$100,000 GRADE 3 MR. PROSPECTOR AT GULFSTREAM PARK
The Lead:
Sprinters move to the head of the class Saturday at Gulfstream Park with the 7-furlong Mr. Prospector Stakes, a Grade 3 3 event worth $100,000. The feature goes as Race 10 on an 11-race card that gets underway at noon ET. Gulfstream was good to us in this space last week, after a $23 top-pick winner in the Claiming Crown Jewel delivered a $708 score in our suggested wagers.
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Field Depth:
DENNIS' MOMENT was a Grade 3 winner as a juvenile, while WIND OF CHANGE was a Group 3 winner in his native Brazil before coming to America. ENDORSED is Grade 3-placed. Listed stakes winners here include POPPY'S PRIDE and OFFICIATING. There's not a wide swath here in terms of company lines and class; it's a pretty even match-up.
Pace:
Expect the early tempo to be set by WIND OF CHANGE, POPPY'S PRIDE and DOC AMSTER in what should be a solid pace for the often-testing trip at 7 furlongs. Deep closers are never common at Gulfstream on the dirt, so a horse sitting just off the pace of mid-flight may be preferred in this set-up.
Our Eyes:
Saffie Joseph Jr. stablemates WIND OF CHANGE and OFFICIATING both have credentials and questions. WIND OF CHANGE has been a wet-track specialist with 7 of his 8 career wins coming on off tracks. He set the pace and was fourth in this stakes last year (in a much, much tougher renewal), but has won just 1 of his last 12 -- ironically in Monmouth's version of the Mr. Prospector Stakes earlier this year. The 7 furlongs and other pace pressure make it a more difficult task for WIND OF CHANGE. As for OFFICIATING, he's run on turf, dirt and Tapeta in each of his last 3 starts and has bounced around between sprints and routes. He did win the Bear's Den over this track and distance in September, defeating a solid rival in Papetu, albeit on a sloppy track. Given the distance and pace set-up, OFFICIATING gains my preference on the Joseph pair, especially at what figures to be a better price.
DENNIS' MOMENT may be one of the most wildly inconsistent stakes horses of the past decade. When he's on, he's on. But when he's off, he's wayyyyy off. I liked what I saw at Keeneland in October in his allowance victory when he outran a field that included Mr. Prospector return rival FLAP JACK. In his last 5 sprint attempts, he's posted a trio of triple-digit BRIS late pace figures (102, 103 and last time out a career-high 106). Given the way the race sets up with 3 speed horses in front of him, his tactical speed should have him in a perfect spot if he fires. And if he does, he should notch his first stakes win in 27 months. His strong recent workouts indicate he may be holding his form.
ENDORSED hasn't won in his last 14 starts, but has upped his game some in his last 3 since claimed from Bill Mott by Mike Maker. He's trending in a better direction and pairs once again with top pilot Tyler Gaffalione. This is a difficult horse to pin down on running style. It will be up to Gaffalione to put him where he wants.
Most Certain Exotics Contender:
ENDORSED has finished in the superfecta in 7 of his last 8 and is 3-for-3 in the money at Gulfstream on dirt.
Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
FLAP JACK has lost 9 in a row, chiefly because he's failed to finish late. The addition of blinkers could push him forward when it counts. He only has to make up 2-1/2 lengths on DENNIS' MOMENT from their Keeneland clash.
Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$100 win DENNIS' MOMENT.
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