The Lead:
A $973 score in this space last week on the Florida Derby undercard sends us digging for another gem in the prelims for the Santa Anita Derby. Saturday's card at the Great Race Place features 5 stakes, and I'll focus on the Race 9 Monrovia for turf sprint fillies and mares.
Field Depth:
ICE DANCING is a Grade 3 winner and Grade 1-placed. Other Grade 3 winners include COMANCHE COUNTRY and CHISMOSA, the latter also Grade 2-placed. AG BULLET and LUCKY GIRL are listed stakes winners. COMANCHE COUNTRY and LUCKY GIRL arguably have faced the toughest schedules over time, but there's not a wild class gap between this group.
Pace:
GRACELAND GRAY and AG BULLET could set the early tempo, which doesn't look fast at all for a downhill turf sprint on paper. GETTHEMONEY may also present sooner than last and be part of the mix. You don't want to be too far off this pace and have to make up ground.
Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.
#1-GRACELUND GRAY: Beaten favorite when second in the Wishing Well over this trip, she's inside again and should get a similar trip with no excuses. Reunites with jockey Juan Hernandez, the only pilot to lead her to victory in her last 7 starts.
#2-ICE DANCING: Outran her 13-1 odds when a close fifth in the Wishing Well, which was her first time on turf, much less the unique, downhill trip. Sire Frosted has had limited success on the SA turf, but now with a race under belt over the grass, she might show a bit more of the sprint speed she had on dirt.
#3-COMANCHE COUNTRY: Leading turf trainer Phil D'Amato brings this filly back off a July layoff and shortens the trip from her 8 previous races since coming to the US. She had zero early foot around 2 turns and likely will be near the back hoping to make a run. Her best races were at age 2, and didn't develop at all at 3. She'll have to prove it at 4.
#4-CHIMOSA: Won the G3 Las Flores on dirt on January 1 and remains trainer Rafael DeLeon's only winner so far in 2024. Her turf form is respectable, but not as strong as her dirt form. Lack of early speed won't help her rally, but she's honest.
#5-MISS LIZZY: Three-time course winner from 8 attempts, she rallied from last of 10 to finish third in the Wishing Well, just over a length behind Monrovia rivals Ag Bullet and Gracelund Gray. Consistent turf sprinter takes on the toughest group of her career and doesn't get any pace help, but will be trying late.
#6-AG BULLET: Unbeaten in 3 turf starts, this Twirling Candy filly's form is soiled only by dirt and synthetic misfires. Pressed the pace and pushed clear late in the Wishing Well in her first trip down the hill. Umberto Rispoli rides and its notable she paired up wins in her 2023 form cycle.
#7-LUCKY GIRL: Miler cuts back in trip for the first time and is the veteran of this cast making her 17th career start. Phil D'Amato filly hasn't show a lick of early foot lately going 2 turns, so jockey Antonio Fresu will have his work cut out for him making up ground. She's all or nothing over the SA course with 3 wins and 7 off-the-board finishes.
#8-GETTHEMONEY: Stakes debut for 4-year-old allowance winner last month over this same trip. It was the Brian Koriner trainee's first start on turf and her first outing in 10 months, earning a hard-fought nose decision. Fair question if she'll move forward or bounce off that big effort, but 2 bullet workouts at Los Alamitos since then don't give any negative vibes.
Most Certain Exotics Contender:
AG BULLET is a course and distance winner and unbeaten on turf.
Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
ICE DANCING was 13-1 when finishing just behind a few of these in the Wishing Well and may show more speed Saturday in her second try down the hill.
Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$40 daily double ICE DANCING to IMAGINATION in Race 10; $15 exacta key-box ICE DANCING with GRACELUND GRAY, AG BULLET ($60).
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