The Lead:
The 1-turn configuration of the Grade 2 Cigar Mile at Aqueduct welcomes both sprinters and routers to one of the most important late-season races on the calendar. Saturday's field of 11 literally spans from alumni of the Breeders' Cup Sprint to the Dirt Mile to the Breeders' Cup Classic. The Big A card also features the Remsen and Demoiselle for the 2-year-olds, as well as the Go For Wand for the distaffers.
Field Depth:
Grade 1 winners abound, including BOOK 'EM DANNO, MULLIKIN, LOCKED and SENOR BUSCADOR. Meanwhile, POST TIME is a Grade 2 winner and Grade 1-placed. SENOR BUSCADOR has kept the strongest company lines overall.
Pace:
There's not a totally committed front-runner here, but NELSON AVENUE, REPO ROCKS, MULLIKIN and PIPELINE all have discernible speed and should make for a fair pace. No running styles seem advantaged or disadvantaged.
Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.
#1-BOOK 'EM DANNO: Eight 3-year-olds since 2000 have won the Cigar Mile as this late-running sprinter takes on elders for the first time on Saturday. Irad Ortiz Jr. rode him in the Saudi Derby and Woody Stephens, his 2 most important and successful races of the year. Nailed twice on the wire going 1 mile; perhaps 7 furlongs is his best.
#2-NELSON AVENUE: Longshot pace player was caught late in the Grade 3 Forty Niner, the local prep, by return rival Coastal Mission. Won 2 of 3 since claimed by Wayne Potts for $40,000. Tall task.
#3-REPO ROCKS: Veteran re-claimed for $75,000 by Jamie Ness in August but hasn't gotten back to his superior 2023 form. Fourth in the Forty Niner against a few of these and the waters get far deeper Saturday.
#4-VINSANITY: Sophomore won a $25,000 claimer for non-winners of 2 lifetime just 2 starts back and is biting off an overwhelming chunk of the apple here.
#5-MULLIKIN: Raging good form in all 5 starts this year, most recently third in the Breeders' Cup Sprint. Red-hot trainer Rodolphe Brisset has a fairly fresh horse even at this late stage of the year. Jockey Flavien Prat comes into Saturday with 23 graded stakes wins, just 2 shy of the single-season American record (Jerry Bailey, 25, 2003). Mile will be his longest trip, but pedigree and form relieve worries.
#6-LAW PROFESSOR: Rob Atras claim for $80,000 last out off a 9-furlong victory at the Big A. True course specialist at 7: 5-1-1 locally and a multiple local stakes winner. Fresh and fires second off the layoff while stepping back up in class.
#7-LOCKED: Todd Pletcher's 6 wins are a Cigar Mile record, while jockey John Velazquez could tie Jerry Bailey's race record with a fifth victory (and third straight) if successful. Visually dominant in his allowance return win after 11 months on the bench and ran huge in the second start of his form cycle last summer at Saratoga. Gun Runner colt could be a massive player in 2025, and would be no surprise to get a headstart on that Saturday.
#8-PIPELINE: Ninth in this race last year after pushing the pace and likely again will be a in similar forward position. Banner year for trainer Cherie DeVaux, but can't recommend this one off his last several stakes bids.
#9-SENOR BUSCADOR: Deep-closing veteran has made just shy of $13 million, one of the richest careers in North American racing history. But his 3 starts since a fabulous Saudi-UAE run this spring have not inspired confidence he's anywhere near his best form. Fifth in the Breeders' Cup Classic was a decent effort, but not sure he's in as good of form as he was when second in this race a year ago.
#10-COASTAL MISSION: Charles Town legend has proven himself many times on the road, including victories in the Parx Mile and the local Cigar Mile prep, the Forty Niner, in his most recent starts. Jockey Arnaldo Bocachica made a middle move with Coastal Mission in last year's Cigar Mile before flattening out to fifth. Patience displayed in the Forty Niner will be the blueprint Saturday if he's good enough.
#11-POST TIME: Maryland-bred millionaire went national this year with success, winning the Carter at Aqueduct and hitting the board in the Met Mile, Whitney and Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile. Brittany Russell trainee has an uncanny ability to be push-button once straightened for home, often looking like he's spinning his wheels just prior. Length of stretch at Aqueduct plays well for him.
Most Certain Exotics Contender:
POST TIME is 14-14 in the trifecta lifetime and has a beneficial outside post draw with a long run to the only turn.
Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
LAW PROFESSOR has some back class on the re-rise and loves the track.
Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$100 win POST TIME.
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