The Lead:
Aqueduct hosts Saturday's Grade 2 $500,000 Cigar Mile, the northeast's biggest prize left on the 2023 calendar. The main event caps a 10-race card with a final post of 4:12 pm ET. The Cigar Mile also anchors four consecutive stakes, which roll through with the Demoiselle, Go For Wand and Remsen as lead-ins.
Field Depth:
Grade 2 winners abound in this 12-horse lineup, including a trio who also are Grade 1-placed, namely SENOR BUSCADOR, HIGH OAKS and HOIST THE GOLD. Other Grade 2 victors include EVERSO MISCHIEVOUS and THREE TECHNIQUE. Runners like PIPELINE, DR ARDITO and ACCRETIVE are Grade 1 or Grade 2-placed.
Pace:
More than half of these want to be in the first few spots down the long backstretch run, making this a potentially very hot pace projection. The established finishers like SENOR BUSCADOR, THREE TECHNIQUE, HIGH OAK and DR ARDITO could be in the best position to take advantage late.
Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.
1-COASTAL MISSION: Top West Virginia-bred in training has won 6 in a row and 9 of his last 10. The notable loss was his only venture outside Charles Town, off the board in a Laurel sprint stakes. Trainer Runco had a similar WV-bred Researcher back in 2008-'09 capable of coming to the Big A and winning the G3 Queen's County. Not impossible here.
2-EVERSO MISCHIEVOUS: Three-year-old is two photo-finish heads away from being unbeaten in 6 starts and trainer Brad Cox got the local prep win here in the Grade 2 Forty Niner (pictured above) to answer the track and distance questions. Doesn't have big advantage over DR ARDITO and ACCRETIVE to play with, so he'll have to be improving again. Sophomores have won the Cigar Mile 3 times in the last 7 years.
3-SENOR BUSCADOR: Rallying miler-type was stretched beyond his best distance in the Breeders' Cup Classic, but didn't embarrass himself at all. He won last year's Ack Ack at Churchill Downs the last time matched in a one-turn mile like this and is a highly reliable sort to give his best efforts. Junior Alvarado takes the mount for the first time, and he won this race with Flat Out in 2013.
4-CASCALS: First of three Chad Brown trainees entered as that barn looks to add to 2016 and 2018 Cigar Mile scores. Most lightly raced and unproven runner in this field with 3 starts and exiting an allowance-runner-up in his only start of 2023 after 11 months away. Jose Ortiz and Brown teamed to win this in '18 with Patternrecognition.
5-DR ARDITO: Aqueduct specialist has glaring 7: 5-2-0 local dirt record and should get a great pace set-up for his late kick. New York-bred hasn't been as effective venturing into open company, but his local prep in the Grade 2 Forty Niner showed positive improvement in that area. Capable of giving Chad Brown a third Cigar Mile trophy.
6-HIGH OAK: Juvenile star of 2021 hasn't notched a win since the Saratoga Special, but thirds in the Grade 1 Forego and Grade 3 Bold Ruler in recent outings are as good as anything he's put on his form the past two years. Bill Mott has had a monster year, won this race 3 times (including with its namesake Cigar), and jockey Luis Saez scored this in 2019 with Maximum Security & 2021 with Americanrevolution.
7-THREE TECHNIQUE: Mind Control won this last year at age 6, one of just 3 Cigar Mile winners since its 1988 inception to win at that age or older. This 6YO looks to follow suit while having a solid year in which the form is every bit as good as a year ago. Not consistent, but his best fits, and jockey Javier Castellano won this race in 2016 & 2017 and has had a renaissance 2023 in the saddle.
8-OFFALY COOL: Parx-based $30,000 claim has been a model of consistency in 7 starts since coming to trainer Jacinto Solis. All 10 career starts have been around 2 turns, so he's likely to find the speed here a bit more brilliant. Likely needs a tactical change to pull the upset.
9-CASTLE CHAOS: Exits a fast win at the local allowance level and this distance, but will be tested for stakes class. Versatile running style could come in handy. Prefer others.
10-ACCRETIVE: Beaten favorite when a close-up third in the Grade 2 Forty Niner, he was solidly backed after taking champion Cody's Wish to a 1-1/2 length decision in his prior start. That speaks to his obvious class even if this lightly raced 4YO hasn't been baptized by big stakes after big stakes. Capable.
11-HOIST THE GOLD: Sprinter has struggled beyond 7 furlongs, but was at this best two starts back in the Phoenix at Keeneland. Didn't threaten in the Breeders' Cup Sprint, but those were significantly better types. This distance and hot pace scenario sends me looking elsewhere.
12-PIPELINE: Eighth in this race two years ago, the 5YO recently changed barns from Chad Brown to Cherie DeVaux on the heels of a 6-race losing streak. No indication in 3 starts this year of an imminent wakeup, but has trained well at Keeneland for this.
Most Certain Exotics Contender:
DR ARDITO is 7-7 in the exacta at Aqueduct and the race shape sets up for his late move to get at least a share.
Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
HIGH OAK seems to be rounding back into form and should be finishing late in a race with pace.
Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$60 win DR ARDITO. $5 exacta key-box DR ARDITO with SENOR BUSCADOR, HIGH OAK, THREE TECHNIQUE and COASTAL MISSION ($40).
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