The Lead:
We'll wrap April and pivot toward the Triple Crown after Saturday's big day at Golden Gate Fields. Northern California's deepest and most important race card of the year includes the Lost In The Fog, California Oaks, California Derby and the featured San Francisco Mile. The wagering menu includes several guaranteed pools over the big weekend:
Saturday, Late Pick 5 - $150,000
Saturday, Late Pick 4 - $200,000
Sunday, Late Pick 5 - $100,000
Sunday, Late Pick 4 - $100,000
Field Depth:
DICEY MO CHARA is a Grade 2 winner, while BOB AND JACKIE and BALNIKHOV have Grade 3 scores to their credit. TARANTINO is Grade 2-placed, as is FLAVIUS. These fall have similar strength of schedules and tower over the others.
Pace:
LAMPLIGHTER JACK likely goes to the front with IL BELLATOR and BOB AND JACKIE in closest pursuit. This looks like a fair pace scenario for most all running styles.
Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.
1-TARANTINO: Bounced around barns over the year and hasn't won in 6 starts for Ed Moger Jr. At his best, turf miles are his best trip and should save all the ground under a top local pilot.
2-BALNIKHOV (pictured above): Southern California turf kingpin Phil D'Amato sends this turf mile specialist to GGF for the first time in a great spot. With no early foot to speak of, he'll need a quick pace ... preferring if BOB AND JACKIE gets into the mix right away with the local speedsters. Saves ground, swings out, makes them sweat late.
3-RIO KING: Class riser won 3 straight on the Tapeta from off the pace and now shortens the trip to a mile on grass, the same trip as his maiden breaker in November. But he's never faced a group remotely close to this one in talent. If a closer succeeds, prefer others' classier late kicks.
4-BOB AND JACKIE: Veteran from SoCal makes his first trip to the Bay Area while trying to snap a 5-race losing streak. Blinkers and a slightly easier field last time helped him perk back up in performance. He'll have to dispatch 2 local speed horses and then fend off the talented closers, a tall order.
5-TESORO: Beat turf milers at Golden Gate nearly 1 year ago and hasn't had any success since in various spots on dirt, synthetic or turf. Gelded since his last start in October and picks an awfully tough comeback spot to see what he's got now. O.J. Jauragui barn having a big season, but not know for these types of layoffs.
6-LAMPLIGHTER JACK: Ex-claimer has significant early pace and will take them as far as he can while rising in class. Departed Florida for Santa Anita over the winter and blitzed starter allowance foes wire-to-wire. He's fast and if left alone can do some damage; the real question comes if he's pressured hard.
7-IL BELLATOR: Potential pace player has not started since Del Mar in September, but fired a good effort here off the freshening in the El Camino Real Derby and in the Rupert Derby at Santa Rosa. Expect trainer Jose Bautista to have him sharp, but this will be his first challenge against older horses. It's a significant step up in class and there's other pace pressure to make it difficult.
8-FLAVIUS: Away for 18 months, this 8-year-old won the rich Tourist Mile at Kentucky Downs in 2020 when under the eye of Chad Brown. He's bounced around trainers from Mike Maker, Richard Baltas and George Papaprodromou since his glory days. With no wins since September 2021, you have to demand a price if you're banking on blind faith that he's still got some of his old game. The workouts are strong at San Luis Rey that it just may be the case. But get a price.
9-DICEY MO CHARA: Distance specialist cuts back to a mile distance that will be a challenge. His pace versatility is a plus in this situation, so it's up to jockey Drayden Van Dyke to figure out the trip. It's not easy from the widest draw. I don't look at him a a big turn-of-foot type, so he'll want to be among the first flight into the far turn and try to outlast them with his stamina. Legit contender with the right trip, underlay price with the wrong one.
Most Certain Exotics Contender:
BALNIKHOV is 5-for-6 in the exacta in turf miles.
Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
LAMPLIGHTER JACK will be sloughed off on class, but could take them a long, long way ... especially if others assume he's going to come back and let him go easily.
Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$100 win BALNIKHOV
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