The Lead:
Five Grade 1 stakes headline Travers Day at Saratoga, a 13-race card bursting at the seams with interest. Perhaps no race has more national, divisional importance toward the Breeders' Cup than the 7-furlong Ballerina. The Filly & Mare Sprint division's best are headed towards an epic clash in Race 10.
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Field Depth:
Grade 1 winners abound here, namely GOODNIGHT OLIVE, MATAREYA and ECHO ZULU. The Grade 2 winners include MARYQUITECONTRARY, WICKED HALO and CARAMEL SWIRL, all three also Grade 1-placed. DR B is a Grade 3 winner and Grade 2-placed.
Pace:
ECHO ZULU and MATAREYA have the most early speed in a race that's loaded with stalkers. WICKED HALO also could be forward, but it's unlikely the Steve Asmussen-trained stablemate of ECHO ZULU will get into a battle. This race looks capable of being won up front.
Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.
1-STERLING SILVER: Solid closer has run some of her best races over the main track at Saratoga, including a narrow runner-up last summer behind Ballerina rival Wicked Halo. She exits a win at the track and distance and will need to work out a clear path from the rail under Javier Castellano, who could be sitting on a big day with Travers contender Arcangelo later on the card. Still doesn't appear to have the game to beat all of these top contenders even on her best effort to date.
2-MATAREYA: Beat Wicked Halo and Goodbye Olive in the Derby City Distaff at Churchill on Kentucky Derby Day while benefitting from a tight stretch run between those rivals in pursuit. Her stellar 3-year-old season continually looked like she was catching very favorable race competition and race shapes, so I've never fully trusted her against the tops of the division. She's won 1 of her last 4 and had traffic help in that victory. But she's freshened since June 24 and should get a dynamite trip just off the speed.
3-MARYQUITECONTRARY: Gets back to her best trip at 7 furlongs Saturday after never being involved in the 6-furlong Honorable Miss over this track last month. Was it Saratoga, the distance or the poor race shape of a 4-horse field when Echo Zulu dusted her in wire-to-wire fashion? Her previous tries were so genuine both at Gulfstream and Keeneland that I'm willing to give her consideration with the extra furlong. But the early pace doesn't look super-fast to help the closers.
4-DR B: Four times runner-up in her last 6 starts, she's never beaten this caliber of competition and has to make up 7+ and 13+ lengths on her last two conquerors, Echo Zulu and Goodnight Olive. She doesn't look fast enough to make the front and won't be the type passing horses late, which is a tough situation for an admirably consistent filly.
5-WICKED HALO: Last year's local Prioress winner is 2-for-2 at the Spa and arguably in the best form of her career right now. She's cross-entered in Friday's $250,000 Pink Ribbon at Charles Town, where stablemate Society is a heavy 6-5 favorite. Has the potential early speed to be in the mix throughout, though she's flattened out a bit more often than not over 7 furlongs.
6-ECHO ZULU: Filly to beat off her massive victory in the local prep, the Honorable Miss, and she's arguably better at 7 furlongs than that sizzler at 6. Runner-up last year to Goodnight Olive in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint, but her 2023 form has been more eye-catching to date than her rival. The modest early pace threats in this race favor her running style as well, giving her another feather in the handicapping cap.
7-GOODNIGHT OLIVE: The defending Ballerina champ and last year's champion female sprinter has but two losses in her 10-race career. One of those was a highly troubled, obvious traffic-marred trip in the Derby City Distaff to Matareya and Wicked Halo. Her 2 wins this year were not as visually impressive as her 2022 form, so she's yet to run back to her championship caliber in her last 3 starts. She will need to find that mojo to catch Echo Zulu this time. Trainer Chad Brown is having a remarkable Saratoga season and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. has more than double the stakes wins this meet than any other rider. She's in the right hands at least.
8-CARAMEL SWIRL: Trainer Bill Mott's remarkable stakes meet at the Spa could get another notch if last year's Ballerina runner-up is able to step forward just a bit. She was 2-3/4 lengths behind Goodnight Olive here last summer and just 1 length behind her last out in the Bed O Roses at Belmont. Her late-running style is very similar in form to Goodnight Olive, so she'll have the same tall task of being forced to run down Echo Zulu.
Most Certain Exotics Contender:
ECHO ZULU is primed, loves the Spa and has a favorable pace set-up for her early speed.
Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
CARAMEL SWIRL will offer more value than GOODNIGHT OLIVE and should have a very similar chance in their third go-around.
Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
Let's take our chance that we can get GOODNIGHT OLIVE out of the top two. $50 exacta part-wheel ECHO ZULU over CARAMEL SWIRL and MARYQUITECONTRARY ($100).
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