The Lead:
The 2-year-olds take center stage nationally this week with the Champagne in New York, the Breeders' Futurity in Kentucky and the Grade 1 $300,000 American Pharoah in California. Santa Anita's Saturday card runs 5 stakes deep and the American Pharoah looks to springboard the Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner for the second straight year and seventh time in the last dozen seasons.
Horseplayers at Xpressbet and 1/ST BET be sure to take advantage of the Breeders' Cup Bankroll series of promotional races that includes Saturday's American Pharoah Stakes. Bet $25 on this race and earn a $5 wagering credit that goes into your account on Breeders' Cup Friday (Oct. 31). There are 12 races in the promotion between Oct. 3 and 26.
Field Depth:
DESERT GATE is the field's lone graded stakes winner to date, scoring at the Grade 3 level and also is Grade 1-placed. CIVIL LIBERTY is Grade 1-placed, while PLUTARCH has placed at the Grade 3 level. While class is subjective with lightly raced 2-year-olds, DESERT GATE has kept the deepest strength of schedule.
Pace:
With 4 stretchout sprinters, you can expect a solid pace over 1-1/16 miles, but this likely won't blister. How fast CIVIL LIBERTY goes could be key as Bob Baffert trainees KIRSTOFFERSON, BALBOA and DESERT GATE aren't likely to duel one another into submission as that barn eyes a 14th win in the American Pharoah and fifth straight.
Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.
#1-DESERT GATE (pictured): Santa Anita debut winner in June added the Grade 3 Best Pal at Del Mar and was a game second to barnmate Brant in the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity after a rocky trip. Omaha Beach colt lures Juan Hernandez, who had ridden the 3 other Bafferts in at least one prior start. Not the flashiest workhorse on video at 1st.tv going into the Del Mar Futurity or coming out, so not able to glean any hint to if he's progressing or peaking ... but was not wow'd like most often you are around Baffert drills. Every chance to get his Grade 1 here without Del Mar Futurity-winning stablemate Brant taking this step with him, and plenty of pedigree for more, though he doesn't have any edges on BRIS late pace figures and that last race could have taken a bit out of him. He'll need to be forward throughout for his best shot.
#2-INTREPIDO: Jeff Mullins trainee turned heads in a Del Mar 1-mile MSW victory and beat a couple Bafferts there, including Provenance, a son of champion Monomoy Girl who returned to win at next asking. Big 101 BRIS late pace figure in the last is a great sign, as is the fact that this son of Maximus Mischief brought a gaudy $385K price tag at the 2YO sale this spring and is the kind you expect an immediate return on investment. Capable X-factor to bring down the Baffert foursome and jockey Hector Berrios got off to a quick start at the SA meet.
#3-PLUTARCH: Maiden has been a late-running second in a pair of 2-turn miles, no match for Intrepido on dirt (when he had a superb gallop-out) and then a good second on grass in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf. Regally bred Into Mischief-Stellar Wind hasn't come with fanfare at 9-1 and 5-1 in prior starts and loses Hernandez to Desert Gate here. Kazushi Kimura takes the reins. Get Her Number did win the 2020 American Pharoah coming off a turf prep.
#4-CIVIL LIBERTY: Doug O'Neill's 0-2 colt by Independence Hall was a modest third in the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity at 15-1 odds. He must make up more than 3 lengths on Desert Game, not to mention the other new challenges, but is bred for distance. Even-running sprinter didn't buckle in either start, and might be one-paced enough to like the route. The barn has won this race twice, including with champion and eventual Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist.
#5-BALBOA: Baffert's rank outside of the field, he pressed and faded to fifth in the Del Mar Futurity at 28-1 and likely contributes to the pace even with blinkers being removed. Hernandez and Kimura both land on other stablemates as Umberto Rispoli picks up the call for the first time. Pedigree and BRIS late pace figures indicate the route distance should be a huge obstacle vs. these.
#6-KRISTOFFERSON: Only of the 4 Baffert entrants coming out of the maiden ranks. Note since 2014, Baffert is 10: 1-3-1 with maiden risers in the American Pharoah, while a dominant 13: 6-2-1 with those exiting stakes preps. This one's big 90 Beyer Speed Figure is going to take money as 1:08-4/5 Del Mar debut buzzsaws won't find any shadows. Hernandez jumps to the stakes-experienced Desert Gate, but Mike Smith deputizes and he and Baffert teamed last week to upset the Grade 1 Goodwood with Nevada Beach. This $1.1 million colt is by 2015 American Pharoah winner Nyquist and his 96 BRIS late pace figure indicates there's more in the tank. Legit threat even on the rise.
Most Likely Exotics Contender:
INTREPIDO at 6-1 morning line and the fourth choice in the projections offers a lot to like. With Baffert's best 2YO Brant sitting this one out, this Jeff Mullins rep is in with a real chance.
Best Longshot Contender:
INTREPIDO at 6-1 morning line and the fourth choice in the projections offers a lot to like. With Baffert's best 2YO Brant sitting this one out, this Jeff Mullins rep is in with a real chance.
Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$60 win INTREPIDO. $15 exacta box INTREPIDO and KRISTOFFERSON ($30). $5 exacta box INTREPIDO and PLUTARCH ($10).
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