The Lead:
Cal Cup Day at Santa Anita reemerges Saturday as part of a special 5-day racing week that extends through Martin Luther King, Jr. Day on Monday. The 5 state-bred features were postponed a week ago due to the wildfires in the area, but return as part of an 11-race card that gets underway at 2:30 pm ET. The 13-runner Cal Cup Oaks has an overflow field of 13 entered (12 can go) for the turf mile and anchors the card in Race 11 (post time 7:30 pm ET). It's the final leg of the late pick 4, which features a 2 Million 1/ST Rewards Points Hit & Split when you bet with 1/ST BET and Xpressbet.
Field Depth:
Four stakes winners are among the cast of 3-year-olds, including TEQUILAANDTHERAPY, SUNSET GRAZEN, HEY JESSIE and IN THE AIR TONIGHT. GRATEFUL MY LOVE is stakes-placed. TEQUILAANDTHERAPY and IN THE AIR TONIGHT have held the strongest company lines overall.
Pace:
Inside-drawn LESS IS MORE and SUNSET GRAZEN have shown some ability to lead, but aren't absolute to be sent. Several stretch-out sprinters here could cloud the early pace, such as PAVEL IS APPEALING, MISO PHANSY, WE THE HOBBY and TAKE ANOTHER CARD. Can't recommend handicapping this race with confidence based on expected race shape.
Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.
#1-LESS IS MORE: First of 3 Doug O'Neill trainees in the field, this 4-start maiden keeps leading pilot Juan Hernandez after a Del Mar turf mile MSW second behind Cal Cup Oaks rival Jey Jessie. Nyquist filly has improved since moving to turf, but others look stronger.
#2-TEQUILAANDTHERAPY: O'Neill's second chance has victories on turf and dirt, including the Golden State Juvenile Fillies on the main track. Versatile running style and favorable draw make her an obvious contender as she's been right in the mix with several of these in recent stakes.
#3-SUNSET GRAZEN: Bottom-end maiden claiming graduate at Pleasanton came right back to score a wire-to-wire win in the Golden Gate Debutante on the Pleasanton dirt. Sire Grazen has been superb with SA turf stakes runners over the years, so the surface may suit. This will be her stiffest test.
#4-BIG SOIREE: NorCal shipper was no-match third at Pleasanton last out to Cal Cup Oaks rival Sunset Grazen and must make up 5 lengths on that one. Sire Mr. Big has had modest Santa Anita turf results over the years. Adds blinkers.
#5-CHILLY PHILLY: Santa Anita turf mile MSW winner in October for Tim Yakteen when last seen on turf. Didn't handle the marathon stretch at all at Los Al in the Soviet Problem Stakes most recently, moving to the fore before falling apart in the final sixteenth. Frosted filly has been a price in each start and will be again.
#6-TAKE ANOTHER CARD: Simon Callaghan trainee won her debut sprinting 6 furlongs at Santa Anita on December 29 and takes the class and distance challenge in one swoop Saturday. Bred top and bottom for distance and probably outran the genes to win sprinting first time. Jockey Frankie Dettori hops off to ride the stakes card at Fair Grounds on Saturday, leaving the seat open for Hector Berrios, which helps the price a bit.
#7-WE THE HOBBY: 4-start maiden was no-match late when second to Cal Cup Oaks rival Take Another Card last out over 6 furlongs. Sire Om was a top sprinter / miler but this one has only sprinted so far and not hinting for more ground. Feels like a turf sprinter for Peter Miller.
#8-MISO PHANSY: Leonard Powell trainee was a second-start maiden breaker over 6 furlongs on January 4. She wheels back 14 days later and stretches out and makes her stakes debut. Sharp win came with Lasix, but will be off Lasix on Saturday. Umberto Rispoli has the return ride.
#9-GRATEFUL MY LOVE: 3-race maiden missed by a nose when second in the Golden State Juvenile Fillies on dirt at Del Mar and was a rallying fourth in Los Al's Soviet Problem over a dirt mile. Danzing Candy filly has yet to try turf, but obviously fits with these despite a zero in the win column. Flavien Prat rides for Michael McCarthy, so you can't knock the connections.
#10-HEY JESSIE: Del Mar turf mile maiden breaker came back to win the dirt mile Soviet Problem at Los Al and seeks a third straight victory. Only defeat was a debut fourth in a Santa Anita turf mile when she overcame a rough start to finish less than 3 lengths behind Cal Cup Oaks rival Chilly Philly. Mid-pack running style could see her get a wide trip from this post under Kyle Frey. Arguably may be good enough to overcome that.
#11-PAVEL IS APPEALING: Dirt sprinter has won 2 of 3 for Doug O'Neill and is his third shot in the lineup. She's run exclusively at Del Mar, winning a maiden and allowance, but was a troubled fourth in the Golden State Juvenile Fillies when more than 4 lengths behind 3 rivals she's meet again Saturday. Sire Pavel has had subpar numbers with his turf offspring to date. Tough post for a first time around 2 turns, much less on turf.
#12-IN THE AIR TONIGHT: Early developer won at first asking on dirt at Santa Anita in late May, then took Del Mar's CTBA sprinting on dirt. All 6 races have been on the main track, and this consistent Stay Thirsty filly brings a solid finish each time. Dam Angel Allie won turf sprint allowance races at Santa Anita and Canterbury. Ground loss an issue from this draw and her style.
(AE) #13-MUSICAL NUMBER: Maiden claiming graduate won her first 2 starts before a flat fifth in the Soviet Problem at Los Al. Yet to try turf, but some pedigree for it on the damside. Trainer Dean Pederson won with his first 3 starters of the current meet with limited strikes.
Most Certain Exotics Contender:
No obvious answer here, but TEQUILAANDTHERAPY has 5 straight superfecta finishes and is proven over the turf mile trip and in stakes company -- with the benefit of a great post-2 draw.
Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
SUNSET GRAZEN is well-drawn, gotten good quickly and at 20-1 in the morning line has some pedigree to appreciate the move to grass.
Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$10 exacta key-box TEQUILAANDTHERAPY with TAKE ANOTHER CARD, GRATEFUL MY LOVE, HEY JESSIE and IN THE AIR TONIGHT ($80). $5 exacta key-box TEQUILAANDTHERAPY with SUNSET GRAZEN, CHILLY PHILLY ($20).
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