Record:
5: 3-2-0
Career Earnings:
$1,918,000
Past 5 Races:
2-1-1-2-1
Jockey:
Flavien Prat
Trainer:
Chad Brown
Color/Age:
Dark Bay or Brown / 3yo
Pedigree:
Gun Runner-Heavenly Love

Nose runner-up in the Kentucky Derby is a mere 2 noses short of being unbeaten in his career. Lugging in late has been an issue and trainer Chad Brown turns to Flavien Prat on a jockey change from Tyler Gaffalione. Likely Belmont favorite.

MINDFRAME
10
STATS →
MINDFRAME
M/L
7-2
Career Record:
2: 2-0-0
Career Earnings:
$87,360
Past 5 Races:
1-1
Jockey:
Irad Ortiz Jr.
Trainer:
Todd Pletcher
Color/Age:
Dark Bay or Brown / 3yo
Pedigree:
Constitution-Walk of Stars

Most lightly raced contender in this year's Belmont has won both starts, a Gulfstream maiden and a Kentucky Derby Day undercard allowance at Churchill Downs. Win margins were 13-3/4 and 7-1/2 lengths in those blowouts. Trainer Todd Pletcher is a 4-time Belmont Stakes winner.

FIRST CALL // RACING PODCAST

  • BELMONT STAKES DAY COVERAGE
  • JEFF SIEGEL & JEREMY PLONK
  • In-Depth Analysis of 9 Grade 1 Stakes
  • Latest News

IT'S OFFICIAL // RACING PODCAST

  • BELMONT POST POSITION ANALYSIS
  • PACE PROJECTION
  • WORKOUT ANALYSIS
  • LONGSHOT PICKS: TOP PICKS

BELMONT STAKES

EXPERT BEST BETS

MICHELLE YU
BELMONT STAKES

SIERRA LEONE
MYSTIK DAN
MINDFRAME

JON WHITE
BELMONT STAKES

MINDFRAME
SIERRA LEONE
MYSTIK DAN
SEIZE THE GREY

BAILEY ARMOUR
BELMONT STAKES

SIERRA LEONE
MYSTIK DAN
SEIZE THE GREY
ANTIQUARIAN

TOM QUIGLEY
BELMONT STAKES

SIERRA LEONE
MINDFRAME
MYSTIK DAN
ANTIQUARIAN

BRIAN SPENCER
BELMONT STAKES

SIERRA LEONE
DORNOCH
MYSTIK DAN
SEIZE THE GREY

SAMANTHA PERRY
BELMONT STAKES

SIERRA LEONE
MINDFRAME
HONOR MARIE
SEIZE THE GREY

SCOTT SHAPIO
BELMONT STAKES

MINDFRAME
SIERRA LEONE
RESILIENCE
MYSTIK DAN

ZOE CADMAN
BELMONT STAKES

SIERRA LEONE
MINDFRAME
PROTECTIVE
MYSTIK DAN

KALI FRANCOIS
BELMONT STAKES

MINDFRAME
SIERRA LEONE
ANTIQUARIAN
HONOR MARIE

PETER LURIE
BELMONT STAKES

SIERRA LEONE
MINDFRAME
PROTECTIVE

RON NICOLETTI
BELMONT STAKES

RESILIENCE
MINDFRAME
SIERRA LEONE
MYSTIK DAN

BRIAN NADEAU
BELMONT STAKES

MINDFRAME
SIERRA LEONE
MYSTIK DAN
HONOR MARIE

GEORGE ORTUZAR
BELMONT STAKES

SIERRA LEONE
MYSTIK DAN
MINDFRAME

KEITH FEUSTLE
BELMONT STAKES

SIERRA LEONE
HONOR MARIE
MYSTIK DAN
DORNOCH

JEFF SIEGEL
BELMONT STAKES

MINDFRAME
SIERRA LEONE
MYSTIK DAN
SEIZE THE GREY

JEREMY PLONK
BELMONT STAKES

RESILIENCE
SIERRA LEONE
HONOR MARIE
MINDFRAME

EDDIE OLCZYK
BELMONT STAKES

MINDFRAME
SIERRA LEONE
RESILIENCE
MYSTIK DAN

RACE 12

MILLIE BALL

ACORN STAKES

friday // JUNE 7

G1 // $500,000 // 1-1/8 MILES

SCENE SETTER: Kentucky Oaks winner THORPEDO ANNA and Black-Eyed Susan winner GUN SONG bring their Churchill and Pimlico victories to Saratoga’s Acorn on the final Friday lead-in to the 2024 Triple Crown. THORPEDO ANNA had been teased as a potential Belmont Stakes entrant, and may have been had trainer Kenny McPeek already not had Kentucky Derby winner MYSTIK DAN for that one. Ashland Stakes 1-2 finishers LESLIE’S ROSE and (’23 Champion 2-Year-Old Filly) JUST FYI are back for another shot at THORPEDO ANNA. From its 1931 inaugural through 2022, the Acorn had been at a 1-mile distance. It expanded to 1-1/16 miles last year at Belmont Park and will be offered at 1-1/8 miles this year, a complete lap of the Saratoga main track.

1/ST BET FACTORS, POWERED BY BETMIX:

Top 1/ST BET handicapping factors in recent editions of the Acorn Stakes have included Last Race Class, Distance Pedigree Rating, Avg. Last 3 Purse and Avg. Races Classes.

$100 wagering strategy:

  • $40 Exacta Part-Wheel: THORPEDO ANNA over POWER SQUEEZE, LESLIE’S ROSE ($80)
  • $20 Exacta: THORPEDO ANNA over JUST FYI

TOP 4 PICKS

1. THORPEDO ANNA
2. POWER SQUEEZE
3. LESLIE'S ROSE
4. JUST FYI

STATS & TRENDS

LAST 10 FAVORITES' FINISHES
LAST 10 WINNERS PREPS

ACORN STAKES DAY FULL-CARD AI PICKS

ACORN STAKES DAY free pPS

RACE 12

EDDIE OLCZYK

belmont stakes

saturday // june 8

G1 // $2,000,000 // 1-1/4 MILES

SCENE SETTER: The 18-1 Kentucky Derby upset by MYSTIK DAN was followed by a similarly surprising Preakness result when SEIZE THE GREY scored at nearly 10-1 odds. What’s in store for a Belmont Stakes held at Saratoga, long dubbed the “Graveyard of Favorites?” The Belmont winner hasn’t been more than 10-1 odds since Creator popped a 16-1 price in 2016. The $1 trifecta in this race has averaged just $110 the past 4 years. But from 1999-2016, this race averaged a nearly 17-1 winner. Might the crazy train stop in Saratoga Springs?

1/ST BET FACTORS, POWERED BY BETMIX

Among the most important 1/ST BET individual handicapping factors for the Belmont Stakes historically have been Speed Last Race, Best Speed Last 3 and Last E1 Pace.

workout report // xbtv

NAME
DATE
TRACK
DIST.
TIME

NOTES:

EDZO'S $100 wagering strategy

  • $28 Win: MINDFRAME
  • $10 Exacta Key-Box: MINDFRAME with SIERRA LEONE, RESILIENCE, MYSTIK DAN ($60)
  • $1 Trifecta Part-Wheel: MINDFRAME, SIERRA LEONE with MINDFRAME, SIERRA LEONE, RESILIENCE, MYSTIK DAN with MINDFRAME, SIERRA LEONE, RESILIENCE, MYSTIK DAN ($12)

EDZO'S TOP 4 PICKS

1. MINDFRAME
2. SIERRA LEONE
3. RESILIENCE
4. MYSTIK DAN

stats & trends

BELMONT FAVORITES (LAST 10 YRS)
HIGHEST-PRICED SUPERFECTA FINISHERS (LAST 20 YRS)
'23 BELMONT HANDLE (IN MILLIONS)

belmont stakes day FULL-CARD AI PICKS

free belmont stakes day pps

RACE 12

jeff siegel

BELMONT STAKES

JEFF'S TAKE

G1 // $2,000,000 // 1-1/4 MILES

SCENE SETTER: Since Justify’s Triple Crown sweep in 2018, no horse has even doubled up victories in the series. The past 17 Triple Crown races have seen 17 different winners, including MYSTIK DAN and SEIZE THE GREY in this year’s Kentucky Derby and Preakness, respectively. Might either snap that streak Saturday in the Belmont Stakes, or will Derby runner-up SIERRA LEONE reclaim the spotlight? Horses like Arcangelo and Sir Winston in recent years have found success making their Triple Crown debuts in the final jewel. That’s the hopeful path of contenders like ANTIQUARIAN, THE WINE STEWARD and the unbeaten, but lightly raced, MINDFRAME.

1/ST BET FACTORS, POWERED BY BETMIX

Among the most important 1/ST BET individual handicapping factors for the Belmont Stakes historically have been Distance Pedigree Rating, Best Speed Track and Dirt Pedigree Rating.

JEFF'S $100 wagering strategy

  • $50 Win: MINDFRAME
  • $25 Exacta Box: MINDFRAME and SIERRA LEONE ($50)

JEFF'S TOP 4 picks

1. MINDFRAME
2. SIERRA LEONE
3. MYSTIK DAN
4. SEIZE THE GREY

STATS & TRENDS

Kentucky Derby-Belmont Winners (No Triple Crown)
Preakness-Belmont Winners (No Triple Crown)
BELMONT WINNERS' POSITION AFTER 1 MILE

RACE 12

jeremy plonk

BELMONT STAKES

plonk's play

G1 // $2,000,000 // 1-1/4 MILES

SCENE SETTER: Historic Saratoga Racecourse hosts the Belmont Stakes for the first time – and will do so again in 2025 while Belmont Park undergoes total reconstruction. The venue change is unique in contemporary terms, but note the Belmont Stakes was named for August Belmont, not the track that also bears his name. The Belmont Stakes debuted in 1867, some 38 years before Belmont Park opened. It originated at Jerome Park, moved to Morris Park and eventually to its Elmont home in 1905. From 1963-’67, the Belmont Stakes had a temporary home at Aqueduct as Belmont Park underwent a major renovation.

1/ST BET FACTORS, POWERED BY BETMIX

Among the most important 1/ST BET individual handicapping factors for the Belmont Stakes historically have been Avg. Earnings Track, Last E2 Pace and Avg. of Last 3 E1 Pace.

JEREMY'S $100 wagering strategy

  • $60 Win RESILIENCE
  • $5 Exacta Key-Box: RESILIENCE with SIERRA LEONE, HONOR MARIE, MINDFRAME ($30)
  • $5 Exacta Part-Wheel: SIERRA LEONE, MINDFRAME over HONOR MARIE ($10)

JEREMY'S TOP 4 picks

1. RESILIENCE
2. SIERRA LEONE
3. HONOR MARIE
4. MINDFRAME

THE LAST...

Kentucky Derby Winner to Win: Justify (2018)

Derby Runner-Up to Win: Empire Maker (2003)

‍Preakness Winner to Win: Justify (2018)

‍Preakness Runner-Up to Win: Victory Gallop (1998)

‍Skipped Derby and Preakness to Win: Arcangelo (2023)

Ran Derby, Skipped Preakness to Win: Mo Donegal (2022)

‍Jockey to win back-to-back: Laffit Pincay, Jr. (1982-’84 three-peat on Conquistador Cielo, Caveat and Swale)

‍Jockey to win his debut: Manny Franco (2020 Tiz the Law)

‍Trainer to win back-to-back: D. Wayne Lukas (1994-‘96 three-peat with Tabasco Cat, Thunder Gulch and Editor’s Note)

Trainer to win debut: Jena Antonucci (2023 Arcangelo)

‍Filly to win: Rags to Riches (2007)

Filly to compete: Nest (2022, 2nd)

‍Gelding to win: Ruler On Ice (2011), prior Crème Fraiche (1985)

‍Wire-to-wire winner: Justify (2018)

‍Winner to close from more than 10 lengths back: Jazil (2006)

BELMONT WINNERS' LAYOFFS LAST 10 YRS

belmont stakes

last 20 years

FACT SHEET

WIN-PLACE-SHOW ODDS

WIN ODDS
Average
10.38-to-1
--
High
38.50-to-1
Da'Tara '08
Low
.75-to-1
American Pharoah '15
Notable: 5 of the last 9 winners were 5-to-2 or less (most recently Mo Donegal, 2022).
PLACE ODDS
Average
7.80-to-1
--
High
28-to-1
Commissioner '14
Low
1.95-to-1
Tacitus '19
Notable: 8 of the last 9 runners-up have been single-digit odds.
SHOW ODDS
Average
13.18-to-1
--
High
34.25-to-1
Anak Nakal '08
Low
1.25-to-1
Mine That Bird '09
Notable: Orb in 2013 was the last Belmont favorite to finish third.

exotics payoffs

EXACTA ($2 PAYOFFS)
Average
$174.93
--
High
$928.00
Ruler On Ice-Stay Thirsty '11
Low
$13.60
American Pharoah-Frosted '15
Notable: 7 straight Belmont Stakes $2 exactas have paid $96 or less.
TRIFECTA ($1 PAYOFFS)
Average
$801.53
--
High
$4,134.00
Ruler On Ice-Stay Thirsty-Brilliant Speed '11
Low
$21.70
Essential Quality-Hot Rod Charlie-Rombauer '21
Notable: The $1 trifecta has paid $312 or less in 6 of the last 7 years.
SUPERFECTA ($1 PAYOFFS)
Average
$6,315.69
--
High
$37,023.00
Ruler On Ice-Stay Thirsty-Brilliant Speed-Nehro '11
Low
$60.70
Essential Quality-Hot Rod Charlie-Rombauer-Known Agenda '21
Average Odds of Fourth-place finishers:
10.72-to-1
--
Notable: The $1 super payoff has topped $1,000 in 13 of 23 all-time offerings, 6 times over $10,000.

'23 BELMONT STAKES replay

  • Arcangelo
  • Forte
  • Tapit Tice
  • Hit Show
  • Angel Of Empire
'23 PAYOUTS (W-P-S Arcangelo)
$2 Win: $17.80
$2 Place: $7.20
$2 Show: 4.10
$2 Exacta: $68.00
$.50Trifecta: $66.62
$.10 Superfecta: $29.25
$2 Double: $71.00
$2 Pick 3: $85.50
$.50 Pick 4: $183.25
$.50 Pick 5: $444.75
$1 Pick 6: $1,492.50

free belmont stakes day pps