The Lead:
With a mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 set for Saturday, additional eyes will be on Gulfstream Park racing. Part of that sequence will be the featured Race 9 Powder Break Stakes. The turf mile lured a field of 9, including a pair from a barn that's been dominant in this race in recent years.
Field Depth:
Grade 3 winner ANGEL NADESHIKO has the field's signature victory on her resume. WIDE WEST is a listed stakes winner, while listed stakes-placed performers include NAPA CANDY, TOWSER and CHICK'S SHADOW. Give the slight class edge to ANGEL NADESHIKO in terms of overall strength of schedule.
Pace:
The outside pair should cook from posts 8 and 9 with SWOONATRA and WIDE WEST. ANGEL NADESHIKO has shown some early foot, but also is pace versatile. This should be an above-average early pace for a turf mile and give finishers a chance if they fire their best shot.
Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.
#1-FRIENDLYPERSUASION: Kentucky-based Arrogate filly changes venues and trainers from Michael McCarthy to Heather Smullen. Hasn't shown much since 2-year-old season in 2022 and only turf try was a dud.
#2-NAPA CANDY: Another Kentucky transfer from Victoria Oliver to Joe Orseno, she was fourth at Ellis in her only turf attempt from 19 lifetime starts. She's arguably kept the strongest company of these fillies, albeit on dirt. A bit flat around 2 turns in limited, previous tries.
#3-TOWSER: Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. (pictured above) has won this Powder Break Stakes twice in the last 3 years and was runner-up in the other. His barn has hit 36% winners at Gulfstream since May 1 and this mare exits a solid second in stakes company. Last-out winner Ocean Club was a Grade 2-placed favorite, so no shame in her runner-up by a length to that one.
#4-JAN'S GIRL: Arguably a tad better on synthetic than turf, but surface and pace versatility are her strengths. Decent return try when fourth last out and note she got really good this time of year last season, winning 3 straight.
#5-NO VALLA: Ex-claimer makes a barn move to red-hot Carlos David outfit that's winning 27% at Gulfstream since the start of May. No Valla is hot in her own right, winning 2 straight against easier competition. Can't argue with 4: 3-0-0 local turf record or 5: 2-2-0 mark at distance. Class test.
#6-ANGEL NADESHIKO: Second of the Saffie Joseph Jr. trainees in this lineup as he looks to continue his Powder Break dominance. Newly transplanted jockey Drayden Van Dyke has been lights out for the barn at GP, going 5-for-9 in tandem. Has had her best success when able to make the lead, which could be difficult in this spot.
#7-CHICK'S SHADOW: Runner-up in this race last year at 28-1 has won just once in 13 starts over the past 2 seasons. The '23 Powder Break was moved to the Tapeta, but note she's a 3-time turf mile winner in her career. Reliable sort may find a few better.
#8-SWOONATRA: Speedster set a wicked pace last time and faded as the favorite. May not have to go quite that fast here, but will get no breather with Wide West to her outside. Her record over the course and distance is all-or-nothing, and it's difficult to envision a wire job.
#9-WIDE WEST: Turf sprinter is by the great grass miler Frankel and will finally get a chance to go around 2 turns. I'd prefer a stretch-out sprinter to be inside as the clubhouse turn comes up very fast and there's a chance these types blow the unexpected turn. Respect, even with the obvious hurdles.
Most Certain Exotics Contender:
TOWSER gets a great pace set-up and is 3-for-3 in the trifecta on turf.
Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
JAN'S GIRL returns to a promising part of the calendar in a good spot in her form cycle.
Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$70 win TOWSER. $5 Exacta key-box TOWSER with JAN'S GIRL, WIDE WEST and NO VALLA ($30).
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