Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
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Saratoga Race 1: Post: 10:45 ET Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 2-Roswell; 1-Save Us Melania; 8-Will Be Famous.
Backups: none.
Forecast: Roswell went sour last fall and was turned out. She’s fired fresh in the past and has numbers to go back to that can win, including a pair of 90+ Beyers over the local main track last summer. If ready, the W. Mott-trained filly can beat this field. Save Us Melania has won two of her last three with good numbers and was an easy winner in her only prior outing at Saratoga, albeit against maiden $20,000 company. Her Aqueduct form has been consistently solid during the winter and spring and her pace stalking/prompting style should produce a trouble-free trip. Will Be Famous, claimed in her last pair and now in the R. Atras barn, has never had much luck at the Spa and needs some help in the speed figure department but could produce an improved effort for her new connections. The veteran mare likes to stalk and pounce and should have her kind of trip, according to the projected race flow.
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Saratoga Race 2: Post: 11:20 ET Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 4-Mainstream
Backups: 7-Draft Riots.
Forecast: Mainstream should be too quick for these. In the frame in both of his career starts, the son of Speightstown earned a monster figure (93 Beyer) when worn down late over a wet track at Churchill Downs on Derby Day and nothing more should be needed to earn a diploma against this group. He’s 6/5 on the morning line and on paper looks it.
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Saratoga Race 3: Post: 11:55 ET Grade: X
Main Ticket: 7-Redistricting.
Backups: 4-El Rezeen; 2-Swifsure.
Forecast: Redistricting exits a series of graded stakes races and should thoroughly enjoy this class drop into the conditioned allowance ranks. Sixth but beaten less than two lengths in the Turf Classic-G1 at Churchill Downs on Derby Day, the Kingman gelding is very fast on numbers, and absent something unforeseen should verify his 6/5 morning line price.
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Saratoga Race 4: Post: 12:35 ET Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 9-General Partner
Backups: 1-Radio Red; 8-Hades.
Forecast: General Partner loves Saratoga – he earned a career top 101 Beyer when crushing an allowance field here last summer – and though he’s burned money in his last two starts as the odds-on favorite the son of Speightstown should have every chance to regain his winning form with the return to the Spa. He’s listed at 7/2 on the morning line and is a gamble at that price, if you can get it.
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Saratoga Race 5: Post: 1:15 ET Grade: B
Main Ticket: 2-Silver Slugger; 1-Unlimitedpotential.
Backups: 6-Antonio of Venice.
Forecast: Silver Slugger is a thoroughly genuine and consistent sprinter with strong speed figures and the proper pace pressing style for this distance. He started off cheap at Tampa Bay Downs but has worked his way right up the class ladder, and after missing in a photo in a graded sprint stakes at the Big A last time out the son of Cairo Prince drops into the first level allowance ranks to steal a purse. Unlimitedpotential isn’t as fast on pure numbers as our top pick but has run well at Saratoga in the past and has never been worse than second in four starts at this seven furlong trip.
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Saratoga Race 6: Post: 1:55 ET Grade: X
Main Ticket: 6-Nitrogen
Backups: 2-May Day Ready.
Forecast: Nitrogen is easily the best sophomore turf filly in North America and will be odds-on to extend her winning streak to five in this year’s renewal of the Wonder Again S.-G2. She’s never raced at Saratoga and we’re not sure how she’ll handle soggy ground if that’s what she’s faced with, but we doubt the conditions, whatever they may be, will stand in her way.
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Saratoga Race 7: Post: 2:37 ET Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 5-Mullikin; 4-Nakatomi.
Backups: 2-Crazy Mason.
Forecast: Mulligan won the Forego-S.-G1 over the Saratoga main track last year and although the R. Brisset-trained horse has not won in three subsequent starts, we’re thinking that the return to the Spa will get this talented son of Violence back on the winning track. He’s especially effective in extended sprints and is reunited with “win rider” F. Prat, so there should be no excuses. Nakatomi is back from Dubai, where he ran lights out when missing by a neck in the valuable Golden Shaheen S.-G1 at Meydan in early April. Another with proven winning form at the Spa, the W. Ward-trained gelding captured the A. G. Vanderbilt S.-G1 here last year and has been burning up the Keeneland main track in the morning since returning from the Middle East.
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Saratoga Race 8: Post: 3:17 ET Grade: A-
Main Ticket: 1-Fierceness
Backups: 2-White Abarrio.
Forecast: It’s very hard to pick against Fierceness in this year’s edition of the Met Mile, so we won’t even try. A perfect three-for-three over the Saratoga main track, the son of City of Light is very fast on figures and has developed the consistency that he lacked earlier in this career. He’s even money on the morning line and is likely to go lower.
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Saratoga Race 9: Post: 4:08 ET Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 2-Think Big
Backups: 5-Arzak.
Forecast: Think Big has developed into a high class turf sprinter – perhaps the best in North America – and conditions appear ideal for the Twirling Candy gelding to extend his winning streak to four and five of his last six. The M. Stidham-trained four year old prefers to settle in mid-pack and then blast home and this rider knows him well and fits him perfectly. At 6/5 on the morning line he’s expected to win but not offer much in the way of wagering value.
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Saratoga Race 10: Post: 4:47 ET Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 1-Zulu Kingdom
Backups: none.
Forecast: Here’s another short-priced favorite that will be a rolling exotic single on the majority of tickets. Zulu Kingdom has been beaten just once in six starts and most recently earned a career top number (90 Beyer) when winning the American Turf-G1 against a tougher field on Derby day at Churchill Downs. He’s 6/5 on the morning line and almost certainly (or should be) odds-on.
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Saratoga Race 11: Post: 5:28 ET Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 4-Patch Adams; 10-Chancer McPatrick.
Backups: 8-Gunmetal.
Forecast: Patch Adams has two terrific sprint outings on his resume – a maiden win by more than 10 lengths last fall and a fast, highly rated allowance victory over a sloppy track on Derby day at Churchill Downs. In between were a couple of disappointing distance races, but this son of Into Mischief is clearly much more effective around one turn and he should continue his outstanding form at this seven furlong distance of the Woody Stephens S.-G1 for 3-year-olds. Based strictly on speed figures the B. Cox-trained sophomore is fast enough to win despite the class hike, and you may get close to his 5-1 morning line due to F. Prat opting for Chancer McPatrick. The latter, like our top pick, turns back to what should be his best trip after failing to perform up to expectations over a distance of ground. His sprint races last year were spectacular, and we expect to see the best he has to offer today, which makes him a major player.
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Saratoga Race 12: Post: 6:09 ET Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 6-Spirit of St Louis; 5-Deterministic.
Backups: 3-Highway Robber.
Forecast: Spirit of St Louis, never worse than second in three career outings over the Saratoga turf course, has won three of his last four starts overall, including the Turf Classic-G1 on Derby Day at Churchill Downs. The C. Brown-trained gelding is consistent and reliable, and his best race is good enough to win again. Deterministic likes the front end and if he’s able to secure a trip as the controlling speed the rapidly developing son of Liam’s Map may prove to be an elusive target. He’s never been quite this good, but a career top 98 Beyer speed figure when winning the Ft. Marcy S.-G2 indicates he’s getting close.
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Saratoga Race 13: Post: 7:04 ET Grade: A-
Main Ticket: 3-Rodriguez; 7-Journalism.
Backups: none.
Forecast: Rodriguez will be the controlling speed, and in two prior outings with that kind of trip the son of Authentic ran away and hid - most recently in the Wood Memorial S.-G2 - while earning triple digit Beyer numbers in both of those victories. Freshened and breezing better and better with each workout, the B. Baffert-trained colt may be stretching his limit at 10 furlongs but if not policed early he can take control from the gate and never look back to spring the upset. There’s a gamble here at 6-1 on the morning line if you can get it (and you should). Journalism will be racing for third time in five weeks. That’s really the only concern. Otherwise, the Preakness S.-G1 winning son of Curlin almost certainly will fire another big shot and be the one our top pick will have to hold off in the final furlong.
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Saratoga Race 14: Post: 8:02 ET Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 2-Taraj (Ire) ; Then.
Backups: 8-Smooth Breeze; 4-Deuteronomy.
Forecast: Taraj (ire) makes his U.S. debut in this first level allowance turf router and based on his European form the Irish-bred colt should outclass this field. The W. Mott-trained colt was Group-3 placed in Ireland two races back when assigned a 99 Timeform Rating, and that makes him a strong fit at this level on this circuit. He’s a first time Lasix user for a barn that generally does well with European imports. Then is the best of the local contingent. He’s a stretch runner with a dangerous late kick, so if the pace is normal or faster he’ll be heard from in the closing stages.
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